Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumAfter Obama, Democrats need a new theory of change. Pete Buttigieg thinks he's got it.
The most important debate in the Democratic primary is over how to make governing great again.
By Ezra Klein@ezraklein Apr 4, 2019, 8:00am EDT
It seems very weird that the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is catching fire as a presidential candidate.
Until you talk to Pete Buttigieg. Then it doesnt seem so weird.
I sat down with Buttigieg for my podcast, and came away unexpectedly impressed. A lot has been made of the eight languages Buttigieg speaks and his stint as a Rhodes scholar and Navy intelligence officer, but what struck me most is that Buttigieg has a coherent theory of whats gone wrong in American politics, and whats required to fix it. Thats rarer among presidential candidates than you might think.
In 2007, Mark Schmitt wrote a piece I think about often. In it, he argued that the contest between Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards was not a primary about ideological differences, or electability, but rather one about a difference in candidates implicit assumptions about the current circumstance and how the levers of power can be used to get the country back on track. It was, he said, the theory of change primary.
Obama won that primary, and, in the short period in which Democrats had 60 votes in the Senate, he managed to push through quite a bit of legislation. But while Democrats broadly revere Obama, theres a consensus that Obamas theory of change ultimately crashed on the shoals of Republican obstruction. As a result, many of the problems Obama sought and failed to address from inequality to climate change to wage stagnation to money in politics to gerrymandering have worsened, and Democrats see Trump as the poisoned fruit of those failures.
more
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/4/18290753/pete-buttigieg-bernie-sanders-filibuster-electoral-college-supreme-court
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FM123
(10,054 posts)One thing that did make me chuckle, though, was when I read the line that "Democrats see Trump as the poisoned fruit of those failures" I kept hearing trumpy's idiot voice saying "oranges oranges"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,890 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
shanny
(6,709 posts)Everything was just peachy before then?
He didn't cause all our problems and they won't end when he's gone.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Funtatlaguy
(10,890 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
shanny
(6,709 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)to get a working majority in Congress.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RLG
(314 posts)Could he save Doug Jones in Alabama? Could his coattails defeat Susan Collins and help in the Arizona race?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)Through no fault of his own, either. Democrat in Alabama who won a nailbiter election during the peak of anti-Trump anger against what may be the worst Senate candidate in history.
I'm thrilled he won, but with Trump leading the Republican ticket in 2020, I'll be surprised if Jones keeps his race within single digits.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)Jones has an uphill battle.
Now, it's possible Espy has a chance in 2020 against Cindy Hyde-Smith. He was close before and said he was just getting started with building GOTV operations in Mississippi
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Ferrets are Cool
(21,111 posts)he has a snowballs chance in hell of winning again. I wish it were not true, but this is Alabama, where the STUPID runs deep.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cstanleytech
(26,337 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)Major right winger just won a seat on the Supreme Court. Granted by a very thin margin, but still....
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
KPN
(15,668 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Ferrets are Cool
(21,111 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,890 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ferrets are Cool
(21,111 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,890 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ferrets are Cool
(21,111 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)So people can get caught up in the new coalition. This is how the Reagan Democrats were created. Now is a chance to reverse the process.
Jones winning in Alabama and Abrams almost winning in Georgia could be harbingers rather than flukes. We don't know which yet.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,232 posts)but is fly over America ready for Pete? We are talking about winning in November 2020 and not winning the primaries.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)Although I would hope otherwise, in my opinion, flyover America is not ready to put an openly gay man with a husband in the White House. As a nation, we haven't reached that level of acceptance. And it's a shame to say that because given his resume, I think Mayor Pete would make an excellent President.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
KPN
(15,668 posts)how in the world are we ever going to achieve real and lasting progressive change. Admittedly, there is risk and maybe this election is not the right time to accept those risks. We have a difficult choice to make as a whole.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)afford to lose, it's the one a year and a half away. Electability is everything. This is not the time for experimentation, and nominating a gay man falls into the category of taking a huge risk. I personally like Warren's message, but I will work my ass off to support the eventual nominee whoever that is.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
KPN
(15,668 posts)nominee as Mayor Pete. In fact, there's risk with every candidate, some more than others. Biden seems like the least risky right now -- but his age alone is a huge factor. Also, will he inspire young , economic progressives, POC voters.
My sense is we have to see how voters turnout for the various candidates during the primaries to get a real sense of risk/electability. If one candidate clearly dominates turnout-wise with key groups, that maybe who has the least risk?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)The opportunities are less obvious. Historically, elections in similar periods of history, such as 1828, 1860, 1932, and 1980, major and unanticipated realignments occurred.
A lot of us are basing our assumptions on the path we've been on since the 1980s. But this ignores much larger historical trends. That we often go down one path for a long time, then suddenly change paths in key elections. This may be such an election. Either we will dip much deeper into authoritarianism by confirming the results of 2016, or we will completely repudiate 2016 and set ourselves in a new direction in 2020.
