The "Youth Vote" is a wild card this year, with Climate Change now a burning issue

[Tom Rinaldo]

I know from personal experience how much the Draft and the Vietnam War fueled youth activism in the late 60's. But the voting age was 21 back then. so while I was on the streets I was never in a voting booth.

Conventional wisdom about the traditionally depressed levels of youth voting compared to other age group blocks may get upended in 2020. Climate change is becoming personal for younger people today in a way that the Vietnam War was for young people in the 60's. It wouldn't take fully closing the gap between voting rates for those over 60 compared to those below 30 to significantly alter the overall voter profile in 2020 compared to prior presidential election years. Just a major uptick in youth voter turnout can potentially swing the outcome in numerous states this time. With enough enthusiasm generated for Democrats, that may well be within reach. And right now no one is generating more youth enthusiasm than Bernie Sanders.

[OKNancy]

1. I also remember the draft and "youth" activism

I remember arguing in my Jacksonian America history class in college with some SDS guys. They were talking about their hate for Johnson and going to Chicago. And look what that activism got us. Nixon!
Foolish youth IMO.

Thank God my husband was able to stay in the US during his time in the Army from 1971-74

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. Bobby was assasinated that Summer. That changed history

A lot of young people over 21 were planning to vote for him and many below that age were actively campaigning for him. To a lot of people at the time it seemed like the electoral door had been slammed shut I can still hear Graham Nash singing "Won't you please come to Chicago..." , literally. I still have the album.

I am glad for both of you that your husband was fortunate at the time with his assignment. I drew the number 350 in the draft lottery, or I would have gone to Canada. That was really fortunate.

[OKNancy]

16. Husband joined up so he could be in medical services

He said he wasn't going to kill anyone. Our protests then were going to our very liberal Presbyterian church and doing candle light singing and listen to Peace Corps lectures. LOL
I actually did flirt with SDS before I got married, but they were not interested in girl's opinions. Pretty much chauvinist pigs lol

[beastie boy]

2. Any data to show how climate change as a voting issue resonates among different age groups?

I am not necessarily buying the notion that climate change is predominantly a youth issue.

[Iliyah]

4. It is not . . .

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. There's more widespread fervor about this among younger voters

in terms of hard core activism, and it helps to have peers pressing peers to vote. Clearly climate change motivates voters of every age group, it motivates me. But the long time consequences of unchecked climate change will fall heaviest on those who are young today. And they know it.

[beastie boy]

10. This deduction is not unreasonable. I was wondering how accurate it is.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. I understand. It's a good question

I took the liberty of using the discussion board to present what I guess they call in social science circles "a hypothesis". I don't have hard data. maybe someone else will chime in with some.

[MH1]

18. Isn't there more "hard core activism" among younger voters anyway?

Activism drops off as people age because they get new responsibilities that take up all their time. I see some dedicated people who manage to juggle it all and continue be activists even with kids, jobs, soccer practice, and so forth ... but not very many.

Most people I know my age, who went to decent high schools where they learned anything, understand and care about climate change. On the other hand if they are struggling to pay bills or find a job even, it is not the first thing on their mind, and probably not their top issue to vote on.

[PatrickforO]

9. If we don't do something aggressive about climate change and

reducing carbon emissions, the children of my grandchildren will face a world hostile to human life, and where millions have already perished. 97% of scientists are on this page, and 70% of Americans think the government should have a role in it.

You know this. Here's a link that may interest you. Does not address age bands, but does address the concerns of POC.

http://www.theclimatechat.org/americans-on-climate-change

This link talks about the concerns of kids. https://bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/climate-change-poll-americans?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1. Here's an excerpt:

The Post-Kaiser poll, for example, shows that American teenagers and young adults are particularly worried about the future of climate change, with 56 percent saying climate change makes them afraid, and about 70 percent believing that climate change will "cause a moderate or great deal of harm to people in their generation,"

Still, The Post-Kaiser poll showed that, like adults, many young Americans don't quite understand what's causing climate change or how to fix it. What's more, only about 1 in 4 young Americans say they've taken action on global warming, through, for example, recycling, reducing time in cars and using less plastic.

So not much out there. But my fear is if we run Biden it will alleviate the concerns of those who think we'll lose the election with a progressive platform, but we will fail to galvanize the youth vote. My son is 34 and I discussed this with him last week. He's pretty 'woke' politically, and does speak quite a bit with others in his generation.

He wants the government to address climate change, cut military spending and raise taxes to reduce the deficit and check the rapid growth of the national debt. (He has a degree in finance, so this does make sense). He has NO enthusiasm for Biden whatsoever. None. And, he told me that the people in his generation with whom he interacts have NO enthusiasm for Biden.

Now, he's not a right-winger - he is a registered Democrat and does vote. Oh, he'll vote for Biden, he says, but only to get rid of Trump, and he wondered aloud with me whether the rest of the people in his generation would come out for Biden. Because, he says, if Trump wins again, there may be revolution.

So there's what I hear - and yes, I know it is hearsay, but nonetheless, what we very well may see in November is two septuagenarian white men facing off in the presidential election. I'm 61 and I'm not even enthused about that. Sorry, but that is true. I will support Biden if he's the nominee, but in my opinion his support may be quite a bit weaker that we think come the general election - oh, the Democratic party structure supports him, but that structure, like any bureaucracy, is conservative in the sense of self-survival. It isn't inclined, I don't think, to throw the dice on a progressive candidate, though intuitively I suspect that is exactly what we need - a bold message and some real plans to move forward on stuff.

Just one last thought - a hard question actually - for BOTH Bernie and Biden. And that is this: If you both have been in elected office so long, and claim you can 'get things done,' then why are things so much worse now than they were 20 years ago?

A legitimate question we could also ask of Warren, to be fair, though she hasn't been in the Senate as long. And Booker (I was sad when he got out because I could have enthusiastically supported him, as well). But Warren is my candidate because of her policy positions, which are bold. Remember a leader sets the vision. What happens, of course, is progress toward that vision, but we must all be aware Congress is coequal with any president we elect so Warren's broad, sweeping agenda will all be subject to vigorous debate and compromise.

That is what these fearful people - the ones afraid of us running a bold progressive - won't tell you. Neither Warren nor Sanders will 'get their way' necessarily. They will have to work hard with Congress - people representing Americans throughout the nation - to get their proposals through. But that does not mean they should back away from those bold visions, because bold visions are how you WIN elections.

So, that's what I see, believe and have heard. Take it for what it is worth. I will support Biden of course, if he is the nominee. Absolutely. But he is not my first choice by a long shot.

[beastie boy]

11. The OP was about hte youth vote and how climate change may affect their votes in '20.

I am not disputing anything you've posted. I just asked for data. I asked for it because I am doubtful of the conclusions in the OP, not because I have a Biden picture under my post.

[redstatebluegirl]

3. Registering them is not enough we have to get them to the polls.

In 2016 they registered and they threw a hissy fit when their candidate didn't get the nomination and stayed home or voted for Jill S. Talk about voting against your interests. I am about your age, and I can say that I don't think BS is the only answer to the youth vote. If the only thing they care about is free tuition we have a serious issue.

[brooklynite]

5. The "youth vote" didn't materialize in 2018 (except in some safe Blue House districts)

...and it didn't materialize in 2016 when Sanders was running for President. What makes you think it'll happen now?

[BlueIdaho]

7. Not just 2018...

I was a college professor for 31 years. I made a series of impassioned speeches that students could change their world if only they voted. I informed them how to register. I even offered bonus points if they brought an “I Voted” sticker to class. I never cared who they voted for - only that they voted.

Over the years the response never rose above about 3%.

I hope this changes, but sadly, the youth vote has been disappointing for decades.

