It appears to me the Democratic base thinks this election is a gimme and electability doesn't matter

[NewsCenter28]

They seem to be living in an alternate reality bubble, the antithesis if you will of the Fox News bubble, but outside of reality nonetheless. They have somehow convinced themselves that BS is the most electable candidate and the best suited to defeat the gravest threat Western Democrscy has faced in 75 years. Wish I could have some of the potent drugs they're smoking. Not happy about being collateral damage of theirs (extremely angry actually) though!

Bernie leads nationally and in every recent state poll other than SC

[Tiggeroshii]

1. It isnt them that convinced themselves of a fantasy

It is the center who convinced themselves that sticking to the mundane as opposed to the visionary, will somehow mobilize people against a demagogue and pathological liar.

[NewsCenter28]

3. Your candidate will usher in a Trump monarchical dynasty

Quite literally. King Donald the 1st. Will his reign be 20? 30 years?

[Tiggeroshii]

6. The last time we had somebody run on a similar vision, we won in a landslide

But dont worry, you'll come on board as soon as Bernie wins the nomination, I trust it

[betsuni]

8. Who?

[Tiggeroshii]

9. Obama was the one who said we should think bigger

He was criticized similarly for pie in the sky ideas and and was too extreme to win. Sound familiar?

[betsuni]

10. What ideas was he criticized as too pie in the sky?

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Simply the message of hope and change was considered outrageous

And fantastical. He was also the one who was outside the political mainstream and considered by many as unable to win a general election.

[betsuni]

12. "Hope and Change" considered outrageous and fantastical?

[Tiggeroshii]

13. Specifically, Clinton called it "false hope."

[betsuni]

14. In the general election?

No she didn't.

[tonedevil]

68. It wasn't that long ago...

you really don't remember.

[showblue22]

15. Obama had major support of POC

Bernie doesn't.

[Demsrule86]

36. Obama ran in the middle and was not a socialist...other than Rev. Wright...he had no issues...

Sanders had baggage and he is running to far left...we will lose 35 states and be lucky to ever get Trump out.

[mcar]

76. Progressives slammed Obama as a neoliberal, corporatist shill

Also a POSUCS. I read it all here on DU.

[Gothmog]

91. trump would easily destory a weak and un-electable candidate like sanders

In addition to the well written 101 page memorandum with oppo on sanders with a 1000 pages of backup from the Clinton campaign trump has his own oppo file on sanders that would destroy such a weak and divisive candidate like sanders. Trump had a two foot thick book of oppo research on Sanders http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044

They ignored the fact that Sanders had not yet faced a real campaign against him. Clinton was in the delicate position of dealing with a large portion of voters who treated Sanders more like the Messiah than just another candidate. She was playing the long game—attacking Sanders strongly enough to win, but gently enough to avoid alienating his supporters. Given her overwhelming support from communities of color—for example, about 70 percent of African-American voters cast their ballot for her—Clinton had a firewall that would be difficult for Sanders to breach....

So what would have happened when Sanders hit a real opponent, someone who did not care about alienating the young college voters in his base? I have seen the opposition book assembled by Republicans for Sanders, and it was brutal. The Republicans would have torn him apart. And while Sanders supporters might delude themselves into believing that they could have defended him against all of this, there is a name for politicians who play defense all the time: losers....

The Republicans had at least four other damning Sanders videos (I don’t know what they showed), and the opposition research folder was almost 2-feet thick. (The section calling him a communist with connections to Castro alone would have cost him Florida.) In other words, the belief that Sanders would have walked into the White House based on polls taken before anyone really attacked him is a delusion built on a scaffolding of political ignorance.

sanders was such a weak primary candidate that the Clinton campaign did not use its oppo but trump would have fun destroying such a weak candidate like sanders

[Blues Heron]

28. oooh scary! Nice slam!

[Gothmog]

90. triump would destroy a weak candidate candidate like sanders

Link to tweet

?s=20

[octoberlib]

2. If Bernie wins the primary ,Trump will be re-elected.

[NewsCenter28]

5. Precisely and I am so disappointed in my fellow democrats

For falling for BS's BS and lies.

