Would you be shocked if Mayor Pete won the Iowa caucus?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I wouldn't be.

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	Yes
	7 (44%)
	No
	9 (56%)
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[Squinch]

1. Iowa is a crap shoot.

[Mike 03]

2. The polls are all over the place, so it could be up for grabs.

[jdl123]

3. Iowa

Why is the Iowa caucus so important?? I'm sure Iowa is a great state, great people. Iowa is only one of 50 states. If a candidate does great in Iowa, then they tell their donors, hey look, I did great, send more money. Is that the only reason? I realize I don't know much about politics? If I'm a candidate, I don't hang my hat on Iowa. I guess I'm missing the point?

[Qutzupalotl]

9. There is a "crowning" effect in the media around early primaries.

They’ll say, so-and-so is already way out ahead, so it’s almost a foregone conclusion that they’ll win. It’s unfortunate, but I don’t think we can shame the media into changing their behavior.

Voters are influenced as well. It seems that the early primaries make the later primaries shift to line up (but not perfectly) with the early results. So Iowa being first gives it outsized importance. I agree it’s not the most representative state. I’d be in favor of rotating the primary order among states, but they all think they’re the most important and should be first.

[squirecam]

4. I would

I think it’s Sanders, Warren or Biden that will win.

If Warren is non viable, I expect Sanders to benefit. Same with Biden for Amy.

I don’t think there are a bunch of Amy voters with Pete as their second choice.

For the record, I expect Warren to be viable state wide. Which if Amy voter go for Biden, makes him the winner.

[Scurrilous]

5. He was first at one point.

[squirecam]

6. Yes

but he has no second base of support.

Warren to Sanders or some to Biden.

Amy to Biden.

The non viable supporters will determine the ultimate winner. That won’t be Pete.

[LeftTurn3623]

8. that is so untrue

If you support Amy over Biden its most likely that feel Joe is past his prime and isnt a strong candidate and you are looking elsewhere. If that is the case why would you go to Biden? When Pete is another moderate candidate

[squirecam]

11. I support Amy because she would make the best president

Pete has been mayor. I don’t think that’s enough to run the country.

I think most Amy supporters would rather have a “past his prime” former VP then a mayor with limited experience.

[Qutzupalotl]

7. I would be delighted.

I like Biden, Pete, Warren and Klobuchar.

[booley]

10. I was talking to people in Ottumwa, Iowa last Saturday

It was all Sanders and a bit of Warren. No one even mentioned Buttigieg.

Not saying it's impossible and I saw a very small slice of Iowa. But there were more Trump supporters there than Buttigieg.