About 50% of voters more likely to vote for Sanders after Iowa. About 50% more likely FOR BIDEN

[highplainsdem]

It was 52% for Sanders, 48% for Biden, a statistical tie within the poll's MOE.

I'm posting this to correct an OP here with a misleading headline, based on a Newsweek story misinterpreting what today's Morning Consult poll said.

Here's the actual finding from Morning Consult:

https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/06/buttigieg-and-sanders-move-up-biden-slides-after-bungled-iowa-caucuses/

While Biden’s support fell in daily tracking, a separate Morning Consult poll conducted Feb. 4-5 found Democratic primary voters only slightly more likely to say they were more inclined to support Sanders than the former vice president following the Iowa results, 52 percent to 48 percent. The poll found a similar gap between Warren and Buttigieg (41 percent to 38 percent), within the sample’s 3-point margin of error.

[sandensea]

1. Interesting

Both would be formidable challengers to Idi Trumpin.

Would've been great to have the first woman president this year, though - but I admit that looks increasingly unlikely.

[highplainsdem]

2. I still hope Sanders will fail and Warren will surge past him. I think she's a much better leader

for that wing of the party.

[PatSeg]

4. Yes she is a better candidate in my mind

I think she is smarter, more personable, and more capable of compromise. I've admired both her and Sanders for a long time, but I think Warren can actually implement a lot of her ideas. Also she is much more upbeat and positive. I'm tired of angry men yelling at me.

[highplainsdem]

5. +1,000,000

[sandensea]

6. I feel pretty much the same

I like Bernie, and think he'd be a good nominee - but Liz would be even better.

Besides having an encyclopedic knowledge of the problems of the day, she has that down-home Oklahoma charm that I think would work best against The Orange Beast.

[PatSeg]

11. I remember seeing Warren on TV

before she ran for office and she was incredible. She could explain economics in way that anyone could understand and she even made it interesting. I find her to be totally authentic, which is important to me.

[sandensea]

12. Personally, I think we'll probably have a Biden-Warren ticket.

My personal preference aside, I think Biden might clinch this on Super Tuesday (all those Southern states).

And if he is in fact the nominee, I think he'll agree that Warren would be his best choice as running mate - for a number of reasons (a woman who balances the ticket, etc.).

Can you imagine Warren debating Dense Pence!!!

[PatSeg]

13. I'm pretty sure Biden will be the nominee

and I have no doubt he will have a woman running mate. Warren would be great. She already showed that she could be an incredible attack dog when she campaigned with Hillary. When Joe was considering whether to run in 2016, he had a long meeting with Warren and a lot of people believed, he was considering her for a running mate should he decide to run.

I also think though, that Biden might want to pick a woman of color like Abrams or Harris, especially being he has such strong African American support. If that is the case, I hope he finds a place for Warren in his administration. I always felt like she got a raw deal from the Obama administration when he failed to nominate her chairman to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that she helped to create. Of course, it was believed she couldn't have gotten confirmed because of strong republican opposition. That's okay, she showed them by getting elected to the senate. Just imagine if she ended up president or vice president!

[sandensea]

14. Can't wait!

Your words to God's ear.

[OliverQ]

7. Swing states are probably not going to vote for a woman.

As much as I'm pro-Warren, she's polling below Trump in most swing states.

[UniteFightBack]

16. That's why I don't understand why we are not rallying around the person who is doing the

best in the swing states. ???/

[OliverQ]

17. I agree. When are you going to start supporting Bernie?

[UniteFightBack]

18. He's not doing the best in the swing states as well as a host of other reasons and the same

could be asked of yourself. I personally think Warren is an easier sell then Bernie even though she is doing worse than Bernie in the swing states.

[OliverQ]

19. I don't think Biden is going to be doing well for much

longer. Losing Iowa badly and losing New Hampshire is really going to hurt him. Bernie also got the largest minority vote in Iowa by far.

And now that the Treasury just handed Hunter Biden's tax returns to Lindsey Graham, I'm worried what stupid nonsense they're going to be using against Biden soon. Sorry to say, but Biden is going to get the same treatment Hillary got with all those ridiculous, made-up scandals.

[UniteFightBack]

20. Yes I know people are not voting strategically. Once again dump is rewarded for his illegal

activity with trying to take Biden down. I wonder why he's so concerned with taking him down.

I wouldn't read too much in Bernie 'winning' a minuscule minority vote in Iowa and I wouldn't count Biden out just yet.

[Demsrule86]

21. Why would it. Bernie lives next door and so does Warren. Unless folks fall

for media shite, Biden should do just fine on super Tuesday. If Biden falters, I will vote for Bloomberg when Ohio votes. I want to win and Sanders won't . Sanders has my vote in a general.

[OliverQ]

22. Why do you assume Bloomberg can win and Bernie can't?

Where is Bloomberg's support going to come from? He's an out of touch billionaire and an elitist who was involved in a horrible policy against blacks in New York. He's going to lose the young vote, the progressive vote, and the minority vote.

[Demsrule86]

23. Sanderrs is too far left...the socialist label will stick unlike with other candidates.

He will not win in states we need like WI, PA and MI. He is not well liked by AA voters who are extremely important in any Democratic win. He is divisive and has already split the party. Not only will he lose the blue wall states. He could lose states like Virginia, Delaware and Minnesota.

We have a chance to win because Trump`s policies have hurt blue wall states but not with Sanders at the top of the ticket. He is too far left to win moderate states. Generally incumbents win so we need a real effort and some luck to best Trump.. This will be a tough election and Trump wants Sanders for a reason.

