Five Thirty Eight POLLING AVERAGES JAN 23

[George II]

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

1. Ha...so the Sander's surge once again is kind of underwhelming. K&R

Thanks!

[comradebillyboy]

2. Surge is the most overused word in 2020.

[Demsrule86]

7. Yes indeed...and at the end of the day...when voter walk into the voting booth, I think they will

vote for person who can beat Trump which polls show most believe is Biden.

[LakeArenal]

27. As is Slump.

[Tiggeroshii]

3. So Biden going from 15 point leads to 6.2 is a GOOD thing for him?

[Demsrule86]

6. Sanders need to win convincingly in Iowa...Biden doesn't. And Sanders isn't doing that by all

measures.

[getagrip_already]

13. Win or not, it won't matter for sanders...

In 2016, with just 2 candidates in the race, he only managed a slim 4 delegate lead leaving nh.

That lead disappeared as quickly as it arrived, and it was never seen again. All the hand wringing over super delegates was garbage. He had a huge deficit in the pledged vote.

In this cycle, there are 4-5 strong candidates. The vote will be split multiple ways, and coming out of nh with even a 4 delegate advantage will be remote.

Iowa and NH mean nothing once SC and super tuesday are over. Now you can argue that if bernie doesn't win either one, he will lose support quickly, and that might be true. But he doesn't have enough support even if that doesn't happen.

His supporters are good people, vocal and well organized, but the numbers aren't there. And they aren't growing.

[Demsrule86]

18. I absolutely agree...a blowout would make him temporarily...viable but he hits a

wall when we move to more diverse states.

[LakeArenal]

28. I disagree with some. But yes...

[Sloumeau]

9. If Biden wins Iowa, Bernie is toast. Chew on that for a minute. :) eom

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Not if Bernie's gain nationally is sustained.

[Demsrule86]

19. He has nowhere to rack up a delegate count.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. His gain is continuous. It hasn't stopped. He was -9 last week now -6.2.

At this rate he will be ahead nationally in most polls by the Iowa Primary. Bookmark it.


Or dont, cause honestly who the hell really knows?

[Demsrule86]

22. That is really not true.

[Tiggeroshii]

23. ?

If you are speaking of my speculation then I agree until it comes true or false. But the narrower national lead is absolutely right.

[Demsrule86]

24. There is no evidence he is leading in any substantial way nationally...he hits the South and the

Mid West, diverse areas...he loses...won't even get delegates in some states.

[Tiggeroshii]

25. Agreed. But that is not what I said.

He is simply shrinking Bidens national lead in half every few weeks.

[Demsrule86]

37. Biden has had the same range of lead for months...he and Warren trade voters.

[Tiggeroshii]

38. I dont think that's true.

He hasn't been as bad as +6.2 since he barely entered the race in April.

[Demsrule86]

40. We shall see...but Sanders is up since Warren was pretty much screwed over by Sanders

during the debate...his number are up a bit maybe. However...6 out of 9 polls show Biden ahead...

[Tiggeroshii]

41. National Polls in late December

Harvard-Harris 12/27 - 12/29 756 RV 30 17 12 7 7 2 3 2 1 -- 1 Biden +13
Economist/YouGov 12/28 - 12/31 548 RV 29 19 18 3 8 4 3 2 3 0 0 Biden +10
The Hill/HarrisX 12/27 - 12/28 431 RV 28 16 11 11 6 2 2 2 2 0 2 Biden +12
Morning Consult 12/23 - 12/29 17787 RV 32 21 14 6 8 3 4 3 1 1 1 Biden +11
Economist/YouGov 12/22 - 12/24 586 LV 30 17 19 4 7 5 3 1 2 0 1 Biden +11
Morning Consult 12/20 - 12/22 7178 RV 31 21 15 6 9 3 5 3 2 1 1 Biden +10

Avg is +11.16.

Avg now is +6.7. Biden's lead has shrunk by nearly 5 points in just a few weeks. If this trend continues, it isn't good for him.

[boomer_wv]

43. That's a big IF

Its actually the exact same thing we heard about Warren a while back. Her "trendline" meant she was going to pass Biden easily. It never happened. She plateaued and then fell.

Given that nothing has happened to set off some surge. I expect that this is just tightening of the race in the run up to the caucus.

[Demsrule86]

39. Within the margin of error.

[LanternWaste]

11. In a state Sanders has to convincingly command? Yes... great news.

Objectively measured, his anemic 'suRGes' are less surge, and more anemia.

But then again, I merely have a preferred candidate rather than a sacred cow whose missteps I have to rationalize as perfection.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Nationally, actually

[onetexan]

36. umm...more like a weak wind, not a surge by any means

Joe still rules at the TOP!!

[aikoaiko]

4. Biden is still leading. Now with 8.5% nationally when I clicked the 538 link ETA: 6.2%, not 8.5%

His support among those polled is so steady.

It is fascinating that Sanders has been trending up and Warren trending down ever since the debate kerfuffle.

[Demsrule86]

5. She got hit in that one..course the idea that they would share votes and maybe have a

brokered convention is dead. Too bad...And a fair number of her supporters won't support Sander when she bows out.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Nope. Still 6.2. You must be looking at Ohio?

[aikoaiko]

16. Oops. Sorry. You're right.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. No worries!

[Sloumeau]

8. We'll be generous, Bernie. We'll let you have New Hampshire. :) eom

[George II]

30. Even at that he'll only get three or four more delegates than Biden.

[highplainsdem]

10. Thanks! K&R!

[George II]

21. For perspective, Biden hasn't risen above 28.6% since June 30 or below 25.6% since July 27...

That a change of a mere 3.0 over six months. On the other hand, with this latest seeming outlier in New Hampshire today, Sanders has poked his head above 20% (20.4%) for the first time since April 23.

Further, Biden was +6.2% vs. Sanders on April 27. Today Biden is +6.2% vs. Sanders on January 23.

This is the WHOLE picture, not a snapshot of just one or two days. This latest "surge" is only regaining lost ground, it's nothing revolutionary.

[Tiggeroshii]

26. These are very good points.

I just dont think the race really took off until well after April and Bidens entrance into the race was firm. You call it regaining lost ground, I call it a surge from May/June numbers. In the end of the day neither of us is wrong... or am I?

[LakeArenal]

29. Always the same characters panning good news for Joe

CONSISTENTLY the leader because he’s most qualified both nationally and globally.

In addition, well liked by the world.

[Sloumeau]

31. I don't mind when people pan the good news for Joe.

I love the smell of desperation in the morning.

[LakeArenal]

33. Yeah, but then there is the same ole same ole factor...

I’m in that place now. Time to tag team in some new characters. Starting not to read past the first pan on the thread.

[MineralMan]

32. Wow! Sanders is SURGING in NH.

Joe Biden's is just holding everywhere else though. That's clear. He's on his way down now, for sure!

[Politicub]

34. Biden is doing very well

If the polls are a reflection of how the public will vote, he will coast to the nomination.

[Cha]

35. KR!

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. K&R