Every data point suggests that Amy Klobuchar won't be viable in the Iowa Caucus...

[brooklynite]

Over the past year, Klobuchar hasn't hit the 15% viability threshold at any time, and has hit double-digits (10%) only once. Add to which, her Debate performance this week doesn't appear to have changed the dynamics for her, and she'll now be stuck in Washington for the last weeks of the campaign period.

Her Caucus voters will have three choices after the first round of voting: go home, join another candidate group, or join with other supporters of non-viable campaigns (Yang/Steyer/Bennet/Gabbard).

My guess is that, broadly speaking, 60% will go to Biden and 25% will go to Buttegieg, and 15% will go to Warren (as the last remaining viable woman).

[Sloumeau]

1. What about Senator Bernie Sanders? You don't think he will get any? eom

[brooklynite]

2. I'm sure a marginal amount will go to every viable candidate, but...

...Klobuchar's appeal has been to voters looking for a moderate alternative to Biden and/or a woman candidate. I don't see what appeal Sanders has to that group.

[dsc]

3. Her support isn't evenly distributed I would assume

she is from Minnesota so I assume she has more support up north and less down south.

[brooklynite]

4. Yes, but I'm not sure that will translate to enough strength, even in those districts.

[judeling]

15. her support is possibly too evenly divided

She has been doing party and candidate fundraisers across Iowa and the Midwest for over a decade since she joined the Senate.
That doesn't count all the Farm Bureau and Camber of Commerce events she has done from her position as a member of those committees.

She may have hit all 99 counties in Iowa this cycle but she has probably visited all them several time before.

[getagrip_already]

5. the caucus rules are a nightmare.....

To be viable in a precinct, a candidate could need as little as 15% of present voters to a max of 25%.

Anyone standing in a group considered non-viable has a short period to shuffle to another group or leave.

There is NO absentee, remote, or proxy voting permitted. You have to physically appear, and remain for the entire duration of the process.

But based only on polling, it's entirely possible bernie and biden could both get the same number of delegates, probably around 12-15 each, and the remainder would split among the remaining candidates.

But that probably won't happen. The polls aren't accurate because even if someone "intends and plans" to vote, bad weather or other issues could keep a lot of them away, notably elderly and those who have to travel a ways to their caucus sites. That will hurt biden more than the other candidates.

But in any case, there are only 54 delegates up for grabs. They are proportionately awarded; not winner take all. Out of about 5400. NH isn't much different.

Roughly 10% of available delegates will be awarded on super tuesday.

In short, Iowa doesn't amount to much, unless you need an early win because you know you won't do well on super tuesday.

[brooklynite]

7. "even if someone "intends and plans" to vote, bad weather or other issues could..."

THAT is why ground game is so critical. A campaign needs a team to cajole people to show up no matter the circumstances, and to stay there for both rounds of voting. Based on what I've seen, Warren has the best ground operation, while Buttigieg is a close second. This is due in part to having large pools of available funds, which is another comparative weakness for Klobuchar.

[getagrip_already]

9. yes, very important, but...

They can't drive them to the polling place unless they themselves are going to that location.

You have to have local boots, you can't rely on people from the cities helping rural people get to their sites because they have to vote themselves.

So the pools of volunteers become very limited. It's not like an election where you can help with absentee ballot information, getting people to polls, and monitoring the process.

It's a very undemocratic system not everyone who is eligible can vote, even when they want to.

[femmedem]

14. Those really are nightmare rules.

Back in 2008, my father was able to vote early in Florida. Between the time that he voted and election day he suffered cardiac arrest and was in an induced coma for a week and a half. When he woke up, he wasn't able to speak but he laboriously spelled letters into my mother's hand. First he asked what happened. Then he asked where he was. Then he asked who won. Mom eventually figured out he was asking who won the presidential election. "Obama," she told him. He weakly raised his arm and made a power fist.

Voting meant so much to him.

I hate that caucus rules disenfranchise people like my dad, people who don't have transportation, people who are ill or hospitalized.

(Now please excuse me while I spend a few minutes missing my dad, who died a year and a half ago.)

[The Valley Below]

17. Your story brought a tear to my eye.

I know what it is like to be blessed with a father like that and how much it hurts to lose them.

[femmedem]

31. Thank you. I'm sorry you lost your father as well.

[The Valley Below]

32. Yeah, I had a "talk with my dad" today while I drove. I told him how much I appreciated him and

how much I missed him. A one-sided conversation, but he knew how much he was loved in life.

Almost 7 years. Still hard.

Peace to you.

[judeling]

6. With Pete's steady decline it doesn't look like he will be viable by Iowa

Since November Buttigieg's poll numbers have started to drop and that appears to be accelerating. Add to Which his Debate performance doesn't appear to have done anything to arrest that trend, and he'll now be seen as taking unfair advantage while the others are off doing their constitutional duty in the last weeks of the campaign period.

His Caucus voters will have three choices after the first round of voting: go home, join another candidate group, or join with other supporters of non-viable campaigns (Yang/Steyer/Bennet/Gabbard).

My guess is that, broadly speaking, based on the fact that Biden has benefitted little with the Buttigieg decline, 50% will go to Klobuchar and 25% will go back to Warren, and 25% will go to Biden (as the other remaining viable moderate).

[brooklynite]

8. Pete's national numbers are down, but not in Iowa...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html#polls

...and in a close race, it again boils down to ground organization.

[judeling]

10. He has dropped

9 points between the last two Seltzer polls and 5 points in the Monmouth. Even his avg has dropped 5% in a month. He is in real danger of falling below 15%.

The problem Pete has is almost by definition the Moderate lane just doesn't generate the passion that the Progressive lane does so the base of support is just much more fickle. That is just as true for Biden and Klobuchar of course.

The trend is not his friend. Unlike Warren or Harris there is no policy real or perceived misstep that can be attributed to his decline. There is nothing he has done that can be pointed to other then familiarity.

[karynnj]

11. If you look at past caucuses, it is not always the "progressive" that does better getting people out

In 2000, Bradley was the progressive relative to Dole - I think he underperformed polls.
In 2004, Dean, a very centrist moderate VT governor was labeled progressive by Joe Trippi, and although expected to win lost to John Kerry by 20 points.
In 2008, HRC was not expected to win and she didn't - the surprise is that she came in third. (This one fits your thesis)
In 2016, going into the caucuses, polls showed Bernie and HRC close -- and they both got their people out with HRC winning a virtual tie.

Other than the ability of the candidate to sell him or herself, the capability of the local campaign is probably the most important.

[judeling]

13. It wasn't a comment specificly on Iowa

and Fickle but more of a general one. Indeed you have to go back to 2004 to even get the first data of any real consequence.
What is more Dean was not in particular liberal but it wasn't even what happened in that it was more that everyone else suffered and Dean just didn't do as well collectively as the movement went to Kerry and Edwards and not to Dean.

And it isn't even the last polls that need to be looked ate but the trends and those did point away from Gephardt.

[StevieM]

23. I think you meant to say that in 2000 Bradley was the progressive relative to Gore.

You wrote "relative to Dole."

[madville]

12. Klobuchar is going to be Biden's VP pick

Amy makes the most sense to be first choice for VP.

[totodeinhere]

16. Possibly, but that would leave a person of color off the ticket.

The ticket would have gender diversity and of course that is a plus. But I think that if there is a swing state that Biden needed more he might go elsewhere looking for a candidate who would best help him win the election. Klobuchar is from Minnesota of course and he might not need her to win that state. But if he picked a VP from Texas that might help him win the large number of electors from that state that might just be enough to put him over the top in the election. And that of course is the ultimate goal when picking a VP.

This is why I am thinking of Julio Castro. He is from Texas, he is young, and he is a person of color, and his being on the ticket might help Joe win the election.