Trump can win in the Mid West...and beyond by attacking Sanders as a socialist and a tax and spend Democrat...but the grestest irony will be Trump will use Health care against him. M4A is not popular and will be less popular after the GOP finishes their vicious attacks. And expect an investigation of Jane Sanders and the college thing. Sanders has not been vetted really so the hell unleashed by Trump and the GOP will hurt him badly.

Sanders has my vote in a general but I think he loses 35 state, the house and fails to retake the Senate...we could lose at the state level also and with a census looming that would spell disaster. Sanders is not a good presidential nominee ever IMHO but in 2020, he will lead us to a terrible loss similar to McGovern`s and Dukakis`s losses many years before.

[OliverQ]

24. Uh, Bernie is polling way better in Wisconsin than Biden is.

Bernie also beat Hillary in the 2016 primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin has a long history of Socialism.

Obama was called a Socialist for 8 years.

Sanders is extremely well liked by African Americans. He has the 2nd highest African American support after Biden, and he won the Iowa minority vote by double digits. He also has the largest Latino support.

Biden is going to be hit with the Ukraine scandal like crazy. The Treasury department is already giving Hunter Biden's financial info to Lindsey Graham. Look how much damage Hillary's stupid scandals did to her. You think Biden is going to survive similar scandals? I doubt it.

Your post is not actually presenting any valid evidence of your claims.

[Demsrule86]

25. You can believe what you choose. Sanders won't win Wisconsin or other

Mid West states IMHO. If he is the nominee, i sincerely hope I am wrong,

[OliverQ]

26. And you have no factual evidence to support your conclusion.

[Demsrule86]

30. I gave you my reasons in great detail...you simply disagree...you have no evidence that he can win

a general...don't show me polls I can match you poll for poll showing he will lose. I consider him to be a risky nominee at best and now with operation chaos in full swing, we won't even know who is really voting for him in a general.

[LanternWaste]

32. Odd... you've made many allegations lacking data to support them in this thread.

But I get it... it's convenient to hold others to a higher standard than we hold ourselves to.

[Demsrule86]

29. He might win a primary especially with GOP chaos votes...but after he vetting he loses

the general. Operation chaos voters only vote for Sanders in the primary...in the general...it is Trump all the way. Mark my words, if Sanders is the nominee, Trump gets another four years...and maybe we lose the house. He has my vote of course (Sanders).

[emmaverybo]

27. You covered it. The rebuttal that Obama was called a socialist fails. Obama never had embraced

socialism so only racists believed it because they wanted to. Obama never even talked social democracies. Bernie was infatuated with communism unfortunately and his I am a Socialist
will go viral on MSM and be looped on Fox.

Of course the voters we need to bolster our numbers will believe his socialism will bankrupt us. His piece de resistance is to come after our affordable private insurance, the plans we gave up salary for, and raise our taxes in exchange for some Romanian style heath care for all where we have to bribe doctors to get an appointment.

But that’s just the starter. Bernie wants to give away 60 trillion dollars to the rich and the poor alike. Could be more. Even he doesn’t know.

They could call Obama a socialist, but the majority knew he didn’t act or sound like one. To a lot of Americans Bernie does.

[Demsrule86]

28. That is exactly correct...and Sanders has other stuff that could be used as well.

[UniteFightBack]

15. Absolutely...and she has accomplished and gotten things done. nt

[Cha]

3. Iowa is a non diverse causus state that had a lower turnout.

and its not indicative of America.

[Maggiemayhem]

8. I'll bet the Trump campaign is over the moon with this info

to bash Dems with.

[emmaverybo]

9. Let's not go mad yet. Bernie got a bounce. He might double bounce with NH. But his appeal is

not solid enough or widespread, so inevitably he snaps back like a rubber band.

The problem is that he’s a man of small accomplishment, tangible, politically speaking, and projects an image that will not play well across the nation. That “no one likes him” has been test-run for decades in congress. It isn’t mere rumor.

In battleground states across the nation, with moderate independents and never-Trumpers, as a party uniter and cheerleader to rally the Dem vote, we could not choose a figure less well-suited.

Trump as candidate could manage humor, superficial charm, and hadn’t yet become the physical wreck he is now. Of course, Bernie is a better person and would make thousands times a better president, but non-politically involved Americans see persona, not real person. And media projects image, not inner substance.

“No one likes him” was true when he was on the small screen, in a bit role. Imagine he is starring, in the part of his life, 24/7, on the national screen, blown up huge, interacting with media, crowds, in every venue and format, our sole representative, our only argument for winning the White House—and we had to go and choose a guy nobody in congress liked whose own words convict him of being a socialist...

Think this through.

[thesquanderer]

10. Margin of error is important, but don't read TOO much into it.

It doesn't mean that that Sanders' 52% could just as easily be 49%. It's still likely to be closer to 52%. MoE of 3 means that there is a high likelihood (typically 95%) that the actual number is within three... but it also means that, even within that range, numbers closer to the given figure are more likely to be correct than numbers that are further from it (so in this case, the correct number is more likely to be 52 than either 51 or 53; and it is more likely to be 51 or 53 than it is to be 50 or 54, and so on). So you need to imagine two 6-point bell curves, one centered on 52, and one centered on 48, and the area where they overlap gives you an idea of the likelihood of the "lower" result potentially ending up higher than the "higher" result.

[LanternWaste]

31. IA demographics: 90% white. NH demographics: 93% white

When the less-white states begin voting, my guess is things will dramatically change. It's a marathon, not a sprint... and the white-dominated states gave a candidate or two a measurable advantage.

When the mid-game begins and the lanes are predicated on a more accurate representation of America, I think those advantages will quickly vanish, and with them, a few campaigns.