[BlueMTexpat]

19. I do NOT believe that BS will "win" the homination.

But I WILL support the Democratic nominee, whoever that person is!

[Blues Heron]

29. what lottery numbers should we play next week, maybe your crystal ball can say?

[Scurrilous]

51. The OP is total bullshit. Pass it on.

[RandySF]

4. People better realize the odds are slightly in Trump's favor.

[NewsCenter28]

7. I pray that they do! I think us true dems

Need to let the interloper have IA and NH, a strategic retreat, and draw our line in the sand in NV/SC. Much like how the GOP has stopped unelectables in the FL primary in the past. Those are 2 far more representative states anyways.

[Blues Heron]

30. oooh true dems! got it. Thanks for clearing that up!

Bernie slamming smells so desperate

[Gothmog]

16. Trump is likely to win if the Democrats are not careful

Most POTUS are re-elected

[CentralMass]

17. It would appear that for many, maintaining the status quo is not good enough.

[Demsrule86]

37. If Sanders wins the nomination, you get Trump in the general...than the new status quo will be

fascism.

[MH1]

52. All the women dying due to rollback of RvW protections;

All the people choking on polluted air, or poisoned by polluted water;

The kids in cages, some dying, at the border;

The refugees dying with nowhere to go;

The U.S. military members wounded from escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and Africa;

(and many more)

just might miss a lot of what was "status quo" in 2016.

I sure do. And it is only going to get worse with the RWNJ tilt on the Supreme Court and federal judgeships all over the country,

Status quo might not be great - there's a lot I would change if I could - but going backwards at light-speed is NOT preferable.

[CentralMass]

63. If you are agreement with the author of this post that if Bernie wins the nomination he will lose to

tRunp. Then we disagree.

[Vogon_Glory]

18. Normalcy can be a winning Democratic trope, divisiveness isn't

Our best chance of winning against a hateful, erratic chief executive is a candidate who promises a return to sanity, civility, and decency. Normalcy can be a very powerful trope: just look what happened to progressive Democrats a century ago. It was used on us and we lost bigly.

Sorry, but some of Bernie’s followers’ antics don’t inspire my confidence, and while sticking it to the “old guard” may sound seductive to some (They do realize that Trump is still in the White House and that we’re facing a strong, we’ll-organized opposition next fall, I hope), it doesn’t sound that appealing to the rest of the electorate, including the electorate we need to win

[CentralMass]

22. You have an opinion. RealClearPolitics has both Biden and Sanders ahead of tRump nationally.

Joe Biden is a nice enough guy but I dont like a lot of the calls that he has made over his career at the moment in time that he made them.
That spans social issues, foreign policy decisions, and fiscal decisions.

Last June at a "ritzy" New York fundraiser Joe told a room of wealthy investors that “nothing would fundamentally change” if he is elected. I believe him. Our country is in serious trouble and that kind of thinking and decisions making is not going to fix it.

[Demsrule86]

39. You have refused to understand that this EC election...and Sanders won't take the blue wall state...

hell he is underwater in VA and DE...and it is likely we lose the house, they keep the Senate and Ginsberg can't hold on another four years. You know with all the BS that is spouted...at the root is the belief that Trump can't win...but he can...he is close to 50 %. You hate him and think everyone does so a socialism candidate can win- he calls himself a socialist, but you are wrong. This is a center left at best country and it will be a Dukakis and McGovern style election...imagine a newly emboldened Trump with no one to tell him no. Sanders will lose. I believe Joe will win the primary...most Democrats do understand the peril we face with Trump.

[Vogon_Glory]

62. +1 n/t

[Demsrule86]

74. Thanks

[CentralMass]

64. That is not correct according to RealClearPolitics. Bernie leads tRump in the blue wall states + VA.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_sanders-6989.html
Virginia Bernie 48.5 tRump 45.0

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html
Michigan: Bernie 50.5 tRmp 43.8

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_sanders-6850.html
Wisconsin: Bernie 46.7 tRump 44.7

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_sanders-6862.html
Pennsylvania: Bernie 48.0 tRump 44.3

[Demsrule86]

73. The polls in the mid west by mid west show Biden as best...Sanders will never take the blue Wall.

[CentralMass]

84. Well polling supports the case that Sanders can win there and your opinion is worth no more

then mine..

