The First Post-Debate Polls Are In! And They're ... Pretty Weird 😎🎨🦩

[Iamaartist]

The first handful of polling since Tuesday night’s debate is out. But it doesn’t tell a terribly consistent story. Pretty much whichever Democrat you’re rooting for, you can find some polls to be happy about and others that you’d rather ignore. Here’s a quick list of those polls:
SurveyUSA has a new national poll that shows Joe Biden leading with 32 percent of the vote, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent and both Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg at 9 percent. As compared with their previous national poll in November, Biden is up 2 percentage points, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 1, Buttigieg is down 2, and Bloomberg is up 6.
SurveyUSA also published a new California poll, which has Biden leading there at 30 percent, with Sanders and Warren tied for second at 20 percent and Buttgieg in fourth at 8 percent. Biden and Sanders are both up 2 percentage points since their November California poll, when California senator Kamala Harris was still in the running, while Warren has gained 7 points since polling at 13 percent in November.
While SurveyUSA has seemingly good news for Biden, an Ipsos national poll for Reuters does not. Instead, it has Sanders ahead nationally at 20 percent, followed by Biden at 19, Warren at 12, Bloomberg at 9, and Buttigieg at 6. As compared with the Ipsos/Reuters national poll conducted roughly a week before the debate, Sanders is unchanged, but Biden is down 4 percentage points and Warren is down 3 points.
I should also mention the Ipsos poll conducted with FiveThirtyEight, which surveyed a single group of voters both before and after the debate. It did not include a traditional horse-race question (i.e., “Who is your first choice?”) so it doesn’t figure directly into our polling averages or primary model. However, it showed strong results for Warren, with her making gains on favorability, perceived electability, and the number of Democrats who said they were considering voting for her.
Finally, an Emerson College poll of New Hampshire, conducted partially since the debate, has Sanders ahead there with 23 percent of the vote, followed by Buttigieg at 18 percent, Biden and Warren each at 14 percent, and Amy Klobuchar at 10 percent. As compared with Emerson’s previous poll of New Hampshire, in November, Sanders is actually down 3 points and Buttigieg is down 4 points, while Biden and Warren are unchanged and Klobuchar is up 8 points.





In the meantime, our topline forecast is largely unchanged. Biden remains the most likely candidate to win the majority of pledged delegates, with a 41 percent chance, followed by Sanders at 23 percent, Warren at 12 percent and Buttigieg at 9 percent. There is also a 15 percent chance no one wins a majority, a chance that could increase if Bloomberg, who has now almost caught Buttigieg in our national polling average, continues to rise.

read here.....

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-first-post-debate-polls-are-in-and-theyre-pretty-weird/





Go Joe.....all about pledged delegates....my opinion

[Thekaspervote]

1. Indeed it is all about pledged delegates!!

[Iamaartist]

3. Some just dont understand ....

[CousinIT]

2. Heard on MSNBC that GOP wants Sanders and/or Warren and are attacking Biden because....

....they believe Biden will be the biggest threat to Turdy McBoneSpurs - esp in states Turdy McBoneSpurs won in 2016.

Don't know what the evidence is for that ie: stats or whatever but...Turdy McBoneSpurs is getting impeached for trying to gin up dirt on Biden...no one else (that we know of), so there's that.

[Iamaartist]

5. Agree..more likely there running scared...

[judeling]

4. This is expected

As the race is much more fluid then anyone thinks.
You see the turnout model of each polling outfit reflected in the results.

This has made Iowa even more important and probably is not good news for Biden.
By all accounts he has the weakest organization in Iowa, and the shallowest depth of support (measured as firm first choice). He is very likely to underperform in relation to his polling.