FiveThirtyEight now says Sanders has a 49% chance of winning the Democratic nomination

[Polybius]

Interesting. In second place is Biden with a 17% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[octoberlib]

1. Silver is basing it off of Biden's performance

in Iowa. It’s still too soon and I look for this to change or we’re screwed.

Link to tweet

?s=21

Notes: 1—We're still using the Upshot's estimates for win probability. (We think those folks are great FYI).

2—I do wonder how realistic all this is. Our model assumes a big bonus for winning even by a small %. But it's been >2 days and the interpretation of the race may be set.


Here's more about our latest model update.

I'd emphasize: It's making *educated guesses* about the effects of Iowa. There aren't many new polls yet. Once polls come in, it may react quite strongly to them. The initial guesses could prove to be bad

[BlueJac]

2. I feel Bloomberg is going to be a huge contender soon.

[Jarqui]

3. Based on Nate's book title, "the signal and the noise"

at this early stage, before we even have final results in the first state, this % assessment is merely noise to me. There is a long way to go.

After super Tuesday, maybe the fog on where this contest is heading will have lifted enough. But for now, it is way too soon.

[Alliepoo]

4. Sure hope this turns out to be a bunch of baloney.

Otherwise we’re screwed. Completely. Screwed.

[Ilsa]

5. People who would have voted D will

use the socialism angle to rationalize voting for the Drumpf.

I don't think this is the time to run on "sweeping and systemic change." A safer push is to run on getting the madman out of power.

Just my opinion.

[octoberlib]

6. Agree.

[redstatebluegirl]

7. I sure hope they are wrong like they usually are.

[NedBraden]

8. What would it say ex IA ?

The NYT just sent an alert to my phone. Their analysis is that the IA results have to many inconsistencies, and are not reliable.

My question about the IA debacle: cui bono?