538 - Election Update: What Are The Chances Of A Brokered Convention?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

A brokered convention is not a likely occurrence, exactly. But it’s not unlikely, either. It’s roughly as likely as the Tennessee Titans beating the Baltimore Ravens earlier this month, or Donald Trump winning the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. According to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, there’s a 15 percent chance that no Democrat wins a majority of pledged delegates:

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So does that mean we’d be headed to a BrOkErEd CoNvEnTiOn — the first brokered convention of the modern primary era, which began in 1972?

Well, not necessarily. It’s time for a little bit of a detour into a brokered convention explainer. (As a bonus, there is a Venn diagram coming.)

What is a brokered convention, exactly? And is it the same as a contested convention?

First, consider the rather precise phrasing that our model uses. It forecasts the chance that a candidate wins “more than half of pledged delegates.” To be more exact, it forecasts the chance a candidate wins a majority of pledged delegates as of the end of the day on June 6, when the last state or territory (the Virgin Islands) votes.

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-are-the-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/

[Kurt V.]

1. i trust vegas odds more than 538. i'll check it.

[bearsfootball516]

2. It seems like the "brokered convention" fears happen every 4 years

And it never actually happens. I don’t expect it to this time either.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

5. Super Tuesday is basically designed to minimize the odds of an open convention

The theory being that a front runner rises, and the deal gets closed.

I think there is a higher than normal chance this year - may be the highest since '68. There are some weird politics dynamics. Also, not to be morbid - but considering today's tragic non-political events combined with considering the advanced ages of all the front runners in both parties - the unexpected could throw this into chaos.

[left-of-center2012]

3. "a 15 percent chance"

Yeah, I'd say that's unlikely.

Adlai Stevenson (of the 1952 Democratic Party) and Dwight Eisenhower (of the 1952 Republican Party) are the most recent "brokered convention" presidential nominees of their respective parties.

That was 68 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

[Wolf Frankula]

4. We hear that every four years

"The Democrats will have a brokered convention." And it hasn't happened in 68 years. It's just journalistic hope.

Wolf