Given his large leads in a slew of early state polling, is it too early to declare Sanders nominee?

[NewsCenter28]

As much as it pains me to say it, if the latest polling is accurate, and for the purposes of this post, let’s assume it is, Bernie is practically the presumptive nominee isn’t he?

[MrsCoffee]

1. Roflmao.

[Scurrilous]

15. From 24 hours

Alabama - Latest Biden +21% No Average Yet

Florida - Average Biden +18.6% Latest Biden +26%

Georgia - Average Biden +18.9% Latest Biden +19%

Mississippi - Latest Biden +26% No Average Yet

No. Carolina - Average Biden +14.6% Latest Biden +13%

So. Carolina - Average Biden +20.9% Latest Biden +21%

Tennessee (why not) - Latest Biden +15% No Average Yet

Virginia - Average Biden +14.1% Latest Biden +14%

I've seen people doing this on Twitter. Saying opposite.


From the OP -

"Chris Cilliza, a prominent CNN expert, agrees with me. If Bernie wins BOTH IA and NH, it's game over and lights out. That is the most likely outcome at this point if you look at the polls (Bernie has massive leads in IA and NH) and that scares the absolute shit out of me."


Concern...doing concern.

[Amishman]

21. Great collection of polls

There are a lot more states in play super Tuesday, many of them with demographics favorable for Biden's support profile. We aren't discussing them much.

[Scurrilous]

24. Right.

Lets focus on 40 delegate Iowa.

[Mister Ed]

2. Are you serious?

Yes, it's too early to declare a nominee. Jeez. At this point in 2004, Howard Dean was presumed to be the eventual Democratic nominee.

[NewsCenter28]

4. I am off to bed but a post before I go. yes I am deadly serious

Howard Dean was already collapsing a week out from Iowa. I remember that well. Bernie is surging.

How can I be serious? Well, even Chris Cilliza, a prominent CNN expert, agrees with me. If Bernie wins BOTH IA and NH, it's game over and lights out. That is the most likely outcome at this point if you look at the polls (Bernie has massive leads in IA and NH) and that scares the absolute shit out of me.

Show me more than 1 poll out of IA that doesn't show a massive (or small) Bernie lead and maybe then I'll settle down.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. I think if he wins the first 3 states handily and majority of super tuesday delegates

It might be safe to say hes got this. But anything before super tuesday is probably too early to call anything

[Scurrilous]

17. Sanders Surge!!!!!!

Iowa - Biden projected winner.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

[Tiggeroshii]

3. Uhh nope.

The whole winning the actual states first is kinda important. Just a little. Now if he is ahead by 50 or more delegates after super tuesday, it might be safe to say he'll pull it off.

[TexasTowelie]

7. .

[Demsrule86]

8. Kidding right?

New polls do nothave him ahead.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. I think the post said early states.

He is projected winning NV, NH and is completely tied in IA -even though he is slightly ahead in poll averages -according to 538.

[Gothmog]

10. I doubt that danders will be the nominee in the real world

I will support the nominee of the party but I doubt that sanders will be the nominee. There are far too many real democrats with good memories who will not forgive or forget

[samnsara]

11. dear gawd yes

[NCProgressive]

12. Bernie ain't coming anywhere near the nomination

let alone the presidency

[wyldwolf]

13. were you active here in 2016?

same story then. We saw how that worked out.

Sanders will have to win 3 out of the first 4 contests to make the OP's claim even remotely true.

[Scurrilous]

14. We know how to find polls you know.

[Scurrilous]

16. Why don't you want black people to vote?

You want to 'call it' after two tiny white states? You want to call it after 82 delegates are selected? When you need 1900 for nomination?

[lark]

18. Nope.

If he's ahead after Super Tuesday, he's the presumptive leader, but I don't think that will be true. I think he will definitely be in the top 4, but not the leader. Once the larger, more diverse states vote, he will not be the leader, IMO. I think that will probably be Biden (who I plan to vote for in the primary) or perhaps Bloomberg (whom I am NOT keen on) as the leaders and it will be a slog to the finish with Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg still having significant support. I'd be surprised if this is 100% settled until June.

[katmondoo]

19. NO he is not!

[MineralMan]

20. LOL!

[oasis]

22. In a word, "no". In two words "hell no".

[floppyboo]

23. It is certainly NOT time to tell others to 'go pound sand'. Sheesh!

This was very saddening the last go around. It has the effect of a) shutting down discourse on issues b) hardening the 'no-vote' majority.

While I am thrilled, as you can imagine, there are so many moving parts here. An impeachment trial, Amy surging, Bloomberg surging, a very likely brokered convention.

At least this time the media isn't crowing about super delegates this early on. Small mercies!

[Skya Rhen]

25. When he secures the majority of black voters, in all of the polls, then this could be a reasonable

proposition. Until then, no.

[bearsfootball516]

26. I honestly can't tell if the OP is trolling or not.

[chillfactor]

27. yes.....

sanders will never get the nomination.

[booley]

28. Pretty sure Bernie would still want people to vote

Since he has worked so hard to get people to vote.

[eclecticdyslexic]

29. As the third state to go, Feb. 22, NV seems to currently prefer Biden -- RCP: has him plus-6-ish

Had you forgotten about us here in NV? We are much much much more representative of what America looks like demographically than either Iowa or NH.

Also, doesn't Biden poll quite well in the next state, SC, as well as many of the Super Tuesday states?

I, of course, will be caucusing for Senator Warren.

[LanternWaste]

30. I get it... the process is making candidates look bad, and you want a way to side-step that.

Our Democratic nominee is declared via the mechanisms of the primary en toto rather than the wishful thinking of a post lacking objective evidence to support (any of) it.

I believe we should at all costs, avoid the comic-book civic lesson you imply should determine the course of our actions and focus on the actual methods and process of governance.



So no... it's six months too early to declare anyone the formal nominee. And pretending the polls will hold as-is until the formal date of the convention is absurd (at best).

[CentralMass]

31. This is why we have a primary.

[NewsCenter28]

32. Let me elaborate on my thinking

What I am saying is that it looks like Bernie is going to win both IA and NH. If he does, history suggests that he will be very hard to beat. The polls in the Super Tuesday states don't matter because they will change if Bernie wins both IA and NH. NV seems like a firewall like SC but I worry if both IA and NH go to Sanders handily, then NV will fall, and then even SC comes into play. Sweeping both IA and NH is a very dangerous proposition that would likely get him the nomination. It's the object in motion will keep rolling theory. It is crucial to stop him in either IA or NH.

Why is the above considered so outlandish?

[CentralMass]

33. I follow and like/agree with your thinking. However I am.concerned that election aren't normal

these days. I would want to see how the party and press handle a scenario like that. Bernie does not appear to be a favorite of either.