Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIowa Really Is a Toss Up
Iowa Really Is a Toss Up
January 28, 2020 at 9:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2020/01/28/iowa-really-is-a-toss-up/
"SNIP......
[link:https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-28/democratic-presidential-race-iowa-and-some-other-things-to-watch-k5xvczz0|
Jonathan Bernstein]: The FiveThirtyEight averagehas Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden tied for first (Sanders has a 0.1% advantage). But the most important point made by the FiveThirtyEight analysts is over at their projection page: Joe Biden is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in Iowa. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 44% of the vote. Plug in Sanders, and the same results come back. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have similar, although slightly lower, ranges. In other words, its plausible that those four candidates could finish in any order at all. It also wouldnt be surprising if one or two of them finish below Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, although she could also finish below several of the others if she winds up at the bottom of her likely range.
The FiveThirtyEight model is telling us something important. When there are lots of candidates, and lots of voters who like most or all of them, the history is clear: Large swings from the polls to the final results are possible in Iowa, even in the final week.
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primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NoMoreRepugs
(9,451 posts)to how I think about Democratic candidates??
Personally, Ive never seen a football game decided by what happens with the first play of the game.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Inundating the television until monday
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided