Remember everyone, in 1992 Bill Clinton got only 2.8%, finishing 4th behind Harkin, Uncommitted...

[George II]

....and Tsongas. He then went to New Hampshire where he finished second with only 24%. He won the nomination and the Presidency.

24 years later his wife won Iowa by a mere 0.2% and lost New Hampshire by 23%. She won the nomination and most of us think the Presidency.

Combined Iowa and New Hampshire are only 65 delegates, less than 21 other states, and only 1.7% of all the pledged delegates.

[bluewater]

1. So you are saying Joe is finished if he can't get at least 2nd in NH?

You are probably correct.

[George II]

7. No. Another thing to remember, Hillary Clinton finished "last" in NH (only two candidates).

[bluewater]

11. So Biden should keep losing?

That's a strange strategy.

Let's see how that works out for him in Nevada too.

[Cha]

15. Yep.. so who knows.

[Blue_true]

37. You're normally spot on, but I believe that you are grasping.

If Biden does poorly in New Hampshire, the dynamics of the race changes dramatically, if he does Nevada becomes a problem and I think South Carolina comes into play for people other than him. In 16, Hillary won Iowa, got beaten up in NH, won Nevada, and then pounded Bernie is South Carolina and went and battered him again in the SEC states. This year, Biden can't stay in the South after South Carolina, there is California and Texas in the mix (Texas was early last year and Hillary used the SC primary to show strength in Texas),

Biden HAS to win NH or at least beat one of the three people that beat him in Iowa, if not, he could be done.

[jalan48]

2. Bill was young and had a ton of enthusiasm.

[Blue_true]

38. And he went all over that state, doing several events a day and doing

them into the night. So far Joe has like 4 things planned.

[jalan48]

42. Joe isn't the man he was 10 years ago.

[Blue_true]

43. That concerns me.

Trump likes to be in front of crowds talking nonsense. If our nominee can't match Trump rally for rally, then some and go everywhere, I believe that we will lose.
The concern that I have about Bloomberg is whether he is willing to press the flesh at out of the way rallies, many voters like a chance to meet the candidate. I love Warren's energy, I think that she would campaign her ass off if she is our nominee. I also like Pete, he seems to be ok with long days of rallies.

[pfeiffer]

3. Exactly!

[Cha]

4. Boom! So much "enthusiasm" Pres Clinton didn't win Iowa

15 candidates who won the Iowa caucus, but lost the presidency — and the 3 presidents who won both

https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-caucuses-winners-very-few-candidates-become-president

[oasis]

13. That's it.

[bluewater]

19. lol the article proves the opposite.

In contested primaries, the winner of Iowa won the nomination 11 out of 19, with the winner VASTLY outperforming fields of multiple candidates in that respect.

That article shows that, I used it myself to make just this point.

lol

[bluewater]

16. That article shows the nominee won Iowa 11 out of 19 times!

In contested primaries, the person who won Iowa won their party's nomination 11 out of 19 times.

I know, because I used that very article to do the math for a previous post.

That's a 58% rate if it were just head to head primary contests, but most of those had multiple candidates and the Iowa winner VASTLY outperformed the rest of the field in getting the nomination.

Thanks for posting that again showing how important winning early is.

[oasis]

27. 11/19. Congrats on your adeptness with the figures. However,

I'm not willing to fold up my tent until I see numbers which are much closer to a sure thing.

[bluewater]

33. That's fair.

NH is up next. Then Nevada.

Good luck to you and your preferred candidate.

[oasis]

34. Thank you.

[Bradshaw3]

5. Perhpas 2008 is a better indicator

Biden finished fifth in Iowa that year and dropped out right after.

[Thekaspervote]

8. So

[Bradshaw3]

17. Is this an upgrade from "meh"?

Or "sez you"?

[Thekaspervote]

20. IA is one of the 15 states and territories sanders is predicted to win, Biden takes the other 42

[Bradshaw3]

26. Meh

[George II]

10. Biden got 0.9% in 2008, he got 15.6% last night - that's almost 20X.

[Bradshaw3]

14. Good enough for fourth place and still not very good

For the supposed frontrunner. He is in trouble, like it or not.

[George II]

18. Biden was NEVER the front runner in Iowa, nor New Hampshire. Sanders has proven himself....

....to be strong in mostly white caucus and open-primary states. And yet he may still not have won Iowa (with half the support of last time) and his lead in New Hampshire is about one-quarter of last time.

[bluewater]

21. Rcp Polls disagrees with you. Biden was the front runner in both states.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html


Biden was the front runner and consistently near the top in both Iowa and NH.

[Thekaspervote]

29. Better look at your links...

[bluewater]

32. lol Yep, Biden led in both states at times. Links work fine!

and was consistently near the top in both.

Remember I was replying to the poster that said this:

Biden was NEVER the front runner in Iowa, nor New Hampshire

[Bradshaw3]

25. Actually his people were talking about finishing one or two there

And they threw a lot of money into it. And heard tonight that he is in trouble financially. Also, Sanders is NOT Biden's problem right now. It is Mayor Pete.

[DonaldsRump]

31. I think Mayor Pete's is BS's biggest problem right now.

Let's see.

And then unite.

[Thekaspervote]

6. IA & NH are 2 of the 15 states and territories sanders is predicted to win. Biden takes 42

Not in the least worried!!

[George II]

12. And he's probably already lost Iowa.

[Thekaspervote]

24. Sweet!

[evertonfc]

9. None of this field

is Bill Clinton. That's for sure.

[LisaM]

22. Harkin was from Iowa (and was a very dynamic candidate).

In fact, I voted for Harkin in my caucus later on. He came out and spoke and got everybody fired up, but I guess we weren't ready for him.

But the Clinton people were well organized, and they truly believed in their candidate. They worked really hard. And they ended up unseating a sitting president.

One thing that fascinated me about Clinton was his sense of humor. There was a very crowded field that year, and Jerry Brown was trying to run as an outsider, maybe the Bernie of his day, so to speak. He had this 800 number he'd give out at the drop of a pin, and he tried to work it into some town hall or something they were having with all the Democratic candidates sitting in a row in their chairs.

The moderator tried to dissuade Jerry Brown from using that forum as a free means to get his 800 number out to everyone, but Clinton leaned in laughing and said something like, "bwa ha ha, we all know Jerry's 800 number!" In fact, he was this close to giving it out himself. Like, "hi, I'm Bill Clinton, and here's Jerry Brown's 800 number for small donations!" When the dust settled and Clinton beat everybody out, I remembered that moment. I would love to see some of that humor now.

[Vogon_Glory]

23. I'm of a wait-and-see mindset myself.

Thus far we've only seen the incomplete results for Iowa, and even there it looks like these forums' favorite has been edged out by Mayor Pete.

The people most enthusiastic about seeing Good Old Joe tank work for the Trump campaign.

While I am not happy with one or two of the remaining candidates, all of them stand head and shoulders over that man in the White House. I will vote blue, no matter who.

[chillfactor]

28. Thank you for the reminder.....

Far too many people here seem to be forgetting that Iowa is NOT the end all for any candidate including Joe Biden!

[Legends303]

30. Biden was Vice President for 8 years

He should have done better and if this Biden supporters says he has to lose a bunch states in order to win, Biden is going to be in real trouble since he is already at a bad start.

[mcar]

35. The media focus on Iowa,

especially after this debacle, is just ridiculous. I turned CNN off when they were treating their usual 5 p.m. new show as election night. They had nothing to report, except these are the results of 62% of the caucuses - maybe.

Like there is no other news going on in the country, or the world. Pathetic.

[Blue_true]

36. Bill Clinton blanketed New Hampshire.

He was everywhere and spoke to everyone good naturedly. There is a famous photo of him in the rain shaking people's hands who were stopped in traffic, a few hours before polls closed.

Basically, he worked his ass off to insure that he would get to the southern primaries viable.

If you are pointing to Joe Biden, my concern is whether he is up to the backbreaking work that Clinton put in 92. So far, his itenerary in New Hampshire is thin, Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are covering the state.

One issue that I had with Hillary in Florida in 16 was that she only went to about four large cities, while Trump blanketed the state with visits. Hillary lost by only 115,000 votes out of something like 8 million, including doing better than I expected her to do in my red county, even though she had NO presence here (Trump actually did a rally in my city). My concern with Biden now is that he won't hit the campaign trial hard, New Hampshire is his test, if he doesn't campaign every day, several times per day, maybe he should end his campaign in favor of people that are making more stops.

[Scurrilous]

39. History and Math not allowed in the age of Bernie.

They will come for apostates like you and load you into their tumbrels.

[brooklynite]

40. You don't remember "the comeback kid"?

Clinton's 2nd place finish and vote share was critical is creating a narrative of building momentum.

[Garrett78]

41. IA was essentially nullified in '92 due to Harkin being in the race, and Clinton wasn't...

...the presumed frontrunner. So, I'd say this is a case of apples and oranges.

IA and NH have never mattered because of how many delegates they produce. They've mattered because of the narrative they produce. That's why we typically see at least one candidate drop out after Iowa (including Biden in 2008), and it's why B. Clinton is the only candidate who has won the nomination after losing both IA and NH. The "comeback kid" narrative after B. Clinton's strong finish in NH was the dominant narrative.

If Biden finishes 2nd in NH and 1st or 2nd in NV, he could certainly become the 2nd person to win the nomination without winning either IA or NH. But if he doesn't finish in the top 2 in either NH or NV, look for people in SC to abandon ship.

The Iowa shitshow dampens the damage done to Biden. It's also to his advantage that Buttigieg doesn't have much support among persons of color. And Klobuchar didn't do well enough in Iowa to have much hope--I don't see how she has a path to the nomination, even with the recent surge. So, yeah, Biden is still very much in the game.