Any chance of a surprise tomorrow?

[musicblind]

Any chance of a surprise tomorrow?

If so, what kind of surprise?

Things I'd consider a surprise:

- Sanders doesn't win.

- Sanders gets 100% of delegates

- Warren or Klobuchar surge past Buttigieg and Biden into second place.

- That one poll that had Steyer winning somehow turns out not to be an outlier.

- Massive turnout on a historic scale.

- Extremely disappointing turnout on a historic scale.

- The African American and Latino vote goes to someone not named Biden or Sanders. (meaning recent polls were off)

Do you think any of these things are possibilities or will tomorrow be boring?

What other surprises do you think might happen?

[stonecutter357]

1. Any chance of a surprise tomorrow? lol mind in gutter !

[Tarc]

2. There's a poll show Steyer in the lead? Where is this?

Who did they poll, his neighbors and his pets?

[musicblind]

4. Surprisingly, there is.

Go to this link and scroll down to Feb 17th. It's the Point Blank Political poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/

[VarryOn]

3. Turnout...

Iowa's a surprise. I'm hoping an uncertain outcome and it being a Saturday will boost turnout.

And yeah, if Sanders doesnt win that would be pretty big.

[musicblind]

5. I agree. The two biggest surprises that could happen tomorrow night are

A.) Sanders doesn't win. If he loses by even one point... holy crap, were the polls wrong.

B.) Sanders wins every delegate because no one else reaches 15% in any precinct... holy crap were the polls wrong.

Either of those would floor me.

I'm hoping you're right about turnout being a surprise. A huge turnout would be good for our party's chances in the general, regardless of who they vote for tomorrow.

[VarryOn]

7. Just thinking ahead to Super Tuesday...

Turnout will be especially important in gauging Democrats' enthusiasm (minus however damn Republicans that show up to vote in our primaries). A concern I have is a Sanders win in Nevada that's great enough to cause many to throw their hands up in frustration proclaiming, "well, it's over" and thus suppressing future turnout. If we aren't entusiastic in our own primaries, it makes it harder to sell our nominee in November.

[CalFione]

6. Bernie is up by 13% in polls in NV

if he wins by 5% or less, that means people moved away from him in the last week.


as for a surprise, I say that Biden comes in second.

[Deero]

9. If

both of those things happen; meaning Biden comes in 2nd and is within 5 points of Bernie, he will win SC. At that point he probably consolidates a lot of the moderate lane and the rest of the race ends up as a series of Biden and Sanders finishing 1-2 and ending up both short of a majority but both well ahead of everyone else.

The worst scenario for Sanders would be if Warrens resurgence causes that lane to split again like it was in the fall and Bloombergs fall gives a lot of support back to Biden. That sure seems like something that could happen.

[Deero]

8. Yes.

There's absolutely a chance of a surprise. I'd say the chance of a surprise is nearly guaranteed.

NV is a notoriously hard state to poll and being that it is a caucus makes it even moreso. We also have basically no polls post debate, which means we don't know how it actually impacted the race. Biden did well, Buttigieg and Klobuchar didn't really, and Bloomberg did awful, so some support that had leaked from Biden could return to him, making him beat his polls. Warren did really well, so some of the support that was leaking from her to Sander might come back, dropping him and raising her.

I think I'd be most surprised if the polls are right. I expect there to be some surprises.