Does Bloomberg have time to catch up?

[DanTex]

He's spending huge amounts of money, and rising in polls, but he's still polling around 10% nationally. And Super Tuesday is less than a month away. He picked up about 5 points in Jan, which is strong, but if he picks up 5 more in Feb, he still goes into Super Tuesday in third. And, presumably, that 10% he's got now is the easiest 10% for him, either conservative Dems or Dems who think he's the only one who can beat Trump.

I think Bloomberg's logic was that Biden was going to fade. Which may be happening, but at the same time Pete is rising, so the centrist lane isn't really opening up.

One ironic outcome could be if Bloomberg ends up "Nadering" Biden and/or Pete by splitting the centrist vote and thereby helping Bernie.

[randr]

1. Nothing starts until after the convention

[underpants]

2. Yes.

He’s not wasting time and money on the first four which make up a whopping 4% of delegates.

Super Tuesday will tell all.

[still_one]

11. Exactly. He also makes it more likely for a open convention, where no candidate

has sufficient delegates going into the convention

[Demsrule86]

16. No he doesn't...less likely IMHO...first of all Buttigieg is done after New Hampshire...maybe he

gets a little in Nevada...but with 0% AA support, he has nowhere to go after Nevada. Carolina will be bad...won't get delegates...super Tuesday will be bad also...so I expect Warren, to hang on a bit...but not that long...which means that Klobabchar, Buttigieg and eventually Warren will be out. Either Biden drops out or Bloomberg does...one will go which makes it a two person race. With Sanders abysmal AA support...Biden or Bloomberg will win the nomination and there will be no brokered convention. On the second vote if the winner of the most delegates who perhaps has not met the numbers of required number of delegates...supers will vote to put him (not a her in all likelihood) over the top. That is the only way it can and will work.

[still_one]

17. I understand your point Demsrule, and whether that is a valid assumption will be evident after Super

Tuesday

[Demsrule86]

25. One of my favorite songs...(unknown to most) is Time Will Tell...

We shall see.

[still_one]

26. Good song. +++

[flamingdem]

18. I hope you're correct

I think we need Biden or Bloomberg to win. Can't see it with the others.

[jimfields33]

23. Bloomberg? I don't get the appeal

I’ve seen some articles of him not being liberal at all. In fact, some of the issues, his stances are right of trump. Transgender for example.

[flamingdem]

24. He'll have to explain those comments. The advantage with Bloomberg is his $ and strength overall

He looks tough and talks tough to Trump. He has a personal vendetta against him and has the money to destroy him, I hope.

Obviously I prefer Biden but we'll see how things play out.

[NewJeffCT]

27. he's attacking Trump

instead of other Democrats. Everybody else is attacking each other and sniping at policy differences that won't amount to jack if Trump wins again.

[bluewater]

20. Nevada is only 67% white, but has a 9% African American population too.

The other 25% is Latino and Asian.

It's a very representative diverse state.

If Biden can't win there, he has no excuse. Losing to Pete in Nevada will fatally damage the Biden Campaign.

[Demsrule86]

22. Pete has nowhere to go after Nevada...and maybe he loses in Nevada.

We will see what happens...I think Carolina and super Tuesday are more important...but I still wouldn't consider Sanders in the primary...will vote for Bloomberg in Ohio, if Biden falters. However, I like EW and if she is doing well I will vote for her instead of Bloomberg...

[bluewater]

28. SC is atypical, Super Tuesday will show which candidates are viable.

The SC primary voters are expected to be 66% African Americans. That's a much higher % than any other state, even other Southern states. It is only a good indicator of support among Black voters. Nevada, is a racially diverse state that is more representative of most of the country.

Again, Joe is in big trouble if Pete beats him in Nevada. But it's also a test of Pete's viability. Can he win in a racially diverse state?

But, we both expect all the campaigns to take the fight into Super Tuesday. That is when we shall see an accurate picture of the race, not in South Carolina.

It's getting to the point where we all need to come to terms with possibly supporting a second choice candidate.
So, good luck to you and your preferred candidate!

[leftieNanner]

3. Interesting

A close friend who is very politically savvy thinks Bloomberg Klobuchar would be a good ticket.

[BusyBeingBest]

5. That would be a good ticket. East Coast + midwest, both moderates so compatible.

She has Senate/federal gov experience, foreign policy knowledge and law background, as a complement to Bloomberg--she would bring a lot to any ticket really. I wish she was doing better.

[patricia92243]

4. The saying is that a week in politics is a lifetime. So, a month

can make a lot of difference.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. Bloomberg wants to crush Trump.

He might not get the nomination, though he's doing surprisingly well in the polls. Tons of money buys tons of good advertising. If he doesn't get it he'll rechannel his money to helping the nominee and down-ticket Democrats. I don't think he wants the job as much as he wants to crush Trump, but saw that the best way to start to do that is to run himself using his own money. That got him more publicity in the first instance. I don't think he'll split the party. Bernie is doing a pretty good job of that himself.

[TwilightZone]

13. Agreed on all of that.

After spending tons in 2018 on Democrats and Dem causes, I have no doubt he'll do the same in 2020, regardless of whether or not he's the nominee.

[calguy]

7. Don't underestimate Bloomberg

He knows how to succeed. He's playing to succeed. He has all of the resources needed to succeed. And that includes beating trump in the general election. His ads are getting to trump like no others' have done. I'm still backing Biden until such time he doesn't look like he can win. Bloomberg would be my second choice simply because I do not think the remaining candidates have a chance to beat trump. All I care about is beating trump and I don't care who does it, as long as it gets done.

[NewJeffCT]

29. I was shocked either last week or earlier this week

when Bloomberg made more staff hires for Super Tuesday and I asked if that was a lot (I had no idea). I was informed that the amount of campaign staff he hired is good number for an entire national campaign, not just Super Tuesday.

[calguy]

32. Bloomberg doesn't see any of the current dems capable of beating trump

He is laser focused on getting trump out of office and that's why he's in it to win it. Biden is still my #1 choice but Mike is a close #2.

[Green Line]

36. That's the only issue

who can beat Trump. If Biden falters, I'm going with Bloomberg.

[LanternWaste]

8. Is there any data indicating he can't?

[njhoneybadger]

9. I hope he can, but it's a long shot

I believe he is the only one besides Biden who could win the general election

(I just switched from Biden yesterday)

[zackymilly]

33. I think Trump would fear going up against Bloomberg the most. n/t

[TheCowsCameHome]

10. I hope so.

Everything is up for grabs at this point.

[democratisphere]

12. This entire election is still wide open.

Iowa and New Hampshire are NOTHING when related to the big picture of all America.

[Demsrule86]

14. The first four states are nothing in terms of delegates...and Bloomberg is competing in super

Tuesday. If Biden falters and I still think he won', consider that Buttigieg won't get the numbers after New Hampshire-0% AA vote. Thus moderates and those who don't like Sanders or think he can't win will vote for Bloomberg...not that fond of Bloomberg, but he has my vote in Ohio if it is between him and Sanders...whom I truly believes will lose a general.

[bucolic_frolic]

15. Yes he can catch up, plenty of time

But he has to flesh out his policies and ideas and be more than just a Trump whacker. We may enjoy it but he has to stand for something for Independents and moderates too, and he needs some idea of how to reverse Trump's more radical policies. This and international experience is where I think Biden shines, Biden knows how the Federal government used to work, pre-Trump. Bloomberg does not strike me as the most enthusiastic hands-on politician. Repopulating the Executive branch with qualified personnel is a big task. You can't just install a few heads and manage it. And that's what CEO's do, they manage. Govern is a notch higher.

[KentuckyWoman]

19. i hope not

i will support in the general. of course. But I will be pissed if we put up a billionaire who thinks he can just buy his way in.

[sarisataka]

21. More importantly,

If he doesn't win the nomination will he back out of his promise and decide to run as an independent?

He has a history of not exactly being committed to the Democratic party.

[NewJeffCT]

30. he said he would back the Democratic nominee

with up to $1 to $2 billion in support

[sarisataka]

35. In March of 2019 he wrote

He said he wouldn't run, that he would be more effective working on his projects outside of Washington.

Today he says he will support the nominee. What if the nominee is someone he doesn't believe will defeat Trump in the GE? Will he throw a couple billion into something he feels will ultimately fail or will he change his mind again and spend those billions elsewhere?

[NewJeffCT]

38. somebody asked him if Sanders would the nomination

if he would support Sanders, and he said he would

[sarisataka]

39. Talk is cheap

And when it comes time to write 10 digit checks I believe he will only do so if he is sure that person can win.

This is a person who entered the race because he did not believe Democrats had strong enough candidates to beat Trump. If the nominee creates a schism in the party where there appears to be no path to victory, I can see him going to Plan B(loomberg).

I admit I am cynical but I can't place much faith in the word of a DEMOCRATIC-REPUBLICAN-INDEPENDENT-DEMOCRAT.

[Squinch]

31. The number of delegates in play in the first 4 states is miniscule.

It isn't a question of time, its a question of delegates.

Everyone else is scrapping in the mud over that miniscule number of delegates. They are all muddied by the fight.

Bloomberg arrives fresh as a daisy on super tuesday in all those big delegate states where he has been working while the others were sniping at each other over a tiny percent of delegates.

Its brilliant.

And the answer is yes.

[Zolorp]

34. Yeah, like 1% of the thousands of delegates have already been allocated, there's no way to catch up!

[MineralMan]

37. Oh, yes, he does.

Anyone living in a Super Tuesday state has seen Bloomberg ads every day during the news hour on all channels, including MSNBC. In fact, they're the only campaign ads you'll see for a while yet. They've been running for more than a month, multiple times in each news hour on all channels. Bloomberg dominates TV advertising in those states, and is expanding his advertising in states with later primaries in March and beyond.

So, we haven't voted yet in those Super Tuesday states and most polling outfits have been ignoring those states, as well. Here's what I think will happen:

On March 4, you're going to see Mike Bloomberg as the #3 vote-winner in some of the Super Tuesday states. He might even be #2 in a state or two you don't think about very much. After that, he will no longer be ignored by the media news. His ad budget is unlimited, and he seems to be determined to be a big factor in the primary race.

Just watch.