Back in 2016 Bernie beat Hillary by 13.5 points in Wisconsin. He also beat her in Michigan.

[Demsrule86]

86. We are talking about beating Trump and that he won't be able to do.

[CentralMass]

87. Neither of us has a crystal ball. The polls show both beating tRump in those states.

Polls mean nothing but Bernie is surging.
In any event I believe that Sanders can ne beat tRump in the rust belt.

[Demsrule86]

93. No one has a crystal ball, but I lived in Wisconsin and other Mid West states...and he will not win

the EC ...that is what I think...look at the midterms...moderates won...recently in 19 ...moderates won. And our chance at the senate would be gone if Sanders if the candidate-could he go down and help our candidate campaign against McSalley? ...we would be lucky to keep the house. This is what I think when I look at our Center left country and where we need the votes to come from.

[Blues Heron]

31. Lot of divisiveness coming from the anti-bernie bros today. hmmm

[Vogon_Glory]

35. What? I'm not totally agog with the wisdom and clarity of Bernie Sanders and his followers?

Heavens to Betsy!

[Demsrule86]

40. Lots of wishful thinking coming from the 'Bernie Bros today and a refusal to look at thing the way

they really are.

[Scurrilous]

47. LOL Today? It's every day. They live in the land of falsities.

[Scurrilous]

48. The OP is deliberately misrepresenting poll numbers.

They're numbers. How can you look at a number and then say it's a different number. 1 is always 1. 2 is always 2; Biden +5 nationally is always Biden +5 nationally. Not Bernie +5. Divisive. Why not comment on the lie that is the OP? Start with that. Before talking about divisive.

[BlueMTexpat]

20. Frankly, I do not

put my faith in these polls.

[Scurrilous]

50. Since the OP is making shit up you are totally right about not putting faith in it.

[randr]

21. The base knows all the real work lies ahead

It takes all of us ideologues to vet the candidates. Once that process is over the base will either be excited or not. If they feel the candidate will sincerely improve their lot and are convinced of a threat they will be the force that carries the load. Record numbers of voters is what we need.
We are few, they are many.

[Demsrule86]

41. Getting rid of Trump will not only improve our lot...it will save the Republican... I am not worried

about what happens after the election...so much depends if we take the Senate which will be hard .

[randr]

54. I am just as worried now as 4 years ago

even more so now that I know what damage can occur.

[blueinredohio]

23. Vote blue no matter who!!!

[beachbumbob]

24. I dare say sanders or warren have little chance in the electibility area in

- ohio
- Florida
- Georgia
- North Carolina
- South Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Iowa

just saying from a near 50 year viewpoint on American politics.

[Freddie]

27. 100% correct

Conor Lamb, D rep in a very red district in Western PA, said that his constituents have told him they would vote for Joe but NOT for Bernie. We need to win in places like PA where Trump won by a sliver of votes. I fear Bernie will do just the opposite.

[Blues Heron]

34. Not sure we should be catering to an isolated corner of very red western PA

that might not be our best move.

[Demsrule86]

42. We lost in rural PA last time...that is how we lost the state...they came out in droves and voted

Trump. They will never vote for Sanders.

[squirecam]

59. We must get PA back.

Lambs voters are EXACTLY who we need this election. We won’t win PA without them.

[Demsrule86]

94. Lamb has endorsed Biden...and I still think Amy is a great VP.

[Blues Heron]

32. disagree

bernie appeals to those who may have given up on the "business as usual" candidates.

[Vogon_Glory]

38. +1

[ritapria]

25. If Biden is so " "electable"

Why isn't he wiping the floor with the competition ?... Why is he drawing such poor crowds at his rallies ? ...Why does he , when challenged , keeping telling voters to support other candidates ? ..

[Blues Heron]

33. yup

lot of desperation from the anti-bern contingent.

