538: Biden within 1 point of Sanders in IA & NH, 3 points ahead in NV, 21 ahead in SC

[highplainsdem]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-iowa-caucuses-are-in-17-days-whats-going-on-in-the-early-states/


And keep in mind that IA and NH combined have 82 delegates (according to Ballotpedia), and Biden and Sanders are so close there they'd be picking up almost equal numbers of delegates.

Nevada has 48 delegates, and Biden should have a slight advantage.

South Carolina has 63 delegates, and with Biden's lead, it's possible none of his rivals will reach 15% there.

[George II]

1. Sanders up 0.6 in IA, 1.1 in NH, -3.1 in NV, and -20.7 in SC.

[NurseJackie]

4. The states that are less diversity in their ethnic demographics benefit BS...

The states that are less diversity in their ethnic demographics benefit BS as we can see. Here's the thing, though, once you get to more diverse states (ie: states that aren't like Vermont and New Hampshire) it's easy to see how the BS campaign is struggling and how his "prosperity gospel" is being rejected by AA and POC voters.

BS will not be our party's nominee.

[still_one]

2. Because Iowa is a caucus state I believe it is the less predictable. I do agree with with the OPs

assessment though, both Iowa and NH will not designate a winner because most likely the delegates will be split

Super Tuesday is a different situation because of the number of red and purple states, and I suspect will demonstrate why Sanders would be a very poor choice as a nominee

[DownriverDem]

3. Guess why?

Folks know that Biden can win enough states to beat trump. trump does not want to run against Biden. Biden running with a strong progressive Dem woman would be a winning ticket.

[emmaverybo]

9. A strong woman who compliments Joe and is on his same page hopefully AND a WOC. Biden's

agenda, not AOC’s, Warren’s, or Bernie’s is what Dem voters will have signaled they want if they make Biden the nominee. His is a liberal agenda, doable, sound, particularly good on education, health, climate change, and foreign policy.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. 3 in nevada? That is definitely down from a consisten double digit lead.

And if he does actually lose IA and NH, he will no longer be the front runner until after SC, which will likely hurt him in the runup to SC and benefit the frontrunner. All of this points to bad news bears for Biden.

[karynnj]

11. Consider that in 2016, Bernie nearly tied in Iowa and had a landslide victory in NH

THAT did not lead to the other states falling in line for Sanders. In fact, after only Iowa and NH, he could have been called the frontrunner, but no one really thought he was.

A week ago, I would have said that the main boast to Sanders would be if Iowa and NH show Warren getting much less support. The thought is that that might cause Warren supporters to migrate to Bernie. I think that might not happen. ( In fact, if Warren people in Iowa areas where she is not viable go to Biden, Buttigieg or (if she is viable in that district) Klobuchar, Sanders may do less well than you are expecting.

Given that the 4 candidates are bunched up getting between 15 and 20 percent, all or most of them will have some districts where they are not viable. I would suspect that none of the other candidates, other than Klobuchar will be viable anywhere. That means that there will be more people moving because there candidate is not viable than happened in 2016 or even 2008. The fact that many delegates to the state convention are based on local caucuses may lead to results that do not look like statewide totals. In 2008, the reason that Edwards came in second was his strength in rural areas - he did after all spend much of 2 plus years in Iowa.

[booley]

6. Didn't Biden used to be ahead by Double Digits?

The argument for Biden keeps coming down to no one is really excited over Biden, people aren't really excited over any of his policies, he keeps saying really silly things.. but he's electable because he's still slightly ahead in the polls.

You know after the primary we have to d a General. Saying Biden can get the votes of people who will vote Democrat anyway in a state we all know will go for Trump is less than encouraging. Especially when comparing him to the guy you all said was going to be gone long before the first Iowan voted.

[jalan48]

7. South Carolina has only voted for one Democratic President since 1960 (Carter in 1980). There's

no way we win it in 2020.

[kstewart33]

8. Great news.

People want someone who can beat Trump and he's the guy who can do it.

[totodeinhere]

10. I'm actually surprised that it's that close in Nevada.

I thought I heard that Joe was thought to be way ahead in Nevada. But having caucuses will help Bernie I think since his supporters are usually very motivated and might be more likely to attend a caucus. (Nothing against Biden supporters.)