[TexasTowelie]

18. The thing is that Castro only has a following in the San Antonio area.

He doesn't even do well in the cities south of San Antonio or the Rio Grande Valley. While he doesn't add diversity to the ticket, O'Rourke is far more popular in Texas than Castro.

BTW, it's Julián instead of Julio (the character on Sanford & Son). Beto speaks Spanish, Julián not so much.

[spooky3]

30. I like Castro. But two things are wrong with your analysis.

First, there has never been a woman VP or President. There has been a person of color as President. Especially given that women are >50% of the population, a lot of voters see that as a great injustice that needs to have been corrected yesterday.

Second, women are a much greater % of the voting population than are Hispanic Americans, African Americans, or any other group. To the extent that voters favor people they perceive to be in their own demographic group (and we know that many do NOT weigh this factor heavily) choosing a female candidate has the potential to appeal to far more potential voters.

I am NOT a fan of playing the "which group has it worst?" or "let's pit one underrepresented or marginalized group against another" game, but when you seem to promote including a person of color over a person from a gender who has NEVER been represented in the roles of Pres or VP, that is troubling.

[squirecam]

33. Yes

she does.

[RhodeIslandOne]

19. Thanks for your concern.

[brooklynite]

20. I'm not concerned at all...

I doing political analysis. I understand that sometimes happens on political blogs.

Feel free to join in! How is Klobuchar going to become viable?

[judeling]

22. Well that is actually very easy

Come in third or better in Iowa.

She just went from 2% to 10% in that last NH Emerson poll (Buttigieg dropped 4%). She is ahead of Pete in the latest FL. poll also.

I don't think people understand just how strong her potential Iowa support actually is and just how really good he organization is there.

I also don't think people understand just how weak Buttigieg's underlying support is and how much Mayor Bloomberg is hurting Mayor Pete.

If Biden had shown some increasing support or Buttigieg had at least stabilized his trend I would be a lot less optimistic about her chances. But that hasn't happened. So I expect that Buttigieg will drop below 15% and Biden will not benefit much so at caucus night the choice will be between Klobuchar and Buttigieg in second round at Klobuchar will gain the most.

[brooklynite]

25. My thinking is actually based on being in Iowa..

Warren (whom I'm not supporting) has the best ground operation there; second is Buttigieg. They both have the resources to put people in place. I didn't see the same network behind Klobuchar.

[judeling]

27. Best measured by offices and staff

But Klobuchar has a professional organization there that is pretty close and she has built her organization around locals and local state representatives. In addition she has a neighboring state to draw from for field troops.

Wait until people get ahold of Peggy Flanagan (Minnesota LT Governor). With her stuck in Washington she will flood Iowa with surrogates that are already familiar to Iowan's.

[brooklynite]

28. If Klobuchar does well, I won't complain...but I'm still not seeing it.

[judeling]

29. I always bet on longshots

We don't have that long to wait however.

[The Valley Below]

21. I love Klobuchar, hope she does well, and would like to see her on the ticket.

[lees1975]

24. According to 538, Sanders has a slight lead in Iowa

followed closely by Buttigieg, Biden and Warren, all within the margin of error. Klobuchar is gaining.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

[MontanaFarmer]

26. If Biden gets 60% per the OP (a bit low in my opinion)

Of Amy's supporters where she doesn't reach 15%, he'll win the state IMO. As another poster said, the delegates in Iowa don't amount to much, but the storyline does. The story has been, Biden struggles in Iowa. Imagine if he wins it . A major opportunity lost for Pete, for Bernie, for Warren in a state they all need demographically. If Biden wins Iowa the inevitability narrative takes hold quickly.

[squirecam]

34. And as thanks

To her supporters, puts Amy on the ticket.

Win/win

[MontanaFarmer]

35. I'd love her on the ticket.

I'd also love her as agriculture secretary. Her ties to the farmers union side of the industry would allow some wonderful new ideas into USDA.