I wish someone would poll likely shifts in support.

[LaurenOlimina]

I'm not certain Biden automatically gets the Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar voters. I'm wondering which direction they might jump if their candidate drops out.

[Mike 03]

1. Good question

Last week's debate had me wondering if the campaigns were doing internal polling on exactly this (second choices, voting shifts from candidate A to candidate B) that might possibly explain some of their more puzzling strategic decisions during that debate.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. He would need their endorsements. And doubt they would give it.

Most of Amy and Pete go to Biden. Most of Warren go to Bernie.

[LaurenOlimina]

10. Not according to the poll. Pete's followers are not big Biden fans.

According to the poll mentioned elsewhere: https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Warren followers go:
Bernie Sanders
38%
Amy Klobuchar
16%
Joe Biden/Pete Buttigieg
14%

Pete followers go:
Michael Bloomberg
22%
Amy Klobuchar
22%
Bernie Sanders
20%

Biden followers go:
Bernie Sanders
33%
Michael Bloomberg
24%
Elizabeth Warren
14%

They didn't rank Amy.

[Moderateguy]

12. The Biden followers numbers do not make sense to me:

Bernie and Biden are miles apart on policy. It just does not sound plausible that Biden supporters would go to Bernie as their second choice. Same for Sanders supporters 2nd choice: 24% Biden and 15% Bloomberg? How are they able to justify from wanting M4A, free college, student loan forgiveness to switching to a candidate who do not support those policies?

[LaurenOlimina]

13. DU diehards tend to be more doctrinaire than the public at large.

It gives a false sense of clarity that does not match up to the reality of the public at large. For many, Bernie is the next strongest Democrat. He has a large campaign machine, credibility, authenticity and a clear message. If your number one reason for selecting Biden was the untried assertion that "he could beat Trump," then when Biden tanks, you'll go with the next Democrat in the line. Hell, 20% of Bloomberg supporters say Bernie is their second choice.

[Moderateguy]

14. That makes sense.. Thanks!

[judeling]

3. Always an interesting question

It will depend on the order they drop out actually and the state.

First you have to understand the second choices in the main are not initially deeply considered choices. People just don't look to hard at the next in line. That changes a bit over time.

When actually tracked with panels it appears that people only land on their stated second choice around 30% of the time at least initially.

Looking at the caucuses for a clue it appears that Klobuchar voters when given a choice tend to go to Warren and Biden in about equal numbers. Buttigieg voters tend to go to Klobuchar Biden and Warren in about equal numbers. Warren voters tend to go to Klobuchar then Sanders the most. Most of the Steyer voters in Nevada looked to have gone to Sanders but that may be misleading demographically.

[Mike 03]

6. Valuable information

especially that sentence about stated second choices materializing about 30% of the time.

That might complicate efforts to formulate certain aspects of strategy, such as whom to attack (unless a candidate subscribes to the theory you always attack the front runner).

[Cal Carpenter]

4. Morning Consult tracks second choice picks

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

It is a graphic about halfway down the page. You have hover or tap the candidate's picture to see where their support would go according to their poll.

It's a national poll, and I dont know how accurate it is, but it has been interesing to watch the trends over time.

They'll probably release updated results in a day or two, they poll nonstop and release updates once a week.

[LaurenOlimina]

5. Thanks! That's what I wanted.

Sanders gets 20% of Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters, 33% of Biden supporters and an unsurprising 38% of Warren support.

He has a lower unfavorability rating than Biden, Bloomberg, Warren or Gabbard.

He is likely to be a strong second choice at the moment.

[Cal Carpenter]

7. You're welcome!

I'm a bit of a polling nerd this time around. I constantly have to remind myself that probably half or more are probably bunk, lol. But the trends and patterns are so interesting.

[judeling]

8. yes that is true

And more so whe you map out actual results to the polls.

[squirecam]

9. I think Biden is more interested

In where Bloomberg voters go if they start to dislike him. Most of them seemed to come from Biden, so hopefully they return to him.

[LaurenOlimina]

11. see above for the link

BLOOMBERG SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
28%
Pete Buttigieg/Bernie Sanders
20%
Amy Klobuchar/Elizabeth Warren
10%