Biden's new reality: What happens when a candidate who guarantees wins starts by losing?

[left-of-center2012]

Joe Biden has insisted for months he's the only sure-fire winner in a head-to-head match-up with President Donald Trump in the Democratic Party's primary field. He'd "beat him like a drum," Biden often says.

But Biden was in fourth place in the Iowa caucuses with 62% of precincts counted -- lagging well behind the two leaders, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and third-place Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

And popular vote numbers indicating Biden fell behind the 15% viability threshold to win delegates in some precincts were a clear indictment of his campaign's weak organizing effort in the state.

The former vice president must now answer new doubts about his core argument: If a candidate who has framed his campaign around the notion that he's more electable than his rivals loses the first election of the nominating process,where does that leave him?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/politics/joe-biden-iowa-campaign/index.html

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. It's Iowa.

My question is why anybody thinks a lily-white rural state with a fucked-up caucus means much of anything.

[brooklynite]

2. Biden does...

[Ligyron]

3. I don't get why low population, lilly white states get to go first and have the influence they do.

If say, California went first we'd have a whole other, much better country.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. Each state decides when it will have its caucus/primary.

And they keep creeping up earlier in the year. Iowa makes a ton of money from advertisers and the media because it has its caucuses first. But NH has the first primary, and its state election law says it has to have the first primary, so if Iowa switches to a primary NH will move its primary so it's ahead of Iowa's.

Yes, it's stupid.

[killaphill]

20. If California was first...

The days of small, insurgent candidacies would be over forever. The size of the state would demand huge campaign budgets just to get started. Only the wealthy need apply.

[Ligyron]

21. Oopsy, yeah didn't think about that.

[Thekaspervote]

5. This!!

[DeminPennswoods]

10. Aren't those the voters Biden's planning to win, though?

A lot of his campaign has been about how he'll win back or win over the rural white Trump voters. And, Iowa is the poster child for them.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

12. Not really that much. He's been focusing more on the industrial states

like PA, MI and WI that Trump won last time but shouldn't have, more than rural voters. That's where the electoral votes are - not the rural midwest.

[DeminPennswoods]

18. I am in PA and those voters Biden is

targeting are not that much different, if at all, from the rural voters in Iowa. Many people don't know or realize that agriculture/agribusiness is the largest industry in Pennsylvania. If Biden had trouble winning farmers in Iowa, how is he going to win them in Pennsylvania?

[George II]

16. Very few, if any, rural white trump voters participated in the Democratic caucus.

[DeminPennswoods]

19. Did Biden win the ones who did participate?

Have not followed the ins and out of Iowa as closely as you evidently have.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

4. Just makes me wonder after this debacle

And Sander's, Warren or mayor Pete had come in fourth. Would threads look similar only the person name changed?




OF COURSE

[Thekaspervote]

7. Indeed!!

[Jersey Devil]

6. "Is this Heaven? It's Iowa"

[treestar]

8. you're just falling into the narrative that one state by going first

really matters the most.

No one has to "win" every state (this is not winner take all, so it's not really a win/lose thing for each state).

Let's see if you convince any of Biden's supporters to change to Mayor Pete on this ground.

[LanternWaste]

11. No one thought Biden would walk away with the blue-ribbon

This was Bernie's state to win or lose. And his loss was dramatic, epic and a harbinger of of things to come.

Try applying the premise in SC, then the author can get back to us... that's Biden's turf, not the homogeneous demographics of IA or NH.

Editorials are simply not reality... regardless of how many times one may click their heels together and wish. My guess is the only one's questioning Biden's results in IA are the same ones who told us he's a "third-way shill" and other such absurd nonsense.

[melman]

15. "And his loss was dramatic, epic and a harbinger of of things to come."

Sounds like another biased interpretation used to push another narrative as someone once said

[beastie boy]

13. They should ask the Washington Nationals what happens.

They lost the first two games of the season. And, surprise, surprise! They didn't drop out!

[sinkingfeeling]

14. He won't be the first who lost Iowa and ends with the nomination.

[R B Garr]

17. Biden said he would not attack Democrats. This is a Democratic primary.

What does Biden saying he'll "beat him like a drum" about Repubican Trump have to do with a Democratic primary??

Looks like he has sharpened a bit, but it's pretty obvious that he will treat Democrats differently -- for obvious reasons.