South Carolina is even more important than we all say it is this year

[Tom Rinaldo]

All year a lot of us have been having a running debate about what America is looking for from a Democratic Party Presidential nominee to depose Trump: Either someone who promises a steady hand with sane familiar though improved policies that can appeal to suburban Republicans, mainstream Democrats and centrist Independents, binding them together for a winning Democratic coalition in the fall; or a populist figure fervently fighting for Americans who the super wealthy increasingly have left behind, a candidate who offers a sharp break from the status quo with a bold vision for reversing the growing income inequality and deeply rooted financial insecurity that has built up over decades for people living pay check to pay check.

Seemingly those two possible paths forward are contradictory, but there are only three candidates left with any plausible path forward to the nomination that doesn't involve a whole lot of wheeling and dealing at a brokered Democratic Convention. They are Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Michael Bloomberg, arrayed from left to right in that order. That puts Biden at the center of our plausibly viable field, and South Carolina will largely determine whether that center can still hold.

It is my strong conviction that Michael Bloomberg is essentially impersonating the type of steady hand sane familiar policies alternative for Democrats that Joe Biden actually personifies. If Joe Biden regains his sea legs in South Carolina, and keeps gathering strength from there, it is conceivable to me that he could win the nomination without totally fracturing our Democratic Coalition. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden both supported John Kerry's 2004 presidential run, Michael Bloomberg supported George W. Bush. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden both display strong affinities for people who work hard to just get by. Michael Bloomberg pointed out at the last debate that he too worked hard while earning 60 Billion dollars.

It won't be easy but I think either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders have a chance of preventing the total fracture of our Democratic coalition after the Summer convention. Michael Bloomberg does not. The crowds Bernie is drawing on the stump are real people, not Russian trolls and bots. Younger voters of all races largely identify with the politics Bernie Sanders represents, but almost all of them can look at least somewhat fondly back at the Obama/Biden Administration, in light of what followed that team into the White House. Michael Bloomberg is a giant right leap too far, for many of them, and Joe Biden oozes charisma compared to Bloomberg.

South Carolina will give us a much better sense of whether the main alternate candidate to Bernie Sanders in this race will be Joe Biden, or Michael Bloomberg. That difference is profound.

[katmondoo]

1. Bloomberg is looking good, still have hopes for Warren

[jalan48]

2. If a former Bush/Cheney Republican becomes our nominee I would say our Party is dead.

[Gothmog]

3. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. It should!

Steyer is really fading in this poll. Biden may get the result he needs.