[Demsrule86]

43. Primaries are not generals...and some refuse to face political reality...not not saying you...

just in general... and Sanders is losing to Joe at the moment.

[Scurrilous]

53. Why, why and why. Sound confused.

Last edited Sat Feb 1, 2020, 07:24 PM - Edit history (1)

[Blues Heron]

26. People have seen the "safe" candidate lose three times in the last 20 years

[Demsrule86]

44. No such thing as a safe candidate...but there is such a thing as a doomed candidate...Dukakis,

McGovern...on the right Dole.

[Scurrilous]

61. Way to ignore the election of America's first black President. Mega kudos for that omission. Mega.

Link to tweet

This guy is full of shit. Don't repeat what he says.

[Zolorp]

71. Michael Moore is the best thing that ever happened to the Republicans.

[Scurrilous]

72. He likes to keep his audience disaffected and amendable to his bullshit.

[thesquanderer]

81. re: "Way to ignore the election of America's first black President."

You're actually taking Moore's side now. Obama is an example of when we decided NOT to vote safe, and we WON.

[lapucelle]

45. I think you're mistaken about exactly who comprises the Democratic base. N/T

[Scurrilous]

46. 'Bernie leads nationally and in every recent state poll other than SC.'

Oh God, not again. Opposite. Opposite. Opposite. Let's fly in the face of what's real and do opposite. Fuck.

Show us these polls please. Please link to them. The latest national poll Bernie led in yesterday was an outlier. Of the 17 latest national polls taken, Biden was first in 16. 16! Out of 17!!! Jesus fucking Christ. He was up +7 in the one taken after that. Skipped that one did you?

Biden has always led nationally in average. Since he entered the race. Always!!! LOL He's +5 now. JfC again! Why insult us with this?

Why do people come in here and misrepresent polls when the truth is at our fingertips. Type 538. The truth is right there. Type it. No hurt, me promise.

...every recent state poll other than SC." *angrynukesangryouchy*

My reply *everyeyerollever* x *meganukes* x *infiniteouchy*

I'm not even bothering posting the real numbers to respond to such nonsense. I'm not playing whack-a-mole with opposite people anymore. Busy *facepalmingforever*.

We need to petition the admins for a 'annoyingly posting falsities about poll numbers to people who keep track of such things' alert.

Or 'doing opposite again please TS them they suck' alert.

The truth. Just click:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[NewsCenter28]

69. Wrong-Bernie is crushing it in every IA and NH poll

Joe isn't leading in any recent IA/NH poll except for 1, maybe 2. That sucks badly.

[Scurrilous]

70. '...and in every recent state poll other than SC.'

Nice disassemble. Speaking of sucks badly. Bye.

[highplainsdem]

49. Unfortunately I've seen a number of posts here saying any Democrat can beat Trump and so

they might as well choose the candidate they like best, without considering what polls show about electability.

But as far as how well Sanders is doing in the polls -- much of his support is coming from younger voters who believe he can provide them not only with free college in the future, but with complete forgiveness of all student debt, no matter how large the debt, no matter how able they are to repay it themselves. And the debt forgiveness will be tax free.

I can't recall any Democratic candidate dangling any larger carrot in front of a bloc of potential voters, ever.

Even people who can't stand Sanders otherwise might be tempted to vote for him if they think he can provide them with a 5- or 6-figure financial windfall.

[Scurrilous]

57. And - Right to free health care. Right to a job. Right to housing. Legal weed for all.

Lots and lots of carrots. So many carrots you can't list them all on the internet. Try finding a complete list. LOL

Of course he can't deliver....but that's kicked down the road.

[wyldwolf]

55. 'the base' is the wrong term to use.

The 'progressive' element of the party are not, nor have they ever been, the base of the party. The base of a party is their strongest, most reliable block of voters. That, in no way, describes the progressive left.

As Will Pitt said some back during the '04 primaries, "I hear a lot of stuff on DU about left-wing types being the base, and (the DNC) better not piss us off, or (the DNC) better court us, or (the DNC) has already pissed us off, so screw you guys, I'm going home.

