The electability question.

[DanTex]

I've said previously, to me what matters most, by far, is electability. On issues, I'd prefer Bernie or Warren, but that counts almost nothing to me because all I really want is a win. But who is that candidate?

On paper, should be Biden. Polls best against Trump, centrist who won't scare off moderates, "likable", huge credentials. So what's the worry? Well, one worry is 2016. In a world without 2016, I'd say Biden is the clear choice. But 2016 happened, and Biden feels a bit like a Hillary 2.0. And Hillary was polling way ahead of Trump at this point also. Also, pretty much all the pundits now saying only Biden can win, in 2016 were convinced that Trump wouldn't get the nomination and then that Hillary would beat him. But she didn't (well she did, but...).

What's different now? Some things, but not that much. Biden hasn't been subjected to two decades of GOP smears, that's true. But even with that, Hillary was polling in the 60s for favorability before the race. And Biden is definitely establishment, which means he will be accused of corruption and swamp-dealing in the same way Hillary was. Without evidence, but still, the email thing was as content-free as the Hunter Biden thing.

Besides Biden, the ones with a real chance are Bernie and Warren. On policy, they are pretty close. That means lots of progressive stuff. The usual people warn that this will scare away centrists. Will it? A lot of their policies actually poll really well, even though the pundits are mostly dismissive. I am worried about single payer though. It might be a good idea, but it actually does replace everyone's private insurance with medicare, and most people like their private insurance (I know, a lot of people don't, but still).

In non-policy ways Bernie and Warren are different. Bernie has the anti-establishment thing, for sure. And a lot of surprises have shown that this is bigger than pundits thought. Not just Trump, but also Brexit (I know different country), and even the fact that Bernie has done as well as he did, and that now half of the Democratic field is running on his 2016 platform. But then there's the socialism thing, which isn't entirely gone despite what people say. And also Bernie said a lot of crazy shit in the 70s that is definitely going to come up in Trump ads.

And Warren? She's kind of like a Biden running on Bernie's platform. I sense she would probably be harder to attack than either. On one hand she doesn't call herself a socialist but on the other she's not really the "insider" that Biden is. But the flip side is I don't think she has the ability to inspire the same non-traditional anti-establishment turnout that Bernie is going for. I can't help but think that the Bernie-on-policy, Biden-in-persona thing sort of has it backwards. As in, going left on policy can alienate centrists, but without also being anti-establishment, you don't then pick up the disaffected.

Anyway, I'm still undecided. But those are my thoughts. I'd like to hear what other people think.

[redstatebluegirl]

1. Bernie will be destroyed in ads, that is why the GOP keep talking about him.

They won't pull out the big guns until he is the nominee and they will skewer him. Elizabeth would be a little better, but they will do the same to her. Anyone they can paint with the "socialist" brush will find it impossible to win where they need to win. I love Elizabeth by the way, I think she has some amazing ideas and unlike Bernie she has plans to pay for them. I've never seen Bernie say how he will pay for anything or how he will get it passed. Elizabeth is easy to like, she is not an angry white guy.

That, to me leaves Joe Biden, he is a seasoned public servant, he has foreign policy experience and will be someone the rust belt voters can relate to.

In a perfect world someone like Elizabeth could win, we don't live in that world. There are to many people easily swayed by negative ads. It is not about her gender, it is about socialism and how that can be used against a candidate. They already have the ads done and ready to roll against she or Bernie.

[redqueen]

2. Are you in an early state?

If not then a lot may change between now and when you vote.

I wouldn't worry too much about M4A. There is no way that's getting through Congress, Dem control or not. I wish it was that easy but given the size of the country and the intricacies that will need to be addressed - it's just not going to happen in one fell swoop.

I don't think any of our candidates will have an easy time beating Trump. And I agree with you re: Hillary 2.0.

I think Yang has the best chance of beating Trump. As I've said before, he is an outsider on whom the GOP doesn't have a giant trove of political baggage ready to be crafted into attack ads and soundbytes. He's also extremely likeable and - again, as I've said before - a lot of low information voters out there tend to go with their gut. His policies appeal to people all over the political spectrum as well.

I like all our candidates, I would trust any of them in charge. Like you, my main concern is beating Trump by a big enough margin that they cannot steal it. Again.

[DanTex]

3. Late state, it could well be over by the time I vote.

I'm not worried about M4A as an actual policy, and you're right, it's not going to pass even if I was. I am worried about M4A as part of a platform because of the ads that can be run against it.

I do like Yang. I have some criticisms of some things he says, but whatever, I have criticisms of everyone. But I just don't think he's got much chance.

Maybe I'm wrong though.

[redqueen]

4. Ugh yes, attack ads.

Wouldn't it be ironic if one of the M4A candidates got the nod and then during the move to the center in the GE started softening the message (we understand the need to compromise, this will take years to implement after much discussion with our friends across the aisle etc) and then the true believers who got them the nomination freaked out and didn't vote? That would suck.

[abqtommy]

5. I remember that in 2016 Hillary won the popular vote by a count of 3 million and was only

denied the presidency via the Electoral College due to corruption and ratfuckery. That's a good indicator of how the polling was going, but in 2020 don't discount corruption and ratfuckery being a big influence no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

[judeling]

6. The Real measure is down ballot

Every one can beat Trump, even if in slightly different ways.

Bernie would win, our core base will turn up and he will bring some more youth and some working men back. That would be enough.
But no chance at the Senate and the House would be in jeopardy. By November there will be so much economic anxiety in the suburbs that a lot of the House gains will be in doubt.

Warren would win, more of our base will turn out and our hold on the suburbs will be a bit steadier. There will be a lot of economic anxiety but tempered by both her gender and manner. It does nothing for the Senate and perhaps depresses the chances depending on how much candidates run away from her. Same with the house so we may see a smaller majority.

Biden would win, our base will turn out, some additional independent leaning Republicans and Independents also. The anxiety will be muted Nobody will be running against him down ballot. But it is a relief turnout we may get the Senate and keeping the House is pretty well assured.

Buttigieg would win, our base will turn out with some additional independent leaning Republicans and Independents. I expect he would do about as well as Biden. (But I have to be honest. The more I see him the less I am on favor of him. It isn't dislike, it is just something, I know several others who feel the same, I just cannot tell if what I feel will do anything for his real chances. Of all of the candidates I do not feel I can make even a close to a honest assessment.

Klobuchar would win, one of the main reasons I support her. She gets everything Biden does but adds 2 or 3% in Rural America. While that may only be a blip nationally in some very important states it will be enough to get the Senate. I actually think she will win bigger then that but this is an analysis based on demographics and measured support for the candidates in those and the depth of support they show.

Bloomberg would win, but the AA vote will be depressed and I haven't run a full model for him yet.

I think Yang could win or lose. The problem is UBI has not really been run through the wringer yet and it is to central to his campaign.