Bernie is Now 50/50 to Win Nomination as Biden's Chances Crater: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight

[JoeOtterbein]

Mediaite

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — more than double the probability of his nearest competitor — according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders’ odds at “1 in 2,” with former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds at “1 in 5,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at “1 in 20,” and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at “1 in 30.”

All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at “1 in 100” odds.

Sanders is also currently predicted to receive around 1,782 pledged delegates, with Biden at 987, Buttigieg at 402, Warren at 394, and Bloomberg at 339.

snip

more at link

[Botany]

1. And if Bernie gets the nomination Trump will get a 2nd term

n/t

[Garion_55]

4. I would hope not.

A.B.T. really should mean anyone but trump.

[Progress_Dem]

5. Why do you think this?

Sanders consistently beats Trump in polls. Sanders' policies are also popular with the American people. Young voters love him. New voters love him.

Sanders is our best option.

[Botany]

6. Do you really want me to answer that?

n/t

[Progress_Dem]

10. Yes, please. That is why I asked.

And don't just repeat Republican talking points.

[ehrnst]

20. Which polls are those?

Polls taken now about a hypothetical GE matchup between Sanders and Trump can't take into account that the GOP is boosting him now as a nominee, and they have never aimed any oppo at him - quite the opposite. They are boosting him. Again.

That would completely change should Sanders actually win the nomination. But do share the polls that you are referencing. I'm interested in your sources. Here are mine:

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-claim-pelosi-intentionally-helping-biden-and-hurting-bernie-sanders-2020-1

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/us/politics/trump-sanders-bloomberg-2020.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/17/indictment-russians-also-tried-help-bernie-sanders-jill-stein-presidential-campaigns/348051002/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/20/18508880/karl-rove-bernie-sanders-could-beat-donald-trump-in-2020

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/07/bernie-sanders-republican-senate-1307296

https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/20/bernie-sanders-gets-some-outside-help-he-didnt-ask-for/

[ehrnst]

25. "publishing from inside the beltway..."

As though Sanders hasn't been working there for decades. And there was no greater 'insider' than [link:http://|Tad Devine].



And here I thought that effective political experience and expertise were only threats to RW ers.

Remember, those inside the beltway thought there was no way Trump could win in 2016. They also thought Clinton would be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Insider political opinion is not always right.

Hon, HRC beat Trump by the the predicted margin of votes. So there's that.

And Clinton came within less than 1% of the primary vote to Obama.

Not so much with Sanders. And he's certainly weaker out of the starting blocks in IA than last time.

[njhoneybadger]

26. Yes, but it's not about the polls now it's about the polls after the Rethugs

Run him through their meat grinders.

[Botany]

30. Make no doubt about it Russia and the Trumpublicans are working 24/7 to make Bernie the pick

n/t

[ibegurpard]

13. Better get ready to work to make sure that doesn't happen

[DownriverDem]

17. For sure

Does anyone know anything about this? it was on Facebook. "For the record there was plenty of support in Iowa for Biden, The Beto Road Warriors knocked on thousands of doors but seniors refused to caucus because they were afraid of Warren and Sanders supporters some of whom actually went up to them and grabbed them."

[Alliepoo]

29. I absolutely agree with you.

[octoberlib]

2. Way too early. Also get ready for four more years of Trump.

[ancianita]

15. WAY too early. WAY too early. Everyone here needs to remember that. DON'T get ready for 45. Nope.

[Peacetrain]

3. I do not think Sanders can stand up to the crap throw that the republicans will

give him.. look at how they are trying to crucify Bidens son. He (Sanders) cannot take that heat..

[Garion_55]

7. well, if he ends up the nominee

i would expect the entire democratic party to stand up for him and fight those bastards back for the good of this country and our kids.

just like i would if biden ends up the nominee or warren.

[Peacetrain]

11. The party will stand behind him.. but the attacks are going to be brutal..

and they are going to go after Jane the way they are going after Hunter.. I honestly do not think Bernie could take that.. I just don't Trump does not care.. he has not moral center..

[bucolic_frolic]

8. I don't believe a word Nate Silver says

Remember 2016!

[Progress_Dem]

9. About right

I worry about Bloomberg though.

[evertonfc]

12. I'm for Joe BUT

Sanders could beat Trump. Bill Clinton and Obama were longshots until they caught momentum in primaries. Trump was the long shots of all long shots expected to lose even on election night. Hell, many of us wanted to run against this stupid guy with a small but energized base. I think Joe has an easier path but if gotv we win. If not, we lose. Simple math really

[ancianita]

14. 50+ more primaries are left for chrissake. Let's not lose Biden or any other Democrat in advance.

[disndat]

16. Sanders is easier for Trump to beat.

The Trump campaign is probably behind Sanders sudden rise and $$$.

[Zeus69]

18. If BS is the nominee

I'll sit back, grab my bucket of popcorn, and watch the beatdown

(oh and that's by Trump, to Bernie)

[R B Garr]

21. Yup, and drag down ballot candidates and the party down

with him as socialists. Trump doesn’t have to know anything. Just smear Democrats as socialists.

[onecaliberal]

19. Until The black vote swings Bernie, I'm not buying the media spin.

And 538 said Hillary had a 90% chance of beating trump. I don’t believe a single thing he says.

[LanternWaste]

23. The pretense that the first step in a marathon is a leading indicator of victory is absurd.

Much less skepticism for polling as he climbs.

That's convenient... but illustrates a bias more than anything else.

Good luck! Another suRgE!!! is soon to come!!!!

[themaguffin]

24. His chances improved as Warren struggled, not Biden.

[William769]

31. This is the same guy that said Biden would run away with IOWA.

Good luck with that.

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. They don't have metrics or a model that can evaluate Bloomberg's chances

No way Tulsi Gabbard has an equal chance with Bloomberg, for example. They have never handicapped a race before where a candidate can write a 100 million dollar check for more media ads on a whim.