Odds makers give Sanders a enormous 10 pt bump after Iowa acording to rcp avg

[Bumperstickers]

Sanders has gone from being a 9 pt underdog on January 22 to being a 18.6 favorite on Feb. 4th with a 10 pt rise from the 3rd to the 4th

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

[RandySF]

1. Anything other news to brighten my day?

[lapfog_1]

2. if Sanders is the nominee, what do the odds makers say are his chances of winning

in the general?

[bluewater]

3. Dunno. But Virtually all the head to head polls show him beating Trump.

[lapfog_1]

5. In a squeaker. Maybe...

and generally those are national poll averages... we need to know about swing states and the EC... otherwise it will be a repeat of 2016.

Even the fading Warren beats Trump by more than Sanders.

[bluewater]

6. Not true. Sanders is usually just 1% or so behind Biden in beating Trump head to head.

And talk about fading...

Biden Slump in Iowa May Signal Bigger Campaign Woes

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-slump-in-iowa-may-signal-bigger-campaign-woes/ar-BBZFfDs

Joe Biden’s campaign tries to reassure donors he will win Nevada and South Carolina after Iowa chaos

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/biden-reassures-donors-he-will-win-nevada-south-carolina-after-iowa-caucus.html

Big victory' for Buttigieg, 'big trouble' for Biden based on latest Iowa results

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/big-victory-for-buttigieg-big-trouble-for-biden-based-on-latest-iowa-results/ar-BBZFmYT?li=AAggNb9

[lapfog_1]

7. Joe is 50% higher margin than Sanders when compared to Trump

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

average 5.4

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

average 3.7

With the margins so thin... we really need the insurance.

And some polls show Trump beating Sanders.

And, again, these are nationwide polls, what about the EC polling in just those states that are swing states. I don't really care how many millions more CA voter vote blue... their (my) votes don't count.

[bluewater]

9. The big question is will Joe's polls hold if he continues to lose actual primaries.

Time will tell.

[lapfog_1]

10. and what about Warren? How is she doing? did she win Iowa? Do as well as expected?

The same could be asked of any candidate.

[bluewater]

11. Both Biden and Warren under performed. Biden underperformed more so.

I have a preferred candidate, but I try to stay in touch with reality.

To be honest, many people are so used to Joe doing well in the Polls, that they ignore information that shows him doing less and less well.

I try not to do that when it comes to Warren.

[DanTex]

13. As of right now, they give Bernie a 60% of beating Trump, which is the highest.

Biden has a 47% chance. Bloomberg 59%. Pete 53%.

You can calculate that by dividing the overall chances of becoming president by the chances of winning the nom, since the nom is a precondition for being president. So, for example, Bernie is at 43 for nomination, and 26 for president, and we get 26/43 = 60.465...%

These numbers jump around a bit with trading noise, but it's been pretty consistent that Bernie has been the most electable with oddsmakers for the last month or so.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

[DanTex]

4. Pete and Bloomberg got bumps too.

Looks right now like Bernie is the favorite at 40, and Pete/Joe/Mike in the second tier in the 15-20 range.

I think, ironically, having Pete do so well may have actually helped Bernie's odds because it increases the chances that those three candidates will split the centrist vote all the way to the convention.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

12. .

[Zeus69]

8. Is what it is...

But so much changes in so little time. It was several months ago that Elizabeth Warren had + 35 odds against a second place Biden. Obviously, that faded quickly.

If South Carolina had been the first vote in the primary cycle, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. So I still believe things are fluid. If Biden flames out and no one steps up to absorb his support base, then Sanders it shall be.

If that happens, I’ll vote for Sanders but Trump will get re-elected.