A Sanders-plurality convention is a nightmare scenario

[Recursion]

This literally keeps me up at night.

As much as I distrust Sanders I would rather have him hit the convention with a majority than with a plurality.

[mikeysnot]

1. yes, lets make up scenarios and act like they really happened.

wring hands....





Clutch pearls.

[uponit7771]

2. Sanders has no historical swing state appeal outside of MOE, Biden has the most so a plurality

... would rip shit up along Sanders base.

The fact that there wont be a majority shows we don't want him

"Many elements of the party were against him" ... this is literally what someone posted about McGovern ... same can be said about Sanders.

[Recursion]

4. Oh believe me I know

But if Sanders comes in with 40% of pledged delegates and the other campaigns combine for 60%... well, that's nightmare fuel for me.

[uponit7771]

28. Yep

[Garrett78]

11. You keep saying this. What do you mean by "historical?"

[uponit7771]

29. Meaning no flash polling but a 2 to 3.month record

[jmg257]

16. Sorry to bug you - but I have seen this numerous times...what is meant by MOE?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Margin Of Error

[Mariana]

25. That line has been copy/pasted into just about every thread

in the Primaries forum, whether it's relevant to the topic or not.

MOE = margin of error

[jmg257]

27. Thank you, both. I have seen it often, and thought that might what it be, but didn't seem to make

sense as read/written.


Thought MIGHT be some reference to new England? Maine? Ohio?

Cheers!

[uponit7771]

36. Needs to be said 1234324 32 times more.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

33. You keep saying that but he's on his fourth primary run and has yet to win a single state.

Including Nevada last week. He received less than half the votes than Bernie received.

[uponit7771]

37. Irrelevant to the point of swings states during the GE, I know you understand this though

[Turin_C3PO]

3. Agree.

A brokered convention would split the party between moderates and lefties.

[Steelrolled]

15. You mean like it is right now?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. It's not a nightmare at all... just nominate Bernie, who'll be leading in the popular vote!!

That's what Democrats rightfully promote as the foundation of a democracy... so, let's practice what we preach!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Recursion]

7. And that infuriating insouciance is part of the nightmare

I get it: you literally don't care that a majority of Democrats want somebody else. It just doesn't register with you. I get that. That's why I stay up at night.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. You dont get that more Democrats by a WIDE margin want Bernie more than any other single candidate.

So, you prefer that a small group of prominent Democratics, not the voters, pick our nominee at the convention, We The People be damned... I get that, but it's infuriating and why I stay up at night!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Recursion]

10. No, you don't, and that's exactly the problem

There's nobody who commands a majority of the party. That's not a good thing.

[empedocles]

31. 5 Dem candidates are splitting the Dem majority vote to represent the Dem Party

and beat trump.

BS represents a minority [socialists], to represent the majority Dem Party with a socialist BS, with limited support among Dems, and far less among the GE.

[PETRUS]

32. No, not at the moment.

I'll have to dig, but I think I've seen polling where the question is "which of the following candidates are you considering voting for, choose as many as you like" and more than one candidate breaks 50%. That's not much, but it's something.

[JFlash]

6. I have thought of that too

More than any of the other candidates, his supporters seem like the most likely to be childish, sore losers.

[JudyM]

39. Your own comment disproves your point.

Calling people “childish, sore losers” reflects poorly.

[Walleye]

8. I like the idea of a contested convention

Where’s our spirit of adventure?

[Coleman]

12. Remember, if nobody wins on the first ballot

The super delegates enter the picture. And they tend to be mainstream Dems.

[Walleye]

13. You mean Democrats would choose their nominee?

[Recursion]

14. At this point that would be a fucking disaster

We're basically in the position of adults who need the best behavior from toddlers. It's not an enviable place to be.

[TwilightZone]

35. I think the toddlers and the adults are the reverse of what you suggest.

There's only one candidate who agreed to how this would work (and was significantly involved in making the rules) whose supporters still continually complain about it and act like they have no idea what is going on and no understanding of the process.

Everyone knows how it works. Everyone knew how it worked going in. Everyone knows that it takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination, and that applies both before and at the convention. The same rules apply to both.

The only candidate suggesting that the rules be ignored is Bernie Sanders, solely because he would benefit from the change. Sanders supports whatever will help him the most at any given time, as evidenced by his complete 180 on superdelegates in 2016 and his declaration of a win in Iowa based on irrelevant voter totals.

If you're looking for the adults in the room, I would suggest you're looking in the wrong direction.

[SidDithers]

17. He needs 1990 delegates before the convention...

or 2376 delegates on the second ballot.

In a multi-candidate primary, it's unlikely that any one candidate will secure 50% of the delegates before the convention.

Sanders needs to be able to convince delegates committed to other candidates to come to him after the first ballot. And he needs to convince the "Democratic establishment" superdelegates to support him on the second ballot.

So far, he's doing a bang-up job with that.

Sid

[Recursion]

18. Neither outcome is very attractive (nt)

[SidDithers]

21. Yup...nt

Sid

[Garrett78]

20. 538 has his odds at 47%. Those odds could go way up depending on South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

[MrsCoffee]

26. Or way down.

[Garrett78]

30. Yes. Up is more likely, but down is possible.

[aikoaiko]

22. Can they give it to someone not running in 2020? Hillary?

[Recursion]

23. After the first ballot it's the Wild West

Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, James K. Polk...

[Ace Rothstein]

38. That would be a surefire way to guarantee another 4 years of Trump.

[MrsCoffee]

24. Everything about him is a nightmare.

There is not a damn thing wrong with the Democratic Platform. It is a thing of beauty. The fake fucking revolution is against a made up boogeyman. A recycled fake revolution Paul Manafort and Tad Devine cooked up for Putin's puppet in Ukraine. Funny how Sanders and Trump both benefit from this ridiculous only the One true populist can save us baloney.

How do people buy into this?

[msongs]

34. not if u stick to the math and ignore the messiah/savior thing nt