Just to review: Bennet, Gabbard Patrick, Yang, Steyer, and possibly Klobuchar...

[brooklynite]

...will not be viable in most districts. Their supporters will have to go elsewhere.

[PatSeg]

1. That should be interesting

[HerbChestnut]

2. Good point. Second choice votes will likely decide who wins the caucus tonight.

I think Bernie gets most Gabbard, Yang, and possibly Steyer voters. Bennet and Patrick don't have many, if any, supporters. Klobuchar supporters, if she's nonviable, will split between Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg with most going to Biden. That's my prediction anyway. If, somehow, Warren is nonviable (which I don't think will happen) then I think most of her supporters go to Bernie.

[redqueen]

3. I can guarantee most Yang won't move to Bernie.

Bernie's supporters have been treating Yang's supporters very poorly for months.

And that most likely goes for most other candidates as well. There's been an ocean of toxicity online.

[HerbChestnut]

4. Yang himself said it was likely his supporters' second choice is Bernie.

I won't argue with you about online toxicity. The internet has a way of bringing out the worst in people no matter who they support for a candidate.

[redqueen]

5. Yang is Yang - he is eternally optimistic and pragmatic.

Supporters know Iowa is about media coverage more than anything. Thus no real reason to move to Bernie.

What I expect is supporters of those who aren't in the lead will rally around a candidate in that group to get a delegate - not getting sucked into one of the top 3's groups.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Who do you think they will move to, if not Bernie?

Will they leave without making a second choice?

[redqueen]

8. I'm sure a large portion will.

Those would be the supporters who are Trump voters but like Yang.

Some would be the ones who never got involved in politics and only did for Yang. Some of those may be persuaded by other groups I'm sure.

[Hortensis]

18. Well, this is an interesting discussion. I just didn't think

about it, but of course Sanders online followers were treating Yang's badly. That's a given for any candidate seen as a danger. What I didn't realize is that Yang's followers would be specifically offended, would have assumed they were giving as good as getting, but I guess they'd be greatly outnumbered.

I'm not sure Herb's correct in dismissing the online influence. My notion is that Yang's are mostly young and tend to get most of their information/discussion on line (and not exactly from the same on-line sources as my husband and I do. )

[redqueen]

19. Yeah, there's been so much ugliness.

Yang leads by example. I think his polite support for Tulsi early on was done with an eye toward getting some of her supporters later on.

What Bernie's supporters have been doing is really nothing short of self-sabotage.

[Hortensis]

22. :) Nothing new about that last. But in a populist campaign,

turns out that kind of nasty behavior attracts antagonistic types eager to join in. So it's more of a plus than we realized. After all, those his campaign style disgusts wouldn't have been drawn anyway.

I haven't paid attention to Yang's leading by example, a new thought. First because he wasn't a serious contender and also because, as I've been a Democrat for a long time, his ideas aren't new
to me, so I just didn't pay much attention.

But also, not being a serious candidate meant he didn't need to elect Democrats around the nation at all levels to work with (which those who could really become president have to do). So he offended me by badmouthing Democrats instead of supporting them. Which is to say, in being irritated at his self-serving candidacy I missed whatever you find to admire in him.

[Autumn]

7. Who do you see Yang supporters going to?

[redqueen]

9. If I had to guess I'd say Gabbard, Warren, or Biden. nt

[Autumn]

13. Gabbard or Warren I could see, but I can't see them going to Biden. I may be wrong but I don't think

they will from the ones I know.

[redqueen]

14. Biden is the only other candidate who has acknowledged the threat to workers

posed by the fourth industrial revolution.

Also many of Yang's supporters are moderate Dems.

[Doremus]

15. Andrew Yang Says Supporters May Go to Sanders in Iowa Caucus

Andrew Yang said he won’t be surprised if his voters end up supporting Bernie Sanders in later rounds of the Iowa caucus voting -- a development that could strengthen Sanders’s already-surging campaign in the state.

Speaking at a Bloomberg News reporter round table in Des Moines, Yang said there is an “overlap” between his supporters and those of the progressive Vermont senator.

“I think that Bernie and I do have a lot of overlap in support so it wouldn’t be surprising to me if many of our supporters head in that direction,” he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/yang-says-supporters-may-go-to-sanders-in-iowa-caucus

[redqueen]

16. See post 5 nt

[Doremus]

17. Sounds plausible. It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out tonight. nt

[brooklynite]

11. Let's be clear on a point

99% of the people at caucus sites aren't hanging out on political blogs or social media to know they're being treated poorly.

[redqueen]

12. Heard of word of mouth?

Trust me. The obnoxious behavior displayed by Bernie's more aggressive supporters (or disruptors pretending to be his supporters) is not some secret that only people who hang out online are aware of.

[DanTex]

10. Yes. It gets interesting with Warren and Pete, who are close to the threshold.

If polls are correct, they will be viable in some districts and not others, and how that all plays out thing could have a significant impact on the results.

[Blue_Tires]

20. Who's giving Gabbard money to stay in the race

when Kamala ran out months ago?

[scheming daemons]

21. Gabbard's and Yang's will go to Bernie. The other will go to Biden, likely.