New poll shows Trump faltering in two "blue wall" states he carried in 2016

[applegrove]

New poll shows Trump faltering in two "blue wall" states he carried in 2016

BY GRACE SEGERS at CBS News

FEBRUARY 20, 2020 / 1:04 PM / CBS NEWS

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-poll-shows-trump-faltering-in-blue-wall-states-he-carried-in-2016/

"SNIP...


President Trump is in the Oval Office in large part because of his narrow victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, three states traditionally considered a "blue wall" which crumbled for Democrats in 2016. However, a new poll indicates that Mr. Trump may have trouble holding onto two of those states in 2020.

A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found all top Democratic candidates leading Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan. He trails Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg by 6 to 8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and Bernie Sanders tops Mr. Trump by 5 percentage points in Michigan.

It's not all bad news for the Trump campaign, however, since the president leads all Democrats in Wisconsin by 7 to 11 percentage points.

.....SNIP"

[Bleacher Creature]

1. The problem is that we need more than MI and PA, assuming we hold everything else.

That means flipping any one of WI, AZ, NC, FL, or AZ.

[nobuddy]

2. I think we need two of those

[Horizens]

3. WI

is probably a lost cause but GA could be in play.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. If WI is a lost cause, Trump is going to win reelection.

[applegrove]

8. The electoral college is so confusing.

[Vogon_Glory]

10. I'm not sure about that.

I think a good Democratic candidate might have a shot at taking one of the 2016 red states this fall. NC, AZ (The straight-laced R’s seem to be reaching their limits with Donnie), GA (Maybe), and Texas (We can hope).

[Horizens]

13. Agree

but texas ..... no.

[Vogon_Glory]

15. If the party nominates Bernie, Texas will remain red

And John Cornyn will get re-elected to the US Senate.

[Moderateguy]

26. Cornyn is not really in trouble

Unless we have a turnout like we have never seen before. The party-backed dem candidate is wasting oodles of money fighting a close primary with an AOC backed liberal darling

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Mighty big if, unfortunately.

[Vogon_Glory]

19. Why kiss off all four states as possible pick-ups?

If we can win even just two of them, Donnie’s out on his backside.

This isn’t 2016. In Texas and Arizona, the electorate is a little browner and some of the Trumpies are a little deader.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Because those states rarely go Democratic...

Texas hasn't in 50 years.

Georgia and Arizona only briefly did.

We're basically trading a state that had gone Democratic in every presidential election going back to 1988 for the hopes of states that have only gone Democratic once in the last 50 years (okay, GA went Democratic when native son Carter was running).

That's a very dicey proposition.

[Vogon_Glory]

23. That was then. This is now

I think the Good Guys have a chance of wrenching at least one if not two of those states from Club Pachyderm.

Demographics change. That’s why Orange County turned Democratic and why California turned into a blue redoubt. That’ s also true for Virginia.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. I wouldn't bet on it.

Maybe if the economy slips but it's going to be an uphill battle to win those states.

[Vivienne235729]

38. It's not that AZ is getting browner. It's that we are getting californicated.

Maricopa is a solid red county and it went blue for Kristyn Sinema. I have faith it will do the same for Mark Kelly. Trumpkins are throwing a fit over the CA exodus. I'm over here rolling out the red carpet and welcome wagon.

[uponit7771]

28. Biden is within MOE

[Garrett78]

41. I don't think WI is a lost cause, but even if it is, that doesn't mean Trump will win.

Over time, states go from red to blue and vice versa. Or from purple to very blue. Or from purple to stark red. Missouri, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia are just some of the examples.

I think Arizona will go blue.

[videohead5]

6. That poll

Oversampled Republicans by 6 points over Democrats.

[uponit7771]

29. If you're talking about the WI one I mentioned earlier that poll looked funny.

[MoonlitKnight]

18. If we hold and get PA back we just need one more

I think it’s only two EV needed.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

40. I'm a life long Pennsylvanian.

I feel pretty optimistic Pennsylvania will go blue!

[TwilightZone]

4. The problem, of course, is Wisconsin.

His approval rating has been inexplicably climbing there and, as noted, he's up significantly on all of our candidates.

