There are two only two candidates with a plausible path to the nomination

[DemocratSinceBirth]

And one of those candidate's paths is extraordinarily narrow. It's time for the others to seriously consider dropping out.

Them's the facts!

ON EDIT-I won't be coy.

Only Bernie and Joe have plausible paths to the nominations and the former's path is infinitely more plausible. Joe has a narrow path because black folks and older folks haven't abandoned him yet.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. If you say so.

[Shrek]

2. 47 states still haven't voted

There are lots of paths to the nomination.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I won't be coy.

Only Bernie and Joe have plausible paths to the nominations and the former's path is infinitely more plausible. Joe has a narrow path because black folks and older folks haven't abandoned him yet.

[Garrett78]

19. Not without substantial support from POC there isn't.

It really is that simple. Most remaining candidates have far too little POC support.

[Demsrule86]

23. Your candidate needs to drop out as you have no AA voter support and will not win...consider if Pete

stays in and Sanders wins and loses the general...what will happen politically to Pete...he is a young man and could go places in the party but not if he acts as a spoiler...I say the same thing to Klobachar...Warren will not run again as she is above 70 but she won't win and needs to go also. I would hope Steyer leaves but I think he falls apart in South Carolina...but Pete can damage Biden who need big numbers for super Tuesday ...If Buttigieg keeps his numbers down, he basically help nominate Sanders...who in my opinion will lose badly...Pete will pay a political price if this happens... I know I will never vote for him in any future primary.

[emmaverybo]

29. Maybe Pete will realistically weigh his chances to win the nomination and the even less likely

odds of his winning the GE against his potential for a future run, say for the Senate, to position himself to go for the presidency down the line, political reputation intact. However, I think Pete Buttigieg buys into media and pundit hype that he is the second coming of Obama, JFK no less.

He isn’t. He can preserve his influence best by dropping out before S.C. Then he will be seen as having been a pioneer and fought for his particular changes, though his agenda was muddled with
an initial mission statement, quite broad, rather nebulous—to transform politics and the economy and to create generational change. Later, he would emerge with the Frederick Douglass plan. He was forced to keep that on the back burner because of a bad roll-out and the difficulty to reduce its scope and heft to sound-bites.

What a blue print such a wide-ranging plan could be however, as reparations get, hopefully, much more serious consideration and action is taken on many fronts to address historical inequities. Input from AA communities is needed, majorly! He sought none.

Still, Pete has a profound contribution to make ahead of him. He needs to do the work as Obama and JFK did. Both were more experienced by far than Pete.

[DonaldsRump]

3. Amazing you're still undecided!

Since you're certain it's now down to 2 and "realistically" 1.

I'm not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. At this point you could fit all their delegates into a breakout room at a Holiday Inn

This is about the path forward.

[Demsrule86]

24. Hopefully they will run out of money...and it would be for the good of the country as Sanders won't

beat Trump and by staying in they help Sanders. We have operation chaos in full swing...we need all the votes we can get to one candidate who can beat both Sanders and Trump, Biden. I doubt Warren cares, she won't run again. But the others may want a future run, and I swear they will get nothing from me if they try again ...no money and no votes in a primary because I would view them as spoilers. I won't be the only one either.

[jmg257]

7. Don't forget Doom and Gloomberg! $$$ buys a lot of support!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. All the money in the world can't buy him our nomination.

All the money in the world can't buy him our nomination especially after he was beclowned in the debate.

[jmg257]

9. I sure hope u r right!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I am confident of that. Bloomberg can muck things up though.

[Mike 03]

11. DemocratSinceBirth, I'm definitely not saying you're wrong, if anything

I believe you. But I'm curious: Why doesn't Bloomberg have a path?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That's a good question.

If someone tells me their candidate has a path to the nomination my first question is what parts of the Democratic constituency can propel him or her to victory. I would expect that person to provide data to support their claim. You can do it with any candidate.

What part(s) of the Democratic constituency can propel Bloomberg to victory?

Bernie has Latinos, some African Americans, the young, and the left. Joe has older folks and black folks. Bloomberg has those who are terrified of a second Trump term however they believe there are better candidates to prevent it.

[andym]

22. Bloomberg has older folks like Biden

As Joe has faltered, Bloomberg has picked up some of their support. Look at the Florida polls where Bloomberg was leading.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. That was before he was beclowned in the debate.

Now you might say that more people see Bloomberg's ads than see him debate but more people will read or see in the media how he was beclowned in the debates than see his ads.

[squirecam]

13. No one other than Joe or Bernie

Can actually win a majority of pledged delegates.

The most likely result is Bernie with a plurality and a contested convention.

[thesquanderer]

14. If by Milwaukee no one has a majority (very possible), then many candidates are plausible.

What is your rationale for assuming that it can only be Bernie or Joe?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Because they are likely to finish first and second based on their coalitions.

[thesquanderer]

18. I think it's too early to say it is likely that they will finish first and second. In fact...

...I think it's too soon to be certain Biden will even survive past Super Tuesday. And if he doesn't we will almost certainly have a different first and second than the two you mention.

Also, I'm not 100% sure that, if no one has a majority, that our nominee even has to BE one of the top two finishers, though I would agree that it is likely.

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. I think Bloomberg has a plausible path also, but it is a very dangerous one

It is based on Bloomberg having a bottomless wallet combined with panic within certain select circles of the Democratic Party over a possible Sanders candidacy COUPLED with the possibility of a brokered convention. Should Bloomberg gain the nomination at the convention due to a Stop Sanders campaign, I believe that would be political suicide for Democrats heading into the Fall. But it appears to be the path to the nomination that Bloomberg's team is trying to plot for their man.

Other than that, I agree.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Nah

There is no way Bloomberg emerges from a brokered convention. There is no constituency in our party that would go the ramparts for him, all the ad buys in the world notwithstanding.

[thesquanderer]

20. Maybe the question is whether there is a constituency who would go to the ramparts to stop Sanders?

If there is, do they automatically support whichever of the top two is not Sanders? If not, does that open up a path for the person in the #3 spot? Or does it assure Sanders the nomination? And maybe it depends on what the spread between these candidates are?

[Demsrule86]

26. I would vote for Bloomberg over Sanders and if the other moderates combined with operation

chaos spoils it for Biden, I will vote for Bloomberg in Ohio. I want to send Trump packing and Sander will lose a general. I would prefer Biden...but desperate times calls for desperate actions.

[Demsrule86]

27. I live in Ohio...there are near constant Bloomberg ads...and Bloomberg lawn signs are appearing in

Cleveland of all places! He has a great deal of money and few watch debates. He could win it outright.

[tritsofme]

21. This has become clear to me as well.

And if they do not have a plausible path the nomination, all they are doing is enabling a Sanders victory, their continued campaigns serve no other purpose.

[still_one]

28. Unfortunately I don't think that is going to happen

A lot of the candidates are hoping for a contested convention, where they think they will have a chance

That may or may not happen, and a contested Convention is just as risky as having a candidate which some feel is a liability. They both have the potential to lead to a divided party