To get on this new path, the candidate must run on a platform of transformation, as Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren are doing. That's why Biden is not a good choice, we can't run as if we wan't to go back to 2008 or 1992. We have run as Lincoln ran, "This nation can't survive half-slave and half-free." That is, he was the first to stop ignoring the elephant in the room.
The future us not written in stone. The odds may be against us. But we must assume we can win and win big. All big winners in historical battles assumed this, which is why they fought no matter how hopeless it seemed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)Wait, that was New York!
Seriously, we either nominate the best candidate or our party's claim to be non-discriminatory is just for cover.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
democrank
(11,112 posts)Mark Schmitts theory of change primary gave me a lot to think about and helped me figure out exactly what it was that bothered me just a few months into President Obamas first term.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Perrenial Voter
(173 posts)But how are the structural changes going to be brought about. Bernie's approach is a mass electoral uprising, which has had, so far, limited success. The thing is, the oligarchs do have a plan: they want a constitutional convention in which they are able to hardwire their current advantages into the system. This is not that much of a long shot, since they are close to having enough states on board to make this happen. But how do we undo the electoral college, gerrymandering, money in politics, a packed Supreme Court, the anti-democratic nature of the Senate, and for that matter, the institutional power of political parties? If Buttigieg has a plan, I'd love to hear about it.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)That's his plan, and I 'd expect him to campaign that way if he is the nominee, but it would be foolish for him to spell it out now. It's crazy enough he is running at all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Perrenial Voter
(173 posts)but I think undoing these things would require more than just control of the Senate. It would require control of state houses, where gerrymandering takes place and where Constitutional Amendments and Constitutional Conventions are voted on. This, in turn requires finding a way to bring the white working class, especially in the South and in the rust belt back, into the Democratic Party.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)His assumption is that Republican support is weaker than it appears. We keep voting for change candidates but nothing changes Now here's a candidate who is not only for change, but comes with a plan for changing the system to overcome obstruction. The assumption is large numbers of voters will see the wisdom of this plan and vote Democrats in across the board.
Strategic assumptions differ from analytical assumptions. Analysis asks, '"is this possible?" Strategy asks, "If I need this to happen, how would I do it?"
On edit: he is making a white working class and Christian appeal. His biggest weakness is likely to be African Americans, but I think he may be able to overcome that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Perrenial Voter
(173 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
RLG
(314 posts)I think the South is still a question mark even if Stacey Abrams runs in Georgia.
It doesn't leave enough wiggle room to pick up Senate seats. New voters aside, there are still the true believers who will fight tooth and nail against "change".
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)I heard there's even a guy with a Richard Nixon tattoo.
When this sort of opportunity arises, there is a split on the right. Support for many of Trump's positions is lower than support for Trump himself. And he has accomplished very little except a tax cut. He has 't drained the swamp or anything else.
A likeable, convincing Democrat has an opportunity here. We will miss if we say "they are all just racists."
That doesn't mean they will go for someone like Pete. But at least we should be thinking bigger than "we just have to beat Trump." We need to a lot more than that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
progressoid
(50,001 posts)does any candidate have a plan to undo the electoral college, gerrymandering, money in politics, a packed Supreme Court, the anti-democratic nature of the Senate, and for that matter, the institutional power of political parties?
That's a pretty tall order.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Martin Eden
(12,881 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
KPN
(15,668 posts)something about or from him. He is definitely in my short list of candidates, which admittedly at this point is not very short (imo, that's a good thing though).
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
jmbar2
(4,911 posts)We also need to change the format of debates to focus on "theories of change" and proposed policies, rather than soundbites. Democrats can do that without any Republican help.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cilla4progress
(24,788 posts)I'm out.
Well, not completely out, but TERRIBLY disappointed and far less engaged.
Dems must stand behind their big tent, diversity, we are America, representation claims with action.
And don't come at me with "but but the best person for the job...".
The bench is plenty deep with both.
Also, electability.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
RLG
(314 posts)Bernie and Gabbard aside, I don't see a difference between the announced contenders regarding policy. They all agree on practically everything. Are we voting for a candidate or is this the Democratic version of American Idol? Even if the nominee is chosen, it is still an uphill battle, especially in states such as Florida and Ohio.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
cilla4progress
(24,788 posts)I believe, on process.v. policy, including this one. Well worth reading.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
RLG
(314 posts)Democrats are convinced, but the "process" still doesn't matter for many people.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
kcr
(15,320 posts)A lot of the things he's said recently make me think he's not as close to me as some of the other candidates on issues, but this one makes him one of my top candidates anyway. He'd be my first choice if I thought he could fulfill that promise of staying on top of government reform instead of abandoning it to focusing on policy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden