A bad night for Biden in Iowa is good news for Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg

[left-of-center2012]

Joe Biden’s core message was electability, but the former vice president failed to consolidate support among the majority of Iowa caucus-goers who said choosing a candidate who can beat President Trump was their first priority, according to preliminary entrance polls conducted Monday night.

Just under one-quarter of electability-focused voters supported Biden, while a similar percentage backed former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg. Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) each drew about 15 percent support among this group.

“In the fast-growing Des Moines suburb of Ankeny, local Democrats expected Buttigieg and Warren to do well, as both had made repeated trips to the area and had large organizing operations,” Isaac Stanley-Becker reports. “They were surprised when dozens of Sanders supporters showed up and became the largest faction in the precinct.

Biden did not have enough support ... The theater was packed with large crowds for other candidates: 300 for Sanders, nearly 200 for Warren and nearly 100 for Buttigieg. Biden already has a painful history with Iowa. He dropped out in 1987 after being accused of plagiarizing a speech by British Labour leader Neil Kinnock while in Des Moines. In 2008, he finished fifth in the caucuses here, garnering less than 1 percent of the vote.

By James Hohmann - Analysis - February 4 at 10:41 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2020/02/04/daily-202-a-bad-night-for-biden-in-iowa-is-good-news-for-buttigieg-klobuchar-and-bloomberg/5e390df288e0fa7f82543cb6/

[stonecutter357]

1. good let's go Joe !

[LanternWaste]

2. IA was Bernie's to win or lose. No smart money was placed on Joe showing first place.

A handful of states have Bernie-friendly demographics. Same thing happened four years ago as well.

IA was the first step in a marathon.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Just means that new hampshire will be treated like the first state, I guess?

[Thekaspervote]

5. Indeed Ia was 1 of 15 states and territories sanders is projected to win. Biden wins 42

[emmaverybo]

8. Yes. Bernie HAS to win the earlies because down the road and in the long run he's in trouble.

[pfeiffer]

9. A big problem in Iowa last night for Bernie:

The Sanders campaign says it's been inspiring a "whole new generation of voters"? Well the new generation didn't appear to show-up last night - 35% total, down from Hillary's 44% in 2016 and a whopping 57% for Barack back in 2008.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/iowa-caucuses-turnout-entrance-poll-shows-dip-first-timers-n1129381

[BlueIdaho]

17. To be fair...

Not just Bernie. The entire Democratic field failed to generate the enthusiasm of past elections. But again, I’m not sure Iowa deserves much attention since it’s not really representative of too many other states.

[bluewater]

10. Except all the polls that had Biden leading?

New Iowa Poll Shows Tight Race, With Joe Biden Jumping Ahead

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/joe-biden-iowa-democratic-poll.html

Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Biden Leading in Iowa

https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2020/01/27/16/49/suffolk-university-usa-today-poll-shows-biden-leading-in-iowa

So... Lowering expectations AFTER THE FACT?

[denem]

12. DMR / Selzer had Biden 4th last three polls

[bluewater]

13. So we discount the polls that had Biden leading?

I believe the poster said something along the lines of 'No smart money was placed on Joe showing first place'.

That Monmouth University poll having Biden leading is rated A+ by 538, for example.



If the early reports hold true, Biden will have drastically underperformed in Iowa.

[denem]

15. Selzer has the track record

'her polls are what her polls are'

[ChubbyStar]

11. Having run many marathons, the first step is as important as the last

Are you a fellow runner?

[Quixote1818]

16. When Dean came in 3rd in Iowa he was pretty much done. I don't think Biden is done but

he took a big blow. Had it been a close second probably no big deal but 4th place is not going to play well. It also shows once people start to actually vote his name recognition advantage just dissolves.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. Until any results are officially released

This is not actually something we know

[still_one]

6. Winning the discriminatory caucus has noticed to do with electability, unless you believe in

a system that discriminates against those who have mobility issues, cannot spend hours in a caucus hall, or like people badgering each other to change the vote

Nice system

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

7. Been sayin for awhile Joe had no chance; a VP for 8 years comes in last in Iowa tells you as much.

It's BERNIE's time now!! We The People are tired of waiting for economic justice, racial equality, and environmental preservation... join with Bernie in a true aggressive progressive
revolution and together we will defeat that POS occupying our White House!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the Revolution!!

[denem]

14. Winners - FDR, JFK, Carter, Clinton, Obama, win first time around.

No second chances: Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Gore, HRC.
(yes I know Gore and HRC were robbed - but the elections were close enough to steal)

Biden and Bernie had their chances. It is time to move on.