I will be honest about setting expectations for my candidate.

[bluewater]

There's a lot of "lowering expectations" gamesmanship going on in posts today as people get just a little nervous about tonight's caucus.

So let me buck that trend and tell you what would be a damaging sub-par performance for my preferred candidate, Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Finishing fourth would be very bad. Damn near campaign ending.

Third place would be meh. Second place a reason to keep fighting hard. Winning a huge plus.

Anyone else care to share what they think would be a damaging performance by their candidate? Add your upside takes too, but you need to say what a bad performance would be.

[denem]

1. 4th would be bad for Joe,

and I believe it is very much on the cards.

[bluewater]

2. Joe is not your preferred candidate.

I really was asking for people to discuss their OWN candidate and be honest about what the results would mean.

But thanks for responding.

[denem]

5. Oh. Sorry.

you answered how I see warren's situation

[bluewater]

12. No Problem, and thanks for responding!

I am just trying to draw people out about their own candidates.

[Docreed2003]

3. I've posted this before

But I think Warren surprises some folks tonight with how well she does. Frankly, I think Biden's position will be dependent upon how other factions break and who goes to who...it'll be interesting!

[bluewater]

6. What finish would you consider being bad for your candidate?

You get to state good outcomes too, but play along and share what would not meeting expectations look like for Joe.

[brooklynite]

4. Not being viable (regardless of position) would be damaging for any major candidate.

[bluewater]

8. Specifics.

What Buttigieg result would you say would be disappointing? Share that. And of course what results would be positive too.

Thanks.

[brooklynite]

9. As I said: non-viability (14% or less). Where he is in the ranking is pointless.

Positive would be first or second or a close third.

[bluewater]

11. Thanks for clearing up my confusion on that.

And for the positive outcomes too.

I don't think your candidate will have any problem being viable vis a vis the 15% threshold.

[frazzled]

7. Don't use Iowa as your metric

First, only about 15% of eligible voters attend the caucuses there. Second, it’s not like regular voting. It’s public alignment and realignment. If your candidate’s group of supporters does not reach 15% of the total attendance, you’ll have to realign with another candidate group. And there’s a lot of cajoling of people to switch lanes.

Put that together with the fact that Iowa is among the least representative states demographically, and I don’t even know why it is such a topic of conversation.

Wait until at least Super Tuesday to get realistic. My state doesn’t vote until the week after, so I’m waiting to see what happens. I’ll probably then cast my vote for whoever I think has a chance to upend the only candidate I don’t want. Never had to do that before in almost 50 years of voting. But these are desperate times.

[bluewater]

10. Iowa is what Iowa is

But I am asking people what would a disappointing performance for their preferred candidate in Iowa look like, since it's the day of the caucus and all.

They can share what positive results would be too, of course.

Thanks for responding in detail, you made many excellent points about the race in general.

[squirecam]

13. Amy won't win

But as they are releasing the “first” vote this year, I would say if she was at 5% or lower I’d be disappointed. Double digits I would be happy for, even if she was non viable.

[bluewater]

15. I believe your candidate will get some delegates tonight.

Especially in districts near Minnesota.

Good luck and thanks for responding!

[LeftTurn3623]

14. pretty easy for Pete

4th or lower he is done
3rd pretty much done
2nd I think Pete can carry on but probably not long
1st - is really what he needs to show he is a real candidate and needs the media attention that comes with the winner

[bluewater]

16. Thanks for responding!

I think a strong 2nd place finish, especially if it's to a progressive candidate, will also keep Pete in the hunt.

[squirecam]

17. Amy hit double digits

So I’m proud of her!

[bluewater]

18. She might even hit 15% when all the votes are in.

Good luck.