Trump is not polling very well. He's at 43.3% at 538*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

*https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


On the proverbial other hand the economy is in relatively good shape or is perceived as being in relatively good shape which is actually more important. This is an asset for Trump.

He is as likely as not to be re-elected and that should fear every right thinking American.

[uponit7771]

1. K&R, I don't know why RCP still ranks polls like rAssMussen so high !!

[FBaggins]

4. That's easy enough

It’s because their final polls are regularly closer to the actual election results.

Since you’re asking about RCP (rather than 538 - which grades then pretty low)... it’s worth noting that they were the closest in 2016 of all the polls that RCP tracks.

Some here have previously claimed that Rasmussen puts an intentional “secret sauce” on the number to influence the election and then takes the sauce off in the final days so that their numbers grade better... but I have yet to see anything beyond speculation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Even a blind squirrel can find an occasional nut.

Rasmussen predicted the wrong winner in 2012. They blew the mid terms by ten points and the Northam- Gillespie race by nine points. Try wrapping your head around that. The generic ballot was heavily polled and they missed it by ten points. What pollster does that? How irresponsible and stupid? Really?

There's a reason Nate Silver gives them a C+.

[uponit7771]

8. Nationally yes but national polls doesn't mean anything

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Because it's a data point.

538 includes a lot more polls so Rasmussen's influence is smaller.

[GanjaGrower]

2. And the polls showed him losing in a landslide to Hillary

Forgive me for being a little untrusting of the experts until I see him voted out of office

[Bucky]

17. That's not really true

Pretty accurate polling came in before the 2016 election

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

RealClearPolitics polling averages Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3%. She won it by 2.1%, well inside the three-point MoE.

Anyone expecting Clinton to have a landslide the week before the election happened was engaging in wishful thinking and not paying attention to objective research.

[FBaggins]

3. "Not polling well" is your own interpretation

Since that’s roughly ten point higher than on election day 2016... I suspect it’s wishful thinking on our part.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. You're referring to favorability ratings.

His approval ratings have actually declined since his inauguration:


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


No president has been re-elected in the modern era with an approval rating as low as him. On the proverbial other hand no president has lost running during a good economy. Hence the tension. Hence my original post.

[Bucky]

11. You've forgotten his secret weapon...

.... , my dear comrade.

[uponit7771]

14. ..👍🏼

[OliverQ]

9. That's about 40% higher than it should be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. There are people that are happy with Trump.

They're doing okay and infinitely more important to them are the people they dislike are miserable.

[uponit7771]

15. He gets a 10 - 20% float from Fauk News

[Bucky]

10. Yeah, but...

I still find that 43% embarrassing and abominable

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. That 43% are besides themselves with joy because people they hate like us are miserable.

[andym]

16. too high--higher than was polling in 2016. nt.

[Bucky]

18. Nope

The week before the election, average polling had Trump losing 45.5% to 42.2%.

In the final results he lost 48.2% to 46.1%. So Clinton gained almost three points at the last minute compared to Trump gaining four points at the last minute.

When you factor in James Comey's little 11th hour sabotage stunt, that has him actually just about where he was for years ago.

The real villain this time around will be ramped-up Republican voter suppression efforts. Our best strategy this time around will be wrapping up voter enthusiasm among first-time voters.

[helpisontheway]

19. National numbers do not matter. He is winning in the battleground

states that we need. I know Wisconsin definitely had him up. I can’t remember the others.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Elliott G Morris said the Dems probably need to win the pop vote by at least 2.5% to win the EC

[Calista241]

21. I'm convinced his actual support is much higher.

We've spent the last 3 years telling people they're racist if they support / voted for Trump. It shouldn't surprise us that people will lie when asked if they support him?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. The shy Trumper?

A lot of polls that go into the average are conducted online, that would eliminate the need to tell a fellow human being you like Trump.