Long time until November and turnout will be key, but we're going to need another state to replace it in the EC-to-270 if it ends up being non-competitive.

[VMA131Marine]

7. That WI poll looks like an outlier

It’s completely out of step with the two polls done in mid-January, which were fairly consistent with each other. The Quinnipiac poll is saying there has been an 11 point swing to Trump in about a month. That seems very unlikely.
I wouldn’t worry too much about this one poll until another poll gives similar results. This could just be a bad sample.

[uponit7771]

30. +1, I mentioned that today the WI poll represents an 8 point swing for Biden ... looked funny

[RDANGELO]

9. If we win Florida, then it probably won't matter.

If we don't win Florida then we would need a replacement for Wisconsin, like North Carolina or Arizona. It looks like Florida is going to be really close.

[MoonlitKnight]

20. The amendment to restore voting rights will help in Florida

Adds about a million eligible Democratic leaning voters. It could turn Florida solidly blue.

[greenman3610]

11. wtf is up with Wisconsin?

[Laelth]

14. That's what I want to know.

A polling error, perhaps.



-Laelth

[Ackoto]

12. polls underestimated Trump in those States

In 2016.

[uponit7771]

31. Polls didn't factor in Russian support for 3rd party candidates and them over performing by 300%

[Steelrolled]

16. Why is anyone listening to these polls?

They are meaningless in my mind.

[Lucid Dreamer]

21. You are so right.

If polls in marginal states make anybody feel good at this point, you are headed for a 2016-like downfall.
There is a lot of work to be done to get blue and stay blue.

Optimism at this point is lethal.

Thanx Steelrolled.

[uponit7771]

32. The swing state polls are not, that's where we win ... no national polls that mean nothing

[Steelrolled]

39. You are correct that the swing state polls are important

But anymore, I have little confidence in even these. I think there are technical challenges for the pollsters, plus the possibility (that I believe) that more people are intentionally lying on polls.

[Moderateguy]

25. As someone active in Democratic politics in my little blue corner of a red state

I can tell you that Texas is going to be a hard sell with Biden and if Sanders is the nominee cost us at least 4 house seats here

[evertonfc]

27. These are long time Blue States

the fact that these states are competitive is concerning. This is good news but remember this is before we have a nominee and 700 million in ads are thrown agianst him or her. Joe Biden would deliver PA for sure.

[BootinUp]

33. I guess Wisconsin wants to make some kind of a name

for itself.signed disgusted.

[doc03]

34. How are the polls in Ohio? I think it is winnable, Ohio has a diverse population

and economy. If we pick up Ohio we don't need Wisconsin.

[applegrove]

35. What are the numbers?

[doc03]

36. I found this Biden is way over Trump it is a while back though

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Ohio.html



Here is another: Biden winning Warren and Sanders tied with Trump and Trump beating Buttigieg
https://www.270towin.com/polls/2020-presidential-election/


Joe Biden would win Ohio I have no doubt. But this screwed up primary system will eliminate him before that and we will end up with Sanders or Bloomberg and they have no chance here IMO.

[applegrove]

37. Wow. I hope we get Ohio.

[Garrett78]

42. As Ohio gets older and whiter, it becomes increasingly out of reach.

I have more hope for AZ, NC and even GA.

[doc03]

43. Obama won twice didn't he? Sherrod Brown

won easily. How much older and whiter it get in 4 years?
I am saying Biden would win but Sanders wouldn't have a chance.

[Garrett78]

44. It's been 8 years since Obama won Ohio. A lot can and has changed in 8 years.

Brown is a longtime incumbent Senator. It's apples and oranges.

[doc03]

45. Well Dems better get off their ass and try and

gain something not just give up. You know maybe the party should moderate some instead of going for socialist
programs. There is something I hear every day "I have always been a Democrat but they left me"

[Garrett78]

46. I'm not saying Dems should give up on OH. But we're more likely to flip AZ, NC and even GA.

And maybe even TX.

[doc03]

47. So far our nominating process is looking like

a slow motion train wreck. It scares the he'll out of me that Trump will get re-elected.

[greenjar_01]

48. He only needs Wisconsin

He can lose those both, take Wisconsin, and win.

[octoberlib]

49. We need Wisconsin or we're screwed.