I can put it another way

[Recursion]

If Sanders can actually get a youth turnout that's within 25% of Obama's in 2008, then I don't care how insufferably smug his campaign is, because they would be winners and winners get to be insufferably smug. You can call my policies milquetoast and quisling and neoliberal all you want if you can pull those votes.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Socialism will change a lot of people's minds

GOP Trump turnout will be far higher than McCain drew in 2008

[TwilightZone]

2. The problem is that we've been hearing that promise for five years.

And the massive youth voter revolution has yet to materialize.

And yet, contrary to reality, Sanders is *still* making those claims.

"Sen. Bernie Sanders claimed there was a “huge voter turnout” among young caucusgoers in Iowa this year, saying the turnout was “even higher than Obama’s extraordinary victory in 2008.” In fact, about 10,300 fewer young voters turned out this year than in 2008."

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/sanders-spins-young-voter-turnout-in-iowa/

Further, a 25% gap is massive. We need record turnout to beat Trump in November, not turnout similar to 2016 or substantially below 2008.

[Recursion]

3. 75% of 2008's youth turnout is all we need, because the cohort is bigger and browner

That's my cocktail napkin calculation, at least. But, yeah: that happening in the primaries would be a better argument for it than anything else, and it hasn't happened yet.

[redqueen]

4. Any metrics on how many Dem voters don't even pay attention till we have a candidate?

I know I've talked to plenty. They just aren't interested in primaries. Go figure.

[TwilightZone]

5. So, you have specific data for how that will win WI, MI, PA, FL, and/or AZ?

Otherwise, it's just a dart thrown at a board while blindfolded.

[Recursion]

7. Traficant voters are how Sanders would win WI, MI, and PA

FL and AZ are complete lost causes if Sanders gets the nom

[Squinch]

6. Except for all the years he's promised it, it has never happened.