Red States, Blue States, Purple States and...Beige States?

[MineralMan]

Everyone is on tenterhooks this Friday. I mean Monday is the big day, when Iowans go to their caucus meetings and mill around until they can find a candidate's group to join that represents at least 15% of the caucus-goers that that particular caucus. Some apparently feel that what happens in Iowa is crucial to the selection of the Democratic nominee for President. Well, some people are wrong about that, if that's what they feel.

It's not. Iowa sent its Electoral College members to vote for Donald Trump in 2016. Does that make it a Red State? Well, perhaps reddish. It has elected a few Democrats to other offices, so is it a Blue State? Nope. Some would call it a Purple State, for its mixed results in elections. That's not quite right, either.

Iowa is not a State of Color, really, unless you count Beige as a color. Because Iowa is overwhelmingly Beige. Demographically, it is one of the whitest states in the country. But white isn't quite the right word. Beige comes much closer. Beige is a color, too, but when it is overwhelmingly the most common color, a lot of people don't notice any color at all.

So, Iowa is a Beige state. It's also a state with a very small delegation to the Democratic Nominating Convention. Based on current estimates, it's very likely that Iowa will divide up its small delegation four ways, with nobody having anything like a majority of delegates. Like the state, the delegation will be Beige, as well...almost colorless. That means that Iowa will nave virtually no influence on who the Democratic nominee will be. What happens in the Beige State of Iowa won't really matter, come July.

So, why are we so rapt in our attention to a Beige State? And, by the way, the next state, New Hampshire, couldn't be more Beige, itself, and will have a similar lack of impact on the nomination. So, again, why do we care about Beige states? I don't. I can't imagine them mattering any less in the 2020 primary season.

[DanTex]

1. I dunno, the candidates seem to think the Iowa caucuses are pretty important.

[MineralMan]

2. Do they really? I doubt it, but they can't really not run in Iowa and NH.

Well, unless they're Mike Bloomberg, who is not on the ballot there. He doesn't seem to thing those early states are worth bothering with. Maybe he's right. He's currently moving up in the polls, without messing about in Beige states like IA and NH. Interesting, isn't it?

[DanTex]

3. Except for Bloomberg, they seem to be pouring money into it.

Maybe it's all for show. Expensive show.

[MineralMan]

6. Bloomberg would probably argue that they're wasting their money.

Since nobody is going to win overwhelmingly, I suspect he's right. The outcome will have no real impact on those who get delegates.

[Demsrule86]

10. They are important to Sanders and Warren...If Biden manages to win Iowa convincingly, they are

done. This is why he is putting some time and money into this low delegate white state...maybe it pays off maybe it doesn't but no matter what he moves on to Nevada , Carolina and super Tuesday.

[redstatebluegirl]

4. Great Post!

[eclecticdyslexic]

5. Agreed! Which is why my caucus, NV, is the first "real" vote.

Nevada's demographics are remarkably similar to those of the country writ large. And we gather on a Saturday, which makes so much more sense than a Monday.

[MineralMan]

7. That's true. NV doesn't have a large delegation at the convention either, though.

It's results, however, will reflect the general population better, for sure. However, I don't think caucuses are that good for really estimating the vote. The Minnesota caucuses in 2016 sure didn't. That's why MN switched to primaries.

[eclecticdyslexic]

8. I agree in principle that a primary is a better system.

But as someone who has always lived in a primary state and has never caucused before I have to admit I am really looking forward to the experience.

And true the delegation is pretty meager, but that'll be growing as the state grows. I'm hoping/expecting that we pick up a fifth CD after the census.

[MineralMan]

9. Enjoy your caucus experience. I have always enjoyed mine, for sure.

[squirecam]

12. You can early vote in Nevada

https://nvdems.com/early-vote/

[Demsrule86]

13. Welcome to DU and Enjoy!

[Demsrule86]

11. They do have early voting this time MM...and I am interested to see how this affects the outcome.

I believe it will hurt Sanders...

[TheRealNorth]

14. So you are arguing that we just dismiss majority-white states

Good luck with that, but that sounds like a surefire way to stoke resentment. In fact, that opens the door to the same identity politics that I believe helped us lose in 2016.

I would also like to point out that we don't do too well in states where the majority of Democratic voters are POC either.

How about "every vote counts", regardless of color. That is the message i want my candidate to run on.

[MineralMan]

15. Not at all. I'm talking about the primary campaign.

It will not be decided in Iowa or New Hampshire in any way. So, all of the hoopla and commotion is utterly wasted, because neither of those states sends enough delegates to the convention to have any effect on the selection of the Democratic nominee.

In the General election, both states send electors to the Electoral College, but also relatively few. However, at that time, their votes might well be important in determining who is President.

It's all about proportionality. Proportionally, far more money and time is spent in Iowa and New Hampshire than is warranted. That is my point, along with the states not being demographically relevant in most other states. We will learn nothing from the Iowa caucuses nor the New Hampshire primary.

[peggysue2]

16. Listened to a short piece this morning

According to the clip Jimmy Carter, a political unknown outside of Georgia at the time, had a lot to do with elevating Iowa to prominence. Carter's strategy was to light up the sky in Iowa with a massive win, and then jet propel his campaign into the political atmosphere. And it worked, shocking a lot of people, the media in particular that would later fuel Carter's success. Reportedly, Carter had a massive ground game in Iowa while the 11 other Dem candidates pretty much ignored the state. At the time, it was a new idea that setting a fire in the first state could ignite a national campaign.

Paid off for Carter in '76. Guess everyone hopes for another lightening strike.