[Thekaspervote]

15. Yup!

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. It did materialize in 2018, but true, not at the level that I think it can in 2020

Critical mass. I think it has been building to this The emergence of the Green New Deal movement on a large level didn't happen until after the 2018 elections. Australia is burning, Greta Thunberg is Time's Person of the Year...

[BlueIdaho]

19. We need to work to make that come true... nt.

[Thekaspervote]

14. Agree!! They have a bazillion reasons, different every time for not voting!!

So, no I don’t agree with the OP.

[karynnj]

17. I hope you are right that climate change will motivate voters, but if that were so Inslee

would still be in contention. He had stronger better credentials than any other candidate because he had actually worked on this in Washington state. In fact, Inslee was one of the governors who joined "We're still in" that Bloomberg also supported. Economic inequality is the number one Sanders issue, not climate change.

I know that Sunrise endorsed Bernie Sanders - and as in 2016 - when Bill Mckibben endorsed Bernie at his announcement, he has his endorsement this year. However, both those endorsements are more because of compatible ideology. However, Biden has the endorsement of John Kerry, the man who has done more to fight climate change than anyone else - possibly including Al Gore. As to Biden's own work, he worked on climate change decades ago when it actually was a bipartisan issue. He chaired a 2007 hearing in the SFRC that was the first hearing on the national security threat that climate change posed. He was not as committed to this issue as Gore or Kerry, but he beast most other politicians.

However, the GOOD thing is that every single candidate has said they will make fighting climate change an issue. All have said they will rejoin the Paris Accord. All have said they would reinstate all the Obama executive orders related to this. All have also said that they want to do more. The argument between them remind me of the 2008 arguments on things like the mandate - where all agreed that every one needs health insurance.

As to energy, I think there is some likelihood that it will be a voting issue this year. However, I think that will be true no matter who the Democratic nominee is. One new resource that combines the young activists - like Sunrise - is the John Kerry led World War Zero that includes both activists, strongly praising them and making the case that they are needed for change, with people who have worked on legislation etc. It also includes people like Dr Moniz and other scientists. I suspect they will redouble their efforts once their is a de facto nominee.

What I would like to hear is- as John Kerry suggested - how the President and experts would personally meet with leaders and scientists from sectors of the economy that need to change their carbon footprint and engage them to identify roadblocks and to identify potential ways to move forward identifying what the President could do. A president cheerleading this would be a 180 degree change from Trump working hard to make things worse. The good thing is that I could see almost all our nominees - though in different ways - doing this.

[Tom Rinaldo]

20. Point taken about Inslee, but that was very early in the electoral cycle

It's conceded that younger potential voters tend not to avidly follow and participate in electoral politics. Inslee was regrettably eliminated during a stage of the presidential primary cycle when traditionally only relative political junkies are tuned in, tracking and/or participating. The closer we get to election the more Americans, youth included, tune in to the presidential race.

I agree with you about the good news that unlike 2016, when it was barely touched on during debates, fighting climate change is high on all of our candidates agendas. The point of my OP was not to address whether or not Bernie Sanders has the best program to fight climate change, that is a topic for a different discussion. All of our candidates are, to slightly varying extents, good on the issue. My main point was that I see reason to be hopeful that any of our Democratic candidates will benefit from higher levels of youth vote turnout in 2020 than we have previously seen, perhaps much higher levels. As to Bernie Sanders specifically, to use a crass term, he for various reasons benefits from "brand name" recognition with younger voters. One can argue whether he "deserves" the amount of enthusiasm and support he receives from younger voters, but the fact remains that he receives it. If Democrats nominate a candidate for President that younger voters are already enthusiastic about, that for obvious reasons will help generate youth voting turnout.

John Kerry continues to do excellent work in regards to the environment, as with other issue. World War Zero is an important initiative that can make a critical contribution to fighting climate change. And yes, the fight will take on a much more powerful and focused turn one year from now if a Democratic President who is willing to lead on this issue is inaugurated.