Bernie Sanders's Surge Owes a Lot to Voters of Color

[Donkees]

By Giovanni Russonello
Jan. 31, 2020, 11:11 a.m. ET

Excerpt:


And with Mr. Sanders surging days before voting begins with the Iowa caucuses, an intriguing theme has emerged: Much of his momentum, polling shows, owes to the support of nonwhite voters — particularly African-American and Hispanic Democrats.

Most surveys of California voters over all now have him in a virtual tie or with an outright lead — and his support among Hispanic voters is foundational to that. A survey conducted for The Los Angeles Times by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, found Mr. Sanders with 26 percent support among likely primary voters statewide, putting him ahead of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the runner-up, with 20 percent. He had the support of 38 percent of Hispanic voters, including 41 percent of those living in households where Spanish was the dominant language.

In Texas, exit polls in 2016 found that Mr. Sanders, Vermont’s junior senator, had lost the Latino vote to Hillary Clinton by a two-to-one margin. He now enjoys a commanding lead among Hispanic primary voters there, according to a Texas Lyceum survey released this week. (In Texas’ Democratic primary, white voters are expected to make up a minority of the electorate, as they did in 2016.) The Lyceum poll showed Mr. Sanders with 36 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared with 24 percent for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and just 10 percent for Ms. Warren.

Part of Mr. Sanders’s strength among Latinos can be chalked up to the fact that the Hispanic population in the United States skews younger than the rest of the country — and Mr. Sanders continues to draw by far his strongest support from voters under 50.

“Our population is so young that most of the people are in the 40-and-under category,” Matt Barreto, a founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions, said in an interview. “So in the aggregate he is doing really well” among Hispanic voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/us/politics/latest-democratic-polls.html

[brooklynite]

1. What surge is that?

[bluewater]

4. Bernie's surge in RCP POlls National Aggregate perhaps?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

That blue line looks, well, kinda surge-like, don't cha think?

[Demsrule86]

7. No, it doesn't.

[bluewater]

8. Yes it does, actually.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

The polls are what the polls are.

[brooklynite]

15. I look the THE ECONOMIST model, and no it doesn't...

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[bluewater]

19. The model showing Biden declining and Sanders gaining substantially?

But I guess that Bloomberg, currently, has the "surge-iest" line in that model, with Sanders's gains coming in second.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[brooklynite]

22. No, model showing Biden pretty much where he was nine months ago...

...and Sanders rising but not "substantially".

[bluewater]

23. Looking at the last two months, Biden declines, Sanders gains substantially.

Biden a slow but steady decline, Sanders gaining substantially in the last two months or so.

Honestly, at this point, I think people can see that for themselves.

Thanks for pointing out this model showing this clear trend.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[bluewater]

5. And Bernie's surge in RCP Polls IOWA aggregate, perhaps?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Facts are stubborn things.

The polls are what the polls are.

[ritapria]

9. There is a Bernie surge going on

He has a 6 point lead in Iowa, according to American Research Group ...ARG did not undersample young voters , like so many other pollsters have done ..I checked out their sample and it is in near perfect accord with what actually happened in the 2016 Iowa Democratic Caucus (NBC Iowa Entrance Polls) ...The Big News is that Klobuchar is now up to 16% - just 1% behind Biden ….

[OneMoreCupOfCoffee]

2. Surge?

[Uncle Joe]

3. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread Donkees.

[Demsrule86]

6. No it doesn't and there is no surge...no matter how many times people pretend there is.

[bluewater]

10. So RCP Polls is lying to us?

And our eyes are lying to us?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

That blue line for Sanders sure looks like a surge.

[brooklynite]

16. No it doesn't...

It looks like he's rising...and still not close to Biden. Add to which he's still at half or less of his 2016 support.

[bluewater]

20. So you say Sanders is "rising"? Seems so, and substantially too.

OK.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Seems like a substantial rise. Some might be warranted in, dare I say it, calling it a "surge".

The polls are what the polls are.

[brooklynite]

21. Yes...just not "surging!!!!!"

[bluewater]

24. Good thing people actually get to vote, eh? lol

One man's "rise" is another man's "surge"...

But as Monty Python says, lets not bicker and argue about who killed who...

lol

Real voting starts soon and then we shall all see which pollsters called this race the most accurately.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Right!! Ntl poll avg

One month ago Sanders 19.3
Today 21.9

One month ago Biden 29.5
Today 30.2

[redqueen]

12. Some Hispanic and Latino people are black. nt

[emmaverybo]

18. Does not change the fact that Bernie did not cultivate relationships with AA communities and

leaders, has been almost solely focused on his idée fixe, a socialist-inspired economic revolution as remedy to all that ails us, and thus faces an uphill battle to gain needed AA electorate support.

[MineralMan]

14. Beige is a color. Maybe that's the color you're talking about.

Beige Voters for Sanders!

[Thekaspervote]

17. Yes!! That's it..

l