What's this "insurmountable lead" business???

[LAS14]

I see DU posts and pundit columns lamenting that Bernie will have "an insurmountable lead" or words to that effect, if some moderates don't drop out. How insurmountable? So we get to a 2nd vote at the convention (no one is predicting he'll garner a majority before then). Individual candidates can't "make a deal" with him and give him their delegates. Delegates make their own decisions. If over 50% of the delegates definitely don't want Bernie, he's not getting the nomination. Right?

He's CERTAINLY not going to get the super delegates.

Where am I wrong about this?

tia
las

[jmg257]

1. Here ya go...explains it well...

https://www.axios.com/bernie-sanders-mike-bloomberg-delegate-race-bee5b692-a0ca-449a-a714-4c212ad15010.html

What they're saying: Kevin Sheekey, Bloomberg's top strategist, said:

Key takeaways
● As the race stands today, Sanders is poised to leave Super Tuesday with an over-400
delegate lead versus his next closest competitor (MRB) - a likely insurmountable advantage

"The fact is if the state of this race remains status quo — with Biden, Pete and Amy in the race on Super Tuesday — Bernie is likely to open up a delegate lead that seems nearly impossible to overcome."

"I don’t think many people understand the dire circumstances here."
Why it matters: Based on every national poll, plus steady access to money, Sanders is the indisputable — if underappreciated — frontrunner.

The Bloomberg campaign got high-profile validation of its theory:

David Plouffe, Barack Obama's 2008 campaign manager, tweeted in response to Nate Silver's delegate projections through Super Tuesday — which show Sanders with 41%, followed by Bloomberg and Joe Biden with 18% each.
"If this happens, Sanders would have a pledged delegate lead he’ll never relinquish."

[LAS14]

3. So does that mean that another candidate won't get 51% of the remaining 59%?

I'm responding to this bit of oyour post.

David Plouffe, Barack Obama's 2008 campaign manager, tweeted in response to Nate Silver's delegate projections through Super Tuesday — which show Sanders with 41%, followed by Bloomberg and Joe Biden with 18% each.
"If this happens, Sanders would have a pledged delegate lead he’ll never relinquish."

[jmg257]

6. Not if they all stay in...No way (they are saying).

● If Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar remain in the race despite having no path to
appreciably collecting delegates on Super Tuesday (and beyond), they will propel
Sanders to a seemingly insurmountable delegate lead by siphoning votes away from
MRB

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

2. Just Bernie people counting chicks before

The eggs hatch or not.

[jimfields33]

7. Didn't Biden believe he had this way before Iowa? That seemed to be the message.

[jimfields33]

4. CNN this morning were referring to him winning all but 3 states on Super Tuesday

He’s winning the grand prizes of California and Texas. After that the final third of the country will just genuinely go to him (he’ll lose only Florida in the remaining states). They claim this has been a natural occurrence in every primary election.

Time will tell.

[LAS14]

5. They aren't winner take all, right?? Of course the other candidates split the remaining vote. nt

[jimfields33]

8. You are right

But good number of delegates per state adds up pretty good.

[jmg257]

10. Here...you need to reach a threshold of 15% - he is only one that seems a sure thing...

Edit: sorry - this is Cali

Sanders outpaces his presidential rivals in claiming about a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters, 24 percent, according to a new Monmouth University Poll. Sanders is followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 17 percent, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 13 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 10 percent and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9 percent.

While both polls show Sanders with a plurality and well short of an outright majority, California’s proportional allocation system make the exact delegate count difficult to predict. Candidates can scoop up delegates if they break 15 percent in any congressional district; a separate statewide basket is distributed proportionally to every candidate who breaks 15 percent statewide.

If the vote is fractured such that only one or two candidates secure 15 percent of the entire California electorate, they would be the only ones to claim statewide delegates — a scenario that’s looking increasingly likely given the still-muddled field.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/02/20/poll-sanders-leads-democratic-race-in-california-1262513

[FBaggins]

13. They absolutely could be (effectively) winner take all

At least one California poll was quite close to Sanders getting almost everything.

[unc70]

14. No delegates unless over 15%

Theoretically, Bernie could get 35% of vote and win 100% of delegates if no other candidate received 15%. With many candidates, the odds for such things happening in individual states goes up. You even have several candidates who have dropped out still polling around 5%.

[LAS14]

11. A lot better (won popular vote)than if Sanders had been the candidate. Think McGovern and Goldwater.

[tiredtoo]

16. this is an assumption

No way to prove/disprove your statement. As for McGovern and Goldwater, that was 1972 it is now 2020. The times they are a changing.

[emulatorloo]

21. Super Delegates DID NOT select our nominee in 2016. Voters did.

Sanders lost by over 4 million votes.

Please correct your disinformation

[LiberalFighter]

24. There is this too.

Hillary had a majority with 2,205 of the pledged delegates out of 4,051 without the automatic delegates. Bernie had 1,846.

Bernie would had needed 536 out of 712 of the automatic delegates to get the majority. He only got 43.5 of them. And only 612 of the 712 were cast.

Out of 4,707 votes cast Hillary received 2,842 delegate votes well over the 2,382 needed. She was only 177 votes shy of the combined delegate majority while without the automatic delegates included.

[emulatorloo]

25. +1

[still_one]

12. No doubt those "establishment Democrats" that he equates with establishment republicans, are

thrilled with his message of unity

[FBaggins]

15. One major error there

There’s roughly a 1/3 chance that he will indeed get a majority before the convention. The chances go up sharply if none of the center-left lane candidates get out. Conversely... if Warren gets out his chances climb significantly.

[tiredtoo]

17. Ya but

I like Warren.

[Garrett78]

18. It isn't that "no one is predicting he'll garner a majority before then."

It's that there's currently about a 1 in 3 chance that he will, according to 538.

With every new bit of data, the odds change. After Super Tuesday or even after South Carolina, those odds could change pretty drastically.

[cwydro]

19. I don't see him doing well Super Tuesday, but who knows.

Obviously the press has a bone in its teeth and is salivating at a Bernie-dotard collision.

[madville]

22. Bernie could easily get well over half the delegates in CA

and a large chunk in TX, that's all he needs to have a great day.

[cwydro]

26. Time will tell.

I’m just hoping for no clusterfuck tonight!

[totodeinhere]

20. I think it's too early to predict what the super delegates would do if it gets to a second ballot.

If, and I know this is just an "if," Bernie wins Nevada and South Carolina and goes on to win a clear plurality of votes on Super Tuesday and beyond, then I think there might be quite a bit of pressure on the super delegates to fall into line behind Bernie. If Bernie falls just short of a majority and leads his next closet competitor by a large margin then I think it would be hard to deny him the nomination.

And if under that scenario he were denied the nomination I think it would be very divisive and not healthy for Democratic unity going into November.

[madville]

23. I agree, it's also

hard to predict what the pledged delegates would do in a second round as well once they are released. Warren may have a small amount that could align with Sanders. It may have to go through multiple rounds depending how large his lead may be.

[gulliver]

27. It conflates leading with winning the nomination, plus it's dumb.

Sanders has the pledged delegate lead until the center/left candidates pool their delegates and choose one from among their group. Then that candidate not only has an insurmountable lead but the nomination. The super delegates may not even need to play a role. It may be better if they don't, as Sanders would probably throw a tantrum if/when they would give the nomination to someone else. That's despite the fact that Sanders agreed to the rules going in.

I've also seen "commanding lead" and "double-digit lead"...same comment applies.