Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumMonmouth NH poll, Feb 3-5: Sanders 24%, Buttigieg 20%, Biden 17%, Warren 13%, Klobuchar 9%
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nh_020620.pdf/-snip-
With the campaign still in flux, Monmouth examined the race under a number of different scenarios. Likely Democrats were asked how they would vote if the field was winnowed down. In a race restricted to the top five polling candidates, hypothetical support stands at 27% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 17% Biden, 13% Warren, and 13% Klobuchar. Take Klobuchar out of this picture and the race tightens to 28% Sanders, 28% Buttigieg, 19% Biden, and 16% Warren.
Monmouth analysts also ran a variety of likely voter models on the full list of candidates in addition to the benchmark results reported in this release. A model that increases the share of low propensity voters shows Sanders in front with 25%, Buttigieg at 19%, Biden at 16%, Warren at 12%,Klobuchar at 8%, Yang at 5%, and Gabbard and Steyer at 4% each. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Sanders with 22%, Buttigieg at 21%, Biden at 18%, Warren at 15%, Klobuchar at 10%, Gabbard at 3%, and Steyer and Yang at 2% each.
Emphasis added.
The model that focuses on what are usually callled likely voters has the top 3 in a 4-point range, a statistical tie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)Come on Bailey, look pretty.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)I don't doubt that Warren is working hard, but I think we'd be seeing results by now if Warren was catching fire.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)It would be a blast. She can have Sanders vote and Buttigieg can stay up there. A race between Warren and Buttigieg. Ya, POC block. But, I am lightening up a bet and having some fun with this primary. We have all been so serious of late. Trump exhausts me.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)I do not see us winning NH.. never have.. but don't let the polls sink anyone into thinking that they have this. I have had three different people who know I am a Biden supporter come up shocked, just shocked he did not get at least 3rd or 2nd (Bernie and company have been working the lines for 5 years here, they did not do as well as I thought they would.. I am just gobsmacked by the whole thing).. so they did not go to caucus.. CRAP! but it is what it is.. learn from us.. keep pushing and checking in with people.. and if you do not see a Biden person walking your neighborhood.. for the love of GOD volunteer and get out there..lets try and get a 2nd in NH.. it would be awesome!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)Perhaps people should wait until more primaries are conducted.
I just saw a Bloomberg ad with him and President Obama. Trying to go after AA.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)Bloomberg is just pounding states with commercials where other candidates are not at now.. its a tough row to hoe against all the financial power
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)the latest Emerson tracking poll has Sanders at +10.
Sanders 31%
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 12%
Warren 11%
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,004 posts)tracking poll in just one day, meaning the last of the days averaged was a huge loss.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)is getting a traditional bounce out of Iowa while Biden is fading. But yet, Sanders maintains the lead. In my opinion, Biden's campaign is about finished.
By the way, I find it sad that you are rooting so hard against Sanders. I hope you will be able to lay down your animosity if Sanders is the nominee and get to the real business of defeating Donald Trump!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
krissey
(1,205 posts)track. Whether five or ten loss for Sanders, seeing two numbers, that is a shift. In just a day. Who knows what tomorrow will bring. There are opportunities to be had.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
And clearly Buttigieg is surging and Biden is fading.
I don't see how the Biden campaign can explain two straight fourth place finishes if Warren takes third in NH.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
krissey
(1,205 posts)Harris should not have gotten out.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)Biden is ahead in 10 of the Super Tuesday states. Twice as many as strong victory win Bernie. And Biden polled at 13% and 14% in several pre debate NH polls. Now I guess he's rising. Your opinion IMHO is not based on facts. Just wishful thinking. Sad.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)But Biden isn't going to be the nominee. I respect Biden too and think he is a good man. He has done a lot for our country.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)is incapable of doing anything other than losing to Toad in a 49-state landslide, Jeremy Corbyn style. He will never be anything more than the fake democratic socialist senator from Vermont who elected Toad, not once, but twice. That said, I do agree with you that it does appear that he is running away with the Democratic party nomination sadly and tragically.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)Sanders will beat Trump and in my opinion, he is our best option at beating Trump in the general.
I also think some of the other candidates can beat Trump too, but Sanders brings the passion, movement, and commitment we need.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)kinda wrong with Mayor Pete.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasTowelie
(112,251 posts)leading up to the primaries. Bernie should win this primary by a large margin since it is in his backyard and New Hampshire and Vermont share media markets. Anything less than a 10% margin for Bernie in New Hampshire should be considered a lackluster performance.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(112,251 posts)Iowa was supposed to be a major win for Bernie and it turned out to be a dud instead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
krissey
(1,205 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(112,251 posts)I would also place much more confidence in the results of a primary than the results of a caucus.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)He polled better at times before Iowa. At this rate he'll end up with more delegates from the caucus than from here.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)And that's why he's currently polling at 4th in Minnesota, 5th in Oklahoma and Missouri, 3rd in Tenn. and Mass., 8th in Montana, and 0% in Wyoming.
Competition.
I bet he misses running as the anti-Hillary when he could tout his 43% finish as bestowing a mandate on him and his socialist ideals.
Now he's back down in the 20's with his base.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progress_Dem
(96 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
krissey
(1,205 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)There are people who are here one day and gone the next who do nothing but post fact free nonsense. It's like this place self corrects. LOL
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)If it's essentially a one or two-point difference between the two, I don't know if it'll be all that damaging. Biden can claim 'comeback status' after everyone wrote him off and make a play for Nevada and SC, where Mayor Pete won't be as competitive.
But you're right that if Biden is a distant third, it's going to be very damaging.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sanders winning NH and Buttigieg finishing ahead of Biden would be a double whammy. If Buttigieg wins NH, it would take wind out of the Sanders sail, and Biden could still win big in SC (depending, in part, on what happens in NV). If, on the other hand, Sanders wins NH and NV and Buttigieg finishes ahead of Biden in both, Biden's support will collapse to the point where SC is in play. And then he's effectively done.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MoonlitKnight
(1,584 posts)So anything goes.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,004 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,678 posts)Interesting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden