How Bernie Sanders Broke the Democratic Primary

[OKNancy]

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/01/31/how-bernie-sanders-broke-the-democratic-primary/?fbclid=IwAR05F2Ytbq8SYl3z_eVlybq0Mjvo52GuXeEYpj4EyPKTqacrguKXcxpwrXg

There’s something insidious about making promises you can’t keep.

<snip>

By promising transformative policy changes that have virtually no chance of passing, Sanders makes his opponents’ still ambitious but much more realistic proposals appear weak by comparison. By refusing to be specific about how much his plans will cost, he avoids criticism that burdens more forthright candidates. And by sayingthat he will get his plans enacted through a political revolution that would be “unprecedented, certainly in the modern history of this country,” Sanders makes it difficultto challenge his unproven theory of change.

It’s not that Sanders doesn’t have noble motivations or the right general idea on many issues. He does. We need to significantly reduce the costs of health care and higher education. We need to raise the minimum wage and raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy. We need to lessen our adventures overseas that don’t advance American interests. Sanders deserves immense credit for shifting the Overton window on many of these issues during the 2016 campaign. But he is not having the same impact in 2020.

<snip>

Much like Donald Trump in 2016, Sanders is standing out in a crowded field by making promises he can’t keep. He’s not giving voters an honest assessment of how he will improve their lives. Like an airbrushed magazine model who makes real people look bad by setting an impossible standard of beauty, Sanders is harmfully distorting our view of other candidates by refusing to stick to reality.

<snip>

Sanders is often praised for his honesty and authenticity. But in this respect he is actively misleading voters. Most of his promises depend on Congress to keep them. There is virtually no evidence that, even if he becomes President, he will have the votes necessary to enact any, let alone all, of these ideas. Critically, that isn’t just because Republicans are standing in the way—it’s because there is not enough support among Democrats either.

[highplainsdem]

1. K&R! Great analysis.

[OKNancy]

3. I saw this on Gene Lyon's Facebook

Then read the article. I hesitated to post, but it is such a good analysis IMO.

[highplainsdem]

6. Burke's a liberal who writes for both HuffPo and Washington Monthly. No reason not to post his

analysis here.

And Gene Lyons calling people's attention to it is a strong recommendation, IMO.

I'm glad you posted it here.

[TreasonousBastard]

2. I agree wholeheartedly-- he is not talking about what he would like to do, but...

what he claims he will do.

All politicians do this to some extent, but he has taken it to a high art.

[Demsrule86]

4. Great analysis. Glad you posted.

K&R

[stonecutter357]

5. K&R

[genxlib]

7. This is one of the better analysis I have seen

Hard to argue with.

I think the alternate argument is that the aspirations inspire voters who typically don't participate. But for how long if those aspirations are unable to be enacted as described.

And that all assumes that he can be elected. The same dynamic described in the article as it regards the primary makes him a big target in the general. I fear the negative advertising campaign built around the quotes of Bernie saying he doesn't know how much these things will cost.

[NCProgressive]

8. Gullible people fall for his disingenuous strategy

[NurseJackie]

11. Exactly. Yes. Thank you.

It's a common thread that I've noticed among many.

[BlueWI]

49. You're calling 25% of Democratic voters gullible.

Diversity of opinion happens. With respect for opposing opinions we all get further in the end.

[ritapria]

9. Bernie is offering REAL solutions to very REAL problems

Bernie has said repeatedly that he can't fulfill his promises alone ...NOT ME , US ...The real work begins after Inauguration Day ...A massive grass roots army will have to be mobilized or we won't get Universal Healthcare ...We all know that ...George Washington did not win the Revolutionary War on his own ….We will nota have a political revolution just because Bernie takes up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave …….No one is being fooled …...NOT ME, US

[NCProgressive]

14. ...

[Bananaluver]

16. He should have given an example of that grassroot army getting them out there demanding witnesses

and documentation in trial. Why did he sit quietly thru the whole procedure if he has such skills with this massive grassroot uprising?

[ehrnst]

64. Yes, if he is capable of inspiring such huge numbers of people to action

Why is he not doing that now?

[Cha]

19. If so then why does the BS campaign try to smear Joe Biden?

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Attack Biden for the same thing BS did...hmmm?

Link to tweet

[myohmy2]

34. thank you...

"The real work begins after Inauguration Day"

...sounds like common sense to me...

[ehrnst]

65. ....one needs to win a primary before one can win a general...

...and there is plenty of work for a Senator to do....

...one would think....

[David__77]

41. Right. And I'm not interested in cynicism in any case.

...

[George II]

44. No he isn't.

[trueblue2007]

50. oh he is not ...just promises

and i dont believe him

[ehrnst]

63. What solutions has he implemented in his long career on Capitol Hill?

Getting affordable health care to actual people with legislation like the ACA or CHIP?

Getting actual accountability from Wall Street like with Dodd Frank?

Real advocacy for the 98% like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau?

Concrete environmental protection acheivements like the Global Marshall Plan?

Social justice protections like Violence Against Women Act of 1994?

[sheshe2]

83. ...

Brava.

[greatauntoftriplets]

68. Exactly what will this "grass-roots army" do?

Will they be armed?

[NurseJackie]

10. Great analysis. Thank you very much for sharing it. These are the exact reasons...

Sanders is often praised for his honesty and authenticity. But in this respect he is actively misleading voters. Most of his promises depend on Congress to keep them. There is virtually no evidence that, even if he becomes President, he will have the votes necessary to enact any, let alone all, of these ideas. Critically, that isn’t just because Republicans are standing in the way—it’s because there is not enough support among Democrats either.

Great analysis. Thank you very much for sharing it. These are the exact reasons that I cannot stand BS and why I'll never support him. Well, this and the open contempt and hostility and smears against Democrats and the Democratic party.

[KPN]

12. Oh brother. "promises he can't keep". That's rich. Only what every presidential candidate in my

entire lifetime has done, and especially those who won. None of them have achieved the results they ran on.

The intra-party war against economic progressives is getting ridiculously obvious.

[grantcart]

55. Yes but we have only seen this scale once before

McGovern's fantastic promises funded with a [b. 100% inheritance tax

Bernie's top 3 give aways ( Green @ 37 trillion, MFA 45 Trillion and free college @ 5 trillion)

Over a 10 year period that would be more than $ 200,000 per person or $ 20,000 per person per year.

Like McGovern Sanders reckless promises will deliver a 40 state win for Trump.

[KPN]

62. These are different times. The average American is much

less economically secure; income inequality was not the conspicuous issue nor so blatantly obvious and threatening to the well being of working/middle class as it is today; college debt and health care costs were not crippling for the tens of millions as they are today; the stark contradiction of the dual economy — Main Street vs Wall Street — did not exist in 1972; there was no palpable anger about a tax-payer funded Wall Street bail out from a near economic collapse created by Wall Street’s own malfeasance.

On the Democratic primary front, we did not have a segregationist running in opposition to the LBJ and party civil rights legacy winning primaries and splitting away Democrats throughout the south.

In 1972 we did not have a wildly unpopular, conspicuously corrupt, and blatantly self-serving monster occupying the WH. Nor did we have today’s vilified GOP. There was not the extremely galvanized resistance to the sitting President or the GOP that exists today. 1972’s resistance was primarily anti-war and aimed at both parties.

Biden is called the “safe” candidate. That’s his principal selling point. He’s our best shot, the safe candidate for winning the WH. When was the last time the safe candidate chosen by a party won? What happened to Hillary, Romney, McCain, Kerry, Gore? They were all the relative safe candidates against their GE opponent.

These are different times. 1972 and McGovern are not relevant to 2020. Nor is McGovern comparable to Sanders or Warren today. Or for that matter Yang.

[grantcart]

74. Wrong, wrong and wrong

"In 1972 we didn't have a widely unpopular, conspicuously corrupt and blatantly self serving monster occupying the WH".

You obviously didn't live through it.

Apparently you have never heard of "I am a crook Nixon"

Richard Nixon was wildly unpopular along with the war.

Demonstrations in those days were every week and would bring out a million protesters every weekend. The sound outside the WH was so deafening that they couldn't work. Former CIA operatives had been arrested breaking into the Democratic headquarters and by election day hard evidence linked them to the Committee to Re elect Nixon.

I could tell you dozens of stories about how unpopular Nixon was but how about this one. It's freezing outside the Federal building on a Saturday and we have about. 6,000 out for our MONTHLY demonstration and next to me is one of my Sunday School teachers holding a sign " Nixon is a crook". He was the head Agent for the FBI in our city. The vile against Nixon was 100 times more because of the war.

Nixon won 49 states.

McGovern came out with a bunch of unrealistic give aways that would be funded by a 100% inheritance tax. Game over.

During the Democratic primary no one attacked McGovern's give away plans because they all sound great until you look at how to pay for them.

Sender's top 3 plans (Green, "MFA" and free college) total $ 70 trillion in ten years. That amounts to $ 25,000 in taxes per person per year. There is no chance IMHO that Sanders gets the nomination because the sensible wing of the Democratic Party will coalesce against him.

Four years ago Sanders had 40% of the vote. He looks good now because the "not Berny" vote is split, but it will eventually come together. Today he looks good but at 20% he actually has half the support he had 4 years ago

If Sanders gets the nomination Trump, wildly unpopular, will get 40 states because the American people will choose the crook they hate (but know) over the crazy guy that is planning to take their money in taxes.

Equally absurd is the idea that Biden is running a "safe" campaign. His green plan is $ 1.7 trillion with net zero by 2050. Had Bernie put it out instead of the absurd $ 37 trillion nonsensical plan the progressives would have lived it. It will still be a hard sell in the GE.

I worked my guts out in 72. Watching 49 states go for a known crook that was despised left me with only one thought "ever again go with a reckless nominee".

[LonePirate]

13. If Sanders is elected President, I am very curious as to what corporate and Wall Street Dems will do

[Cha]

20. Why are you trying smear those who don't want BS

for the Nom, lonepirate.. Many don't want BS.. like the majority of POC.

[LonePirate]

22. Is that question any different than wondering what the BernieBros will do if he is not nominated?

Plenty of people don't want JB to win the nomination.

[Cha]

23. POC are Not "corp" "wall st" like you're trying to smear our

Dems with.

[LonePirate]

24. I never mentioned POC, you did. I was asking about a different group.

I have no idea if they will stick with party or if they simply will not show up to vote. I have no idea what they will do hence my query.

[Cha]

25. yes I know.. I'm saying POC on the whole do NOT want BS

to be the nom.. So you're trying to smear the Dem Party with "corp" and "wall st" is Not Woriking.

[LonePirate]

29. This may be tough for you to believe, but there are people in board rooms and Wall St who are Dems.

Yes, POC can be members of those groups; but that was not the sub-group I was inquiring about with my post. The corporate and Wall Street Dems will be most affected by Bernie's economic agenda, hence my question. People can support whoever thy want during primary season. But what will they do if the candidate they like least (or almost least) wins the nomination? It's a valid question.

[Cha]

36. Still Not working.

[Malmsy]

66. So you don't think that Democrats can be ethical if they work in the finance industry?

Or manage retirement savings plans, or 529 college savings plans, or mortgages, or life insurance policies?

I think that we can separate those who are in this industry with those who are "On Wall Street."

[LonePirate]

70. I think they will face enormous pressure from colleagues who frame it as "Their jobs" vs Bernie.

[Malmsy]

71. They should not have to. Bernie is not targeting them.

The people I'm talking about are not the 1%.

[LonePirate]

72. Since when does the truth have anything to do with how Republicans frame things?

[Me.]

39. Big Silly Question

And the answer isn't..vote for the traitor in the WH

Thank goodness it's not actually an issue

[betsuni]

21. Who are "corporate and Wall Street Dems"?

[ehrnst]

28. I think we're going to hear nothing but crickets.

When one cuts and runs, it's says so much.

[betsuni]

31. But I want to know!

Are they Democratic voters who work for corporations or financial institutions? What is it they might do? Try to prevent the revolution because Bernie's going to stop capitalism? We'll be able to tell the two sides apart when they start fighting in the streets because the revolutionaries will be wearing Bernie T-shirts while the corporate and Wall Street Dems will be in nice suits and hold large cups of Starbucks beverages. Or maybe it's elected officials who are the corporate and Wall Street Dems. Will they'll be fighting on the Nice Suit side? Maybe it's Third Way! What would THEY do? I've heard they will "stop at nothing" to prevent anything progressive happening -- although since they are Democrats that really doesn't make any sense -- so it should be exciting!

I'll be up all night wondering.

[Cha]

37. Thank you for asking that question.. you'd

think there would be an answer.

smh

[ehrnst]

27. Which Democrats would those be?

[Cha]

38. And, Thank you for asking! If someone is accusing Dems

of being "corp" and "wall st".. they can at least tell us who?

[radical noodle]

40. Uh-oh...

Could LonePirate be talking about me? I'm retired and most of my union pension money and retirement savings is held in the stock market. I guess I do have a vested interest in Wall St doing well. Does that make me a Wall St. dem?

[Cha]

43. It's hard to tell with no answers

forth coming, rad.

I know I wouldn't call you a "wall st" .. nor anyone.

[radical noodle]

46. Aw, thanks Cha!

I'm still pretty worried about what LonePirate thinks, though.

[Cha]

47. lol..

[Tweedy]

76. Senator Durbin might be able to tell you

Before Elizabeth Warren arrived on the scene, Senator Durbin was the most feared senator by financial interests.

While trying to get common sense financial legislation passed, he told us that most of the senate was owned by the banks. He didn't say republicans. He said most.

I know the high dollar democratic donors trend very liberal. Yet, money still has an insidious effect.

Most definitely, Senator Sanders needs to stop slamming the establishment-- who exactly does he mean? Himself? He has been there longer than most. The misleading videos need to stop too.

Conversely, it would be silly for us to assume that all that money rolling around in congress has not influenced some against the interests of we, the people.