I hate to break it to you, but left-wing types are not the base of the Democratic party.

Union members are the base of the party, particularly in the northeast and Pacific northwest. Women are the base of the party, particularly in the northeast, far west, and portions of the midwest. African Americans are the base of the party all across the country.

Left-wing types are the single most unreliable voter group in America. Unless you are simon-pure, you are unworthy of support from that group. As no politician in 21st Century America (with a snowball's chance of winning a national election) is simon-pure, they are not likely to bust their asses to get anti-war left-wing support.

Left-wing support, by the way, is buried by the aforementioned real base. Yes, left-wing support can swing an election, but because of the aforementioned unreliability problem -left-wing voters will bolt at the first sign of impurity, even in a tight race (See: 2000) - it is too often a hopeless exercise to try and court that group with any real vigor. The real base outnumbers left-wing types 10-1. That's where the focus goes.

So all you left-wing folks should probably stop referring to yourselves as the base of the Democratic party. Don't feel bad; I'm a left-wing type, too, and so I'm out of the fun as well. We were close to being the base, but blew up in 1968 because we couldn't stand it anymore. The party looked at us and said, "OOOOkay...let's look elsewhere."

Point?

Stop waiting for the party to court you. They won't. Either roll up your sleeves and help clean out the Aegean stables, or bolt and do exactly what the party expects you to do...which is why they don't think of you as any kind of base.

[emmaverybo]

80. Bravo.

[catbyte]

56. Here in Michigan, Biden & Sanders are essentially TIED,

Biden is ahead 50-44% for that thing and Sanders is 50%-45% for that thing, so I guess Biden is actually ahead. EVERY Democratic candidate is beating that thing here according to an EPIC-MRA of Lansing poll released January 15, 2020.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/478445-poll-trump-trails-all-2020-democratic-contenders-in-michigan

From the article:

Michigan is expected to be a chief battleground state in the presidential race after Trump defeated Clinton there by just 11,000 votes in 2016, marking the first time since 1988 that the Wolverine State voted for a Republican presidential candidate.

When voters were asked if they would definitely vote to reelect Trump or definitely vote against him if the election were today, 44 percent said they would replace him and 34 percent said they would back him. Another 19 percent said they would consider voting for someone else, and only 3 percent were undecided.

[Scurrilous]

60. No. Biden is up in both average and latest. 5.6% and 5%. He is ahead of Sanders. Not tied.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/michigan/

[totodeinhere]

66. Barely outside the statistical margin of error.

They are essentially tied. Don't fool yourself into thinking that your candidate is ahead just because that's the way you want it to be.

[TwilightZone]

78. Outside of the MOE is the very definition of "not tied".

That's how polls work.

Don't fool yourself into thinking that your candidate is tied just because that's the way you want it to be.

[Autumn]

58. You are angry that

Bernie leads nationally and in every recent state poll other than SC

?

I kind of think the person who is leading is the "most electable candidate" Why do you think that anyone who likes his message and that he understands that politicians should acknowledge their needs for a change are on drugs?

[totodeinhere]

67. The most popular candidate among the Democratic base isn't always the most electsble

in the GE. But having said that I do think that Bernie would kick Trumpster Dumster's ass. I hope it isn't wishful thinking.

[totodeinhere]

65. I don't know what to think about who is the most electable.

I would like to think that any of our candidates should be able to win an election like this. But the cynic in me tells me that's not the case. But one thing we do know. Lately the pollsters haven't had a very good track record. And polls this early on are often not very good predictors. Hello President Howard Dean. Hello President Gary Hart. Hello President Edmond Muskie. These are the same pollsters who told us that Hillary Clinton was a virtual lock and we know how that turned out. And then we have to add to the mix the very real chance that the other side will cheat and accept foreign interference in the election again. So since I really have no idea who is most electable I may as well go with my heart and support the candidate of my choice since I have no idea if he is the most electable or if someone else is.

[mcar]

75. Democratic base?

You mean women, primarily women of color? We are the Democratic party base. I haven't seen anything that suggests that we think Bernie is most electable.

