538: Biden projected to win the democratic nomination

[Thekaspervote]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Go Joe ..steady as ever!!

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. K&R

[NYMinute]

2. K&R Go Joe!!

[Cha]

3. Wow.. already!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

4. In all honesty, this is both scary and discouraging.

Not a single primary or caucus has been held, and I guess we can all just quietly go home.

Please not I am officially undecided.

[safeinOhio]

12. That be me too.

I will support who ever wins bigly.

I would suggest that he not insult any other Dem and move a little more to the left and he can seal the deal. But, please go after tRump hard and often.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

14. I will vote for the nominee.

I have very strong opinions about who I think should be our nominee, even with my official undecided status.

Some of the possible nominees worry me a great deal.

[MineralMan]

23. Those projections are based on polling.

There has been a lot of polling already. While making predictions based on small samples of potential voters is not a precision tool, taken in aggregate, polls are generally accurate enough for people to draw some conclusions from them.

In the case of choosing a party's nominee for President, the key factor is the number of delegates a candidate will have pledged at the convention. That's a different matter, altogether, from who comes out on top in Iowa. Iowa has a small delegation and that delegation is not anywhere nearly large enough to have much influence on the nomination.

National polling can provide some additional reference points for those who make such predictions, but only state by state polling, translated into delegate allocations from each state make any sense when making such predictions.

For people who predict such things, numbers are the only things that matter. Predictions are not based on preferences for particular candidates. They are simply extrapolations of poll numbers in advance of primary elections and caucuses.

You should vote for the primary candidate you prefer. So should everyone. Once the primaries and caucuses have all been held, it will be clear who the nominee will be. Until then, unknown factors can come into play.

[safeinOhio]

24. I'm still undecided.

Looking for the candidate that would get the most votes against tRump. So many different groups are in the equation. Age, gender, education, motivation to get to the polls, geography(Electoral College) and other.

My donations will all go to Democratic candidates in close elections for congress. I sure would fell safer with both houses Blue, even if he does get re-elected.

[MineralMan]

25. Nothing wrong with that. Don't let anyone tell you there is, either.

You appear to be a pragmatist, for whom winning against Trump is the primary goal. That's a good goal. We share that goal. I think I know who has the best chance to win against Trump, in the face of possible attempts to manipulate the election. So, that's who I'm supporting in the primary season.

[safeinOhio]

26. Joe looks the best to me right now.

Hope, if he does win he picks Harris as a running mate and move a little more to the left.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

5. I knew it

Although I wish someone younger would take the nomination. I hope Biden chooses Klobuchar or Warren as his running mate. Klobuchar would be the best bet as I think there’s Dem governor that can appoint a dem in her place, maybe Franken (only in my dreams).

[Skittles]

6. yup

it is disappointing

[AlexSFCA]

7. I think Amy would be brilliant

she is extremely likable and a good choice to win over midwest.

[Thekaspervote]

8. I cannot totally disagree

I really like Amy. Wished Beto’s campaign would have caught fire.. I still think he has a great future, same with Harris and Booker, but not as much.

For me, I want rid of the squatter in the WH. That’s not the only reason I am behind Joe, FP, civil rights issues, his ability to...for the most part stay focused and not be rattled by all the noise, single payer health care. My list is quite long.. I will leave it there

[safeinOhio]

13. Speaking of Harris,

she would make a great VP.

[PatSeg]

18. Yes she would be an excellent choice

I'm thinking Harris or Stacey Abrams. I am 100% sure Biden will pick a woman running mate and there is a good chance it will be a woman of color. There are so many good candidates to choose from.

[LakeArenal]

27. I'm confused as why people insist that Joe will pick a losing primary candidate...

When there are great people like Abrams and Porter out there.

I don’t want any of the primary candidates as VP.

I like Amy a lot. And replacing her with Franken is a dream. But I don’t see it happening.

[PatSeg]

29. I'm leaning more toward Abrams

but Harris could be a good match. Obama chose a losing primary candidate and it worked out well for him. That said, Abrams was really an effective speaker on the campaign trail.

I like Amy as well, but I think a more diverse ticket would be more inspiring.

[LakeArenal]

30. I agree to all but ...

Think Harris would be better AG

But I am biased and have never liked Harris. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t want her in the Administration.

[PatSeg]

31. Oh yes

Harris would be an excellent AG. My feelings about her are rather mixed. I was impressed with her during hearings, but her attack on Biden during the debates left a bad taste that hasn't gone away. I'm really tired of that kind of politics.

[LakeArenal]

33. Honestly, I'm not over Franken

Then what you said
Also not much on the prosecutorial style.

I’m way more Perry Mason than Hamilton Burger.

(Forgive my arcane reference)

[PatSeg]

35. I know

I'll never get over Franken. Such a decent person and a great liberal voice, that was truly an ugly moment for Democrats. I hate that kind of politics. I expect it from republicans, but it is so disappointing when I see it from Democrats. At least it backfired on Gillibrand, who essentially was already running for president.

Had to look up Hamilton Burger. I didn't remember the name of the DA. I guess it depends on the situation. Right now, I'm rooting for some prosecutors!

[LakeArenal]

36. True that.

But I’m really talking a prosecutorial style.
That I don’t think Schiff quite fits in what I think of as that.

But hey, it’s all opinion and you know what they say about opinions.

Nice to chat with you as always.

[PatSeg]

37. Yeah, Schiff is like

a heroic prosecutor in a movie or Law & Order. He is really pretty special and we are lucky to have him.

Nice to talking with you as well!

[King_Klonopin]

9. Their off! The horses are approaching the first corner and...

the winner is Biden!

Happens every election. Finish line is the convention, not Jan 26th.

[Thekaspervote]

10. It's as stated a projection, but an extremely fine tuned one

[Sherman A1]

11. Yup

This is all part of The "Horse Race" narrative that we get to "experience" through each of these things. Time will tell.

[DanTex]

19. Yup. Actually, the finish line is next November, which is the real issue.

[Gothmog]

15. This makes me smile

[madville]

16. So we may see a second round of voting at the convention

And the super delegates become involved if this holds true. Pretty much makes it lock for Biden at that point. We all know Bernie has no path to the nomination, his supporters will of course have a meltdown but that’s always expected.

[Scurrilous]

17. But I heard Sanders was surging...

Don't see it the graphs though. Go Joe.

[Iamaartist]

20. Way To Go....Go Joe,,,,,

[LakeArenal]

34. There was also the invisible slump Joe was supposedly in.

[totodeinhere]

21. If I read that article correctly it is saying that Biden has less than a fifty-fifty chance

but he has the best chance. So I'm not sure if that's the same as saying that he is projected to win. Yes, if I were a Biden supporter I would be pleased with this result but I would also be well aware that it's far from over. Lets wait and see how we stand going into Super Tuesday. I think there's a good chance that by then that we will have much more clarity.

[thesquanderer]

22. Right, Biden has a less than 50/50 chance, so the link actually says he's NOT projected to win.

Rather, it says he has a better chance than anyone else. Still, he's more likely to lose than win. (If by "win" we mean have enough delegates to capture the nomination on a first ballot. Ifit goes beyond a first ballot, there are no polling figures that can project that.)

[Quixote1818]

32. Biden 2 in 5 and Sanders 1 in 4 nt