So we're ALREADY trying to lower expectations and delegitimize South Carolina TOO?

[Bonobo]

IOWA: (PRE-SANDERS) "They've got a solid track record of picking the nominee! Since 1972, they've picked the nominee 7 out of 10 times!"

IOWA (POST-SANDERS) "It means nothing. The system was flawed, and the people are too white."
----------------------
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PRE-SANDERS) "They've got a solid track record of picking the nominee! Since 1952, they've picked the nominee 9 out of 15 times!"

NEW HAMPSHIRE (POST-SANDERS): "New Hampshire is too white, and Bernie lives next door. Besides, he only barely won! Just wait for Nevada. Now THAT'S a representative state."
----------------------
NEVADA (PRE-SANDERS): "First state in the West! Nevada is super representative with minorities! Finally they'll hava a voice! Plus all the unions!"

NEVADA (POST-SANDERS): "Flawed process! Russian interference! Tainted results! Yeah, Bernie got a higher percentage than the bottom three combined, but it was because they BULLIED people!"
----------------------
SOUTH CAROLINA (4 WEEKS AGO) "Biden's got this. It's his stronghold! Black voters are the core of the Democratic party! Finally minorities will have a voice!"

SOUTH CAROLINA (NOW): "It's an open primary! The Republicans are going to vote for Sanders cause THAT'S who they want to run against Trump! Plus the Russians! I wouldn't put to more importance on it!"

[FirstLight]

1. yeah...

I see that train coming miles away...


I'm tuning it ALL out... fuck them. I agree, it's about NON-Establishment...repub/dem all the same. (Bloomberg *cough*)

[Hassin Bin Sober]

2. Bazinga!

[SMC22307]

3. Bingo. I'm still undecided at this point...

but can't wait for March 3rd!

[uponit7771]

4. Sanders endorses Castro's literacy program, kiss Florida good bye

[OliverQ]

10. Dems were unlikely to win Florida anyway.

But with all the ex-felons and new Puerto Ricans now eligible to vote, you never know. Cubans aren't the only people in Florida.

And you act like your candidate is guaranteed to win Florida. He's polling the same as Bernie, within the margin of error. The only candidate polling well in Florida right now is Bloomberg.

Maybe you should stop attacking Bernie when your candidate is doing worse than he is?

[uponit7771]

11. Then what is our path to winning White House without Florida? Come on people Swing states matter

... more than the all the other stuff

[OliverQ]

14. If Dems take back Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA

Dems win the electoral college. Those are the only states that allowed Trump to win. Florida made no real difference.

Obviously winning Florida would be nice, because it would offset a potential bad result in one of the rust belt states, but Florida isn't actually required for Dems to win. It is however required for Republicans.

Also, Bernie is polling only 2 points behind Trump in Texas. Texas just registered over 1 million new people setting an all time record. Beto only lost to Cruz by a couple hundred thousand. 1 million+ new voters, plus massive turnout by young people, plus Bernie's dominance with Latinos could actually flip Texas. If Dems were to win Texas this year, Trump cannot win the electoral college.

Here is a map showing the typical Dem win path. https://www.270towin.com/maps/mL0PR

[uponit7771]

15. Sanders numbers in WI vs Trump are horrible

[OliverQ]

16. Every Democrat's numbers against Trump in Wisconsin are horrible

right now. Nobody is polling more than 2 points above him. However, every Democrat is beating him there and Wisconsin has a long history of Socialism and Progressivism. Bernie won 71 out of 72 districts there in the 2016 primary.

Wisconsin and PA are our 2 weakest states right now, but Dems are still beating Trump atm.

[uponit7771]

17. Not for the last 3 months, Biden at least was within MOE and no one is going to trend the state

... based on one poll but for the last 3 months Biden has been on MOE everyone else including Sanders has stank

[sheshe2]

19. I just read three of your posts.

I thought your candidate of choice was Warren, not Bernie.

I will be voting for Warren on Super Tuesday.

[OliverQ]

21. Warren is my favorite, but based on her

current results so far, it seems unlikely she's going to win and she's polling fairly poorly against Trump.

The only candidate with policies similar to Warren who is doing well is Bernie. I don't get to vote until April, so Warren may not even be in the race by the time I get to vote in the primary.

[evertonfc]

22. actually Steve Schale

says Florida is very much in play with turnout. Shit, we won in 08 and 12.

[OliverQ]

23. Well currently everyone is polling poorly there except

Bloomberg and after all the corrupt nonsense with DeSantis and Rick Scott in 2018, I'm not convinced Florida will be a fair election.

[evertonfc]

24. fair, I dunno but if South Florida turns out, we win.

[Deero]

47. ridiculous

Obama won Florida twice and Trump won by less than 1.5%.

Florida is clearly a toss up to anyone who doesnt hug Castro.

[OliverQ]

50. Nobody is hugging Castro.

[yuiyoshida]

5. omg BONOBO haven't seen you in while!

Hisashiburi Bonobo san, choshi wa dou? Koko de aete ureshī

[Bonobo]

13. Genki desu yo!

Kochi mo ureshii!

Korona uirusu kowai ne.

[yuiyoshida]

38. sou ka

すてきな一日を！

[k2qb3]

6. It is a bit disconcerting isn't it?

Crossovers and Russians have nothing to do with the shifting polls, that's just the canddidates and their performances.

I'm in SC, and I can tell you there's lots of support for Sanders here. Biden's support here was mostly a reflection of Obama's, and Joe just isn't Obama.

Steyer is a complete mystery to me, I don't understand his campaign at all. I've seen hundreds of his ads over the last six months and all they've really told me is he wants to give tax money to black people and they seem to like that idea, which of course is a very constructive message in SC...

I've got lots of conservative acquaintances and most of them are more worried about Bernie than anyone else at this point. I'm really not seeing any organized crossover vote benefitting one candidate over another, far as the Trumpers are concerned he's got it in the bag regardless.

[Sloumeau]

7. Who exactly are you quoting, and could you provide a link if possible? :) nt

[Garrett78]

8. Looking ahead to Super Tuesday:

Alabama: open primary, red state, meaningless
American Samoa: caucus, who cares
Arkansas: see Alabama
California: bunch of potheads
Colorado: see California
Maine: it's near Vermont
Massachusetts: see Maine
Minnesota: home of weirdos like Jesse Ventura
North Carolina: um, Russia
Oklahoma: see North Carolina
Tennessee: see Alabama
Texas: see Alabama
Utah: closed primary but, you know, Russia
Vermont: need I say more?
Virginia: open primary, starts with same letter as Vermont
Democrats abroad: bunch of Russians

[delisen]

9. Are you suggesting we pretend that Russia is not acting on Sanders' behalf?

Sanders has acknowledged it, albeit late, and denounced it.

The Republican Party operation to vote Sanders in the SC primary has been announced by those engaged in the operation.
Do you want voters to ignore these facts.

I would suggest you encourage voters to learn more.

[ripcord]

12. When you have proof Sanders solicited Russian aid let me know

Until then I am totally dismissing this argument, Putin is trying to sow discord and you are walking behind him with the watering can.

[delisen]

25. Soliciting aid is not the issue. Addressing and countering aid is an issue.

Denial is a problem. You may dismiss but the rest of us have to protect our democratic institutions.

Personal attacks and accusations such as your somewhat strange and somewhat amusing analogy are not helpful.

When it comes to constitutional issues fortunately many of us will not be intimidated. We have to go where the facts lead us.

When you are ready join us.

[ripcord]

31. Sanders has abosolutely no control over Putin's actions

You are giving Putin the power to disrupt the election, next thing you know you will be saying that Bernie has to withdraw because of Putin's unsolicited assistance.

[MrsCoffee]

46. He didn't speak up about it. In fact, he knew they were helping and still publicly claimed

Russian bots were trying to harm his campaign.

And don’t come at me with the classified bullshit. That’s Trump’s line. IC wouldn't tell the campaign to keep it quiet because that, in itself, would help the Russian efforts.