[Kurt V.]

77. this election is a gimme. who the nominee hardly matters. Except for sanders.

his best quality is he's so authentic. a big positive . his worse quality is he's too extreme. a smaller negative

[thesquanderer]

82. Except for Sanders? Polls show he's second only to Biden in how well we do against Trump. n/t

[Kurt V.]

85. i think he can win. but polling biggest problem is it can't predict size and demographics

of turn out. the second being more critical for sanders than the others. imo

[DonCoquixote]

79. Electability is not a game

That is precisely why some of us do not want to go ahead and do what the conventional wisdom has been saying for the past 40 years. Do not think that we do not remember how so many people told us that there was no way we would ever vote for a black president, so of course we should of voted for the white woman president. Do not think that we forget that you told us you had everything under control in the year 2016, and yes, we know there was a lot of red ink, but that does not mean that there were not very clear mistakes in judgment in that campaign, especially for those four states that made the "blue wall" came into play and became trumps base, his new bastion of neo-Confederate ideas. Do not go ahead and call us a bunch of people who have no gauge on reality, on the contrary we have been the ones getting hit with it while so many people believe in "conventional wisdom. "We are getting tired of certain people driving our heads in the wall and then blaming us for the fact that the wall is still there

[thesquanderer]

83. re:"somehow convinced themselves that BS is the most electable candidate"

Polls show him doing better against Trump than any other candidate except Biden. By that measuerm he's only second-most electable, but still higher than Warren. We'll see if that changes over the next few weeks...

[wyldwolf]

88. the only 'gimme' election in my lifetime was... maybe... '08

And that was because Republicans had become disillusioned with their party. Had they been as rabid then as they are now about Trump, Obama wouldn't have won so easily... maybe not at all.

But we definitely wouldn't have won with Dennis Kucinich - the Sanders-style candidate - in the race.

[Gothmog]

89. Opinion: If the economy keeps its momentum, 2020 will be Trump's to lose https://

If trump does not destroy the Obama recovery, then 2020 will be a very close election. I reject the concept that we can afford to nominate a weak/far left nominee. trump will beat a far left candidate easily if the economy remains strong

Link to tweet

One wonders whether, at some point, the economic boom will be so huge that it will drive opinions on its own. Once Democrats settle on a nominee, voters will have to make a choice: Do they stick with the guy they’ve got, warts and all, who has contributed to such good times? Or are they willing to take the risk that the next president, even if he or she is a better person, will screw things up with a new agenda?

One election model from Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, suggests the economy will be the winning factor. His “time for change” model has a solid track record in predicting the outcome and direction of presidential races, and data he published last month show that, so long as the economy continues to grow at a 2 percent clip, Trump should be a favorite for reelection even if his job approval rating is as poor as it is now.

Indeed, it’s even better than that for Trump. The model calculates an average gain of 2.5 electoral votes for every one-point Trump shaves off of his net job disapproval. According to the model, even if gross domestic product growth slumps to 1 percent, Trump could win the minimum 270 electoral votes he needs for reelection by lowering his net job disapproval rating to 7 percent. Right now, that number is around 10 percent.

Media attention is focused on the Mueller report and other congressional investigations. But if the economy keeps its momentum, even that or Trump’s failure to trumpet his success might not prevent him from winning a second term.

[Recursion]

92. Remember when we thought 2004 was a gimme?

Those were the days

[Algernon Moncrieff]

95. On this day in 2016, who was perceived as more electable - Jeb Bush or Donald Trump?

Electability is a fallacy - and a trap. Whoever can do the better job of connecting with the voters, identifying their concerns, and seeming empathetic will win.

Trump tapped into the fact that a stunning percentage of white America was deeply resentful of people of color; saw that no one was addressing labor's opposition to internationalism, and (and this is the one area where I'll give him some credit) saw what a huge issue the opioid crisis was.

Trump made a lot of promises. He's partly delivered on some but has fallen woefully short on others. Most of America knows he's a crook. Most of America wants an answer to Trump, but they also have a list of problems they want solved.