[grantcart]

54. Nothing because if Sanders is the nominee we will face a McGovern style loss.

[ehrnst]

59. Crickets.....

[George II]

78. Sanders' national co-chair, Ro Khanna, would be conflicted - he has about $10 million invested....

....in Goldman Sachs mutual funds (some TAX free!) But then again, at least he'd get his $50,000 student debt (from almost 20 years ago) cancelled.

[Cha]

81. oh OUCH.. BURN!

Thank you for that!

[jalan48]

15. I'd say Citizens United broke the Party. How can the average citizen, struggling to make ends meet,

compete politically with the big corporations (like the Health Insurance Industry), the big banks and the super wealthy (the three richest Americans have the combined wealth of the bottom 50% of Americans)? Of course people are going to vote for someone who promises them that he/she will work to end this corrupt political system. Telling them we are being practical sends the message that we think things are generally OK. I'd like to hear frontrunner Joe Biden talk more about how corrupt our system has become and what he proposes to do about it and a little less about how well he can work with the Republicans.

[Amimnoch]

17. title needs the word "again" added to the end,

other than that.. rather spot on analysis imo.

[Gothmog]

18. Without a magical voter revolution, none of sanders proposals will pass

This so-called voter revolution will not work in the real world and so none of sanders; platform will ever be adopted in the real sorld

[ehrnst]

26. So many good points. Sad. (nt)

[floppyboo]

30. This makes no logical sense to me:

"Critically, that isn’t just because Republicans are standing in the way—it’s because there is not enough support among Democrats either."

If he is elected, then of course he would have enough support among Democrats. He would have a mandate according to the EC and hopefully, for a refreshing change, the popular vote. Maybe the representatives would have to remember who they are representing.

When I read stuff like this, it really makes me wonder if anyone remembers what majority rule means. Sure, the masses of people at present rarely get their policies put forward - but Sanders would change that, and the people's representatives would have a lot to answer to if they didn't at least try.

[Go Vols]

32. +1

[treestar]

57. We don't have majority rule

The Senate assures us of that to begin with. Then add the filibuster.

For a change, we need a supermajority.

[betsuni]

33. K&R

[myohmy2]

35. just another...

...hit-piece on Bernie...

" Needless to say, it is not fair or accurate to compare Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump. They are on completely different ends of the spectrum as human beings. Their priorities and ideologies could not be more different. But their campaigns share a striking similarity: Both are propelling their political rises by making promises they can’t keep. "

...so let's 'compare'

" When Trump was pressed on how he would do things no other politician could, he responded by touting his own brilliance, saying he was so much smarter and such a shrewd negotiator, that he would succeed where others failed. It’s not unlike Sanders’s standard answer that he will be able to enact his agenda through sparking an unprecedented revolution. "


...see, just another hit-piece...

...what else you got?...

[Midnightwalk]

60. They told me the revolution won't be televised

They neglected to say that’s because it wasn’t going to happen. Ive been waiting 50 years for it to show up.

That’s how this is supposed to work? An unprecedented revolution?

[Malmsy]

73. Once Bernie is in the Oval Office, that will signify that a huge number of people

are ready for his revolution.

I think that he will inspire people to act like JFK did.

[ehrnst]

69. ...if they analysis isn't flattering to Sanders, it's a "hit piece"...

...but if that's the case with a rival...

...it's a sign that 'voters are wising up....

...which makes total sense and is completely consistent and lacks bias...

...

[jcmaine72]

84. Yep. Pretty much.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

42. Steve Sack FTW, again:

[Hekate]

45. KnR. Interesting points, OKNancy...

...tho tough for some to take, I know.

[DanTex]

48. This guy should probably get over the student council election he lost in fifth grade

and stop comparing the Democratic electorate to a bunch of 10-year-olds just to get an attack in on Bernie.

[Tiggeroshii]

52. +10,000

[Cha]

77. IOW.. you don't know

[Tiggeroshii]

51. ...

They just pile on, don't they?

[betsuni]

58. Who are "They"?

[NanceGreggs]

53. "Much like Donald Trump in 2016 ..."

And there is my problem with Bernie - he is too "much like Donald Trump" in too many ways.

[Gothmog]

56. This was a bad move

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Cha]

61. +1!

[Gothmog]

75. Sanders had very poor judgment as to senior staff

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Cuthbert Allgood]

79. If we don't have the Senate and House, then nothing any Dem candidate is saying now will happen.

If we do have the Senate and the House, and Sanders is President, they better support these policies because people voted for Sanders because of them.

[Tarheel_Dem]

80. I agree with the author, the similarities are striking between the two campaigns. n/t

[musicblind]

82. Interesting take

But I believe Sanders is saying what he would like to do, and not what he will surely accomplish. I imagine his supporters know that.