[JudyM]

18. So it looks like it's only a legitimate win if someone other than Sanders does the winning?

[still_one]

28. So is the New York article false?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/the-party-raiders-of-south-carolina

[emmaverybo]

20. It is all over internet. Comments on a news article, whatever. It is legal, they say. Republicans

will be voting for Bernie. Don’t worry, though. Does not matter how some will feel. Nothing to do about it. If Bernie wins with help, he still wins. And no one will believe, no one here, that he had
anything to do with it or could stop it.

[SidDithers]

26. ...

Sid

[still_one]

27. Is this New Yorker article a legimate concern or not?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/the-party-raiders-of-south-carolina

[Bonobo]

29. I would not say 100% no. BUT...

This being floated on DU at this time is not indicative of a real concern, but rather (IMO) indicative of an attempt to de-emphasize the looming disappointment in SC.

Why? Because even if the SC "raiders" are an issue, it is entirely an OPINION as to whether they would vote for Sanders because of the issue of easily losing to Trump etc. It's the same as the Russian tampering. We cannot really know that it is because Sanders is an easy win or because it is an attempt to sow discord.

[still_one]

32. You realize that South Carolina has cancelled their republican presisdential primary, and that South

Carolina does not have registration by party. In primaries, you can vote in only one party's primary, and since there won't be a republican primary, and you don't identify a voter by party, there is no way to know if a republican is voting in the South Carolina primary or not

As for Russian tampering, the only "tampering" I could see at this stage would be through social media propaganda, and I don't know how easy that is to determine.

I do appreciate your thoughtful response though, and agree with at least 75% of it

[Garrett78]

36. I'll put it this way, it's nothing new and is not thought to have ever had a significant impact.

I suppose there's always the possibility that it could be a deciding factor, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

[still_one]

37. The reason why I think it is a concern this time is because trump is in the WH, South Carolina

republican party cancelled republican presidential primary, and because South Carolina does not have registration by party and In primaries, you can vote in only one party's primary, I don't think there is a way to determine if a voter in the Democratic primary is a republican or Democrat, which makes it impossible to really know

[SCantiGOP]

30. I'm not supporting Bernie (yet)

But that was a great OP.

(btw, I’m in SC so my vote, unlike most Democrats, actually means something due to the timing of the primaries.
We need to put Iowa, NH, Nevada and SC on the sidelines for the selection process)

[still_one]

34. I think South Carolina is much more significant in the selection process than the two

caucus states, Iowa and Nevada, and NH which isn't demographically diverse enough

[W_HAMILTON]

43. Surely you aren't going to vote for Klobuchar in the SC primary, are you?

[SCantiGOP]

44. As of today, Klobuchar would be my choice

But I could end up voting for Bernie, Biden or Warren.
Steyer and Bloomberg are the only two definitely ruled out.

[W_HAMILTON]

45. She is almost guaranteed to not meet the viability threshold there...

...which means you won't really even be having a say in who wins the nomination.

I just don't understand votes for Klobuchar at this point.

[SCantiGOP]

49. I was told the same thing when Bill Clinton ran

I was told the same thing when I signed up to work for Obama months before the Iowa caucus.
L

[CentralMass]

33. Yes and the full court press from the Bernie haters is hitting a fever pitch.

[Moderateguy]

51. That's a good strategy IMO

Get all of Bernie’s negatives out now so Trump is running on stale information

[CentralMass]

54. You are probably right on that.

[JackInGreen]

35. It's so damn obvious

The folks claiming to miss it have to be purposefully obtuse or lying.

[world wide wally]

39. Be honest...

if you were Trump, wouldn't you want to run against Bernie too?
Trump and Putin worked their asses off to slime Biden and his family and now Putin is trying to help Bernie out a little... I wonder why

[Bonobo]

40. Russia is trying to divide Centrists and Leftists.

That way, whoever takes the nomination is weakened.

[doxyluv13]

41. Of course they will. But it doesn't matter. They're blind to what's right in front of them.

n/t

[AverageJoe]

42. Bingo! n/t

[Tipperary]

48. Ha!

Perfect.

[AlexSFCA]

52. great s

great summary

[Gothmog]

53. Our new South Carolina poll finds a 2 person race in the state-

Link to tweet