Bernie Sanders hits a ceiling in first primary contests

[highplainsdem]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/bernie-sanders-hits-ceiling-first-primary-contests-n1137491

WASHINGTON - If 2020 was supposed to be the year Sen. Bernie Sanders built on his momentum from the last presidential race and captured the Democratic nomination for president, the surge that would make that possible is not appearing in the party’s early contests.

The data out of Iowa and New Hampshire show a candidate that, so far anyway, seems to be hitting a ceiling, locked into a particular segment of the vote, and campaigning in an electorate that look like it’s not especially well-designed for him.

-snip-

In Iowa, those three centrist candidates garnered 51 percent of the vote, while the progressives captured 47 percent. In New Hampshire, the centrists did even better, winning 53 percent of the vote, while the progressives won 34 percent.

-snip-

Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary set a record for votes cast, some 298,000 compared to 254,000 four years ago. But the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic Primary electorate had smaller percentages of the groups that tend to support Sanders, younger voters and self-described liberal voters.

-snip-

[George II]

1. "Tuesday's New Hampshire Primary set a record for votes cast...."

.....some 298,000 compared to 254,000 four years ago."

And yet Sanders' vote total was roughly HALF of what it was four years ago! People did turn out, but they voted against him.

[thesquanderer]

6. Yet more people voted FOR him than voted FOR anybody else.

This argument against Sanders is even worse if applied to anyone else. So I guess that means we have nobody. We might as well concede to Trump now, because by this measure of yours, we simply do not have a viable candidate to offer.

[George II]

8. But there's only one person who claims they are solely responsible for high turnout.

[tecelote]

10. Help me out here...

Last year there were two candidates to split the votes.

How many candidates were there this year?

[George II]

11. Has nothing to do with that. If he had 150,000 last time, where did half of them go, especially....

....if many more showed up? You're only confirming my point.

[tecelote]

12. It's unrealistic to think that he'd have the same numbers.

If Hillary ran, she wouldn't have the same numbers either. It's a larger field, you know.

I voted for Bernie but now prefer Warren. However, if it were only Bernie and Biden in NH, Bernie would win because he just did beat Biden. Right?

I know, it's bad logic.

That's my point. Apples and oranges.

[empedocles]

2. ''That's the way it is''

[Nanjeanne]

3. Other than factual information proving this wrong - it makes total sense.

In Iowa, those three centrist candidates garnered 51 percent of the vote, while the progressives captured 47 percent. In New Hampshire, the centrists did even better, winning 53 percent of the vote, while the progressives won 34 percent.

The idea that every Biden, Pete, Amy voter would not vote for Sanders or Warren has been proven ridiculous by many polls. As has been posted many times, polls show Sanders in a two way against other Dems beats them. Other polls show that large % of Biden’s supporters choose Sanders as their second choice.

Beating this drum just doesn’t compute.

Otherwise, if you ignore all data, it’s a slam dunk opinion!

[Voltaire2]

4. He has to start placing second or even better third

in these primaries if he wants to win.

[RazBerryBeret]

5. and yet he is leading

in fund raising, only behind Bloomberg and Steyer.
Within that break out, Sanders leads in small money donations, Warren comes in second.
Also Sanders has the most cash on hand of any candidate (other than Trump)

these are national numbers, not just figures confined to predominately caucasian and/or wealthy respondents.

I'm looking forward to what happens in the next few weeks.

[DanTex]

7. Umm....

[krissey]

9. At least half of Warren support is HRC voters and no way that will go into Sanders block.

[Cha]

13. KICK

[Quixote1818]

14. Except polls show Sanders is the second choice of most folks so this is pretty much dead wrong

Poll: Sanders, Biden seen as most popular second choices in Dem primary

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/430261-sanders-biden-seen-as-most-popular-second-choices-for-dem