Pre Iowa Numbers NH tracker

[judeling]

Sanders 32
Biden and Warren 13
Buttigieg and Klobuchar 12

Emerson Polling is running a tracking poll for ew Hampshire leading up to the Primary. The last one was in the field Feb 1-3, tomorrows will be in the field 2-today. This is essentially a 3 day moving average. So we should start to see any bump tomorrow.

The difference between yesterday and today was a 3 point bump for Bernie and a 4 point bump for Klobuchar.

Go ahead over the next couple of days to ignore the actual numbers. But the trends it shows will tell us a lot.

[TwilightZone]

1. "Go ahead...to ignore the actual numbers"

Polls aren't actual numbers. They're estimates, with varying levels of accuracy.

Votes are actual numbers.

[judeling]

2. You can either measure the direction or location different numbers tell you different things

So if you do car don't follow.

[tirebiter]

3. Iowa's 2020 polls are all over the map. But in SC, one candidate has a strong lead BY MAAYAN SCHECHT

In other early-state polling, 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls have jockeyed for the first and second spot, making it difficult to identify a clear front-runner.

But in South Carolina, home to the country’s “First in the South” primary, former Vice President Joe Biden still has a strong hold on his lead even as fewer than 35 days remain until the primary, according to a new poll by a Biden-backing super PAC provided to The State.

The poll, conducted by research and data firm GQR for Unite the Country, puts Biden’s statewide support at 44% — split 53% among black voters and 29% among white voters — which is higher than a Fox News poll out earlier this month that put Biden’s support at 36%.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article239675533.html
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IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE NO SOUTH CAROLINA

What can South Carolina glean from how voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada vote?

Maybe not a whole lot about how S.C. Democrats will vote at the end of the month. That’s because South Carolina — and Palmetto State Democrats, especially — are very different from their counterparts in the states with earlier contests.

“South Carolina voters, especially African American voters, have never depended on other states’ processes to determine the outcome of the South Carolina election,” said Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist, who called the elections in Iowa and New Hampshire a bit more of a “political roller coaster” than in South Carolina.

One way to look at the early-state lineup is Nevada and South Carolina balance the early states with more diversity than Iowa and New Hampshire. All together, the four states’ contests give a sampling of how different types of Democratic voters are responding to candidates.

Read more here: https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article239842498.html#storylink=cpy

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