The caucus change that has Iowa bracing for a hot mess

[Shrek]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/16/iowa-caucus-vote-totals-change-099519

For the first time in the history of Iowa’s Democratic caucuses, the party will report the raw vote count for each candidate. And because of idiosyncrasies in the caucus process, the person with the most votes at the beginning won’t necessarily be the one with the biggest delegate haul at the end.

Think of it as Iowa's version of the 2016 Electoral College issue: Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump handily in the popular vote total but lost the ultimate battle for electoral votes because of her failure in a handful of key places.

In Iowa, traditionally it’s the delegates that matter. And party leaders here emphasize that shouldn’t change: ultimately the presidential primary contest comes down to who gets the most delegates.

But the disclosure of two vote tallies and one delegate count on the night of the Feb. 3 caucuses — a move made to inject more transparency into the caucus process — is threatening to muddle the narrative coming out of Iowa. Depending on how the numbers are interpreted, there’s a scenario in which more than one candidate could claim a “win.”

[brooklynite]

1. The critical problem of the old system was: nobody actually knew the delegate allocation

The district Caucus is the first stage of four (District/County/CD/State) caucuses that occur over several months, during which candidates rise and fall and a number drop out. Hence a committed delegate on Caucus night may end up as a delegate vote for someone else when the process ends. What gets announced is an estimate of how the Party THINKS the final allocation will be. The raw vote announcement will at least be more timely.

[brush]

2. All the more reason to get rid of caucuses.