Who's Ahead in Texas? Feb 15 - Sanders

[Donkees]

[Bendim]

2. Does it hurt

Does it hurt to see poll after poll showing Bernie either ahead or quickly catching up in so many states?

Or is this poll as unreliable and wrong as all the other polls that you all dismiss because in your heart of hearts, you just ‘know’ what will happen much better than the polls indicate?

[Voltaire2]

4. The unwashed rabble is ignoring the wisdom

of the elites. That causes a lot of upset.

[jayschool2013]

3. Latest general election poll in Texas

Also gives Sanders the best numbers versus Caligula II:

Twitler 47, Sanders 45

[Donkees]

5. *

[Deero]

6. That's not what that says.

The model doesn't say who's "ahead". It says who is feels is most likely to win throughout thousands of simulations. The reason Sanders has a higher probability right now is based largely on the assumption that Biden could drop out before then.

Do you think that's likely? In simulations where Biden is still in, he would be more likely to win. This is also why Sanders his shown higher in SC, a state where he has barely been within 10 points of Biden in an poll.