Two new GE polls both have Biden doing better than Sanders against Trump

[highplainsdem]

First, today's IBD/TIPP poll, which also has Biden leading Sanders by 7 points (26-19) in the primary section of the poll:

https://www.investors.com/politics/joe-biden-leads-bernie-sanders-but-trump-pulls-even-ibd-tipp/

In their polling of Democratic candidates against Trump:

Biden +1
Bloomberg +1
Sanders -2
Buttigieg -3
Warren -4



A new USC Dornsife/LA Times poll also did GE polling as well as primary polling. The primary polling found Biden leading Sanders by 16 points, 34-18.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-31/joe-biden-holds-lead-in-national-poll-is-it-a-firewall-against-iowa-new-hampshire-losses

In the polling of Democratic candidates against Trump:

Biden +9
Sanders +7
Warren +4
Buttigieg +3
Klobuchar +2


We can add these to the vast array of GE polls showing Biden doing better than the rest of the field, including Sanders, against Trump.

[Tiggeroshii]

1. "Should we take these early GE polls seriously?"

"!@#$ no."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/

[bluewater]

2. but but but people only agree with 538 when they like what 538 says...

[highplainsdem]

3. What the polls show at this point is the comparative strength of the Democratic candidates.

And they almost always show Biden doing better than Sanders.

And no, they don't predict the final outcome next November. I'd be surprised if it isn't a close race, and I'm skeptical of polls showing several Democratic candidates beating Trump.

But these GE polls reflect Biden having the edge over the rest of the Democratic field, including Sanders, when voters are asked for whom they'd vote.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. If that were actually the case, then why were Obama's numbers so weak against McCain around this

time in 08? Even though he won in a landslide.

[Downtown Hound]

7. Given that when you look at the averages of all polls for the last 4 presidenital elections,

and they have come within 2 to 3 points of the eventual election result each time (and sometimes closer), I would say the answer to your question is a resounding YES.

You should believe them.

Kerry vs Bush 2004:
Polling average: Bush +1.5%
Final result: Bush +2.4%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html


Obama vs McCain 2008:
Polling average: Obama +7.6%
Final result: Obama +7.3%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


Obama vs Romney 2012:
Polling Average: Obama +0.7%
Final result: Obama +3.9%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html


Clinton vs Trump 2012:
Polling average: Clinton +3.2%
Final result: Clinton +2.1%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html



Polling has gotten very good at predicting outcomes. Ignore it at your own risk.

[Tiggeroshii]

8. Those avgs are based on an aggregate of later polling only

Later polls are obviously more accurate. Early polling lacks relevance to the onslaught of propaganda and news cycles that effect the race.

[Downtown Hound]

10. True, but the point is, polling works.

It may only be a snapshot in time, but it's usually an accurate snapshot in time.

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Agreed.

The snapshot in time thing is specifically why super early polling isn't quite accurate to measure a candidate's probability to win, though.

[Downtown Hound]

12. In this highly polarized environment

The needle is unlikely to move all that much. Most people have made up their minds about Trump, which is why his approval hasn't budged more than a few points up or down for most of his presidency.

I personally believe either Sanders or Biden could beat Trump in November, I just think Joe has a better chance in reclaiming the blue firewall in the Midwest, so I'm sticking with him. Sanders could probably do it, I'm just more confident about Joe.

Out real enemy is the electoral college, not the popular vote. And all the data I've seens says Joe has a better shot at it than Sanders does.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. I understand your position but respectfully disagree.

One way or the other, we'll win: I'm pretty sure of it.

[Cha]

15. If BS were ahead would you "take them seriously"?

[Thekaspervote]

4. Thx highplainsdem... more good numbers for the front runner!

[flamingdem]

6. And this is why Trump is desperate

Go Joe!

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. K&R