Democratic Primaries

James48

(4,440 posts) Wed Jan 15, 2020, 07:41 AM Jan 2020

Michigan Poll - Epic MRA find SANDERS/BIDEN both leading

SANDERS Beating Trump by more than 5 points
Sanders 50%, Trump 45%

BIDEN in a statistical deat heat
Biden 50%, Trump 44%

, and even Michael BLOOMBERG beating Trump in Michigan by 7 points!
Bloomberg 49%, Trump 42%

More to the poll results here:

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/01/15/mike-bloomberg-other-democrats-lead-donald-trump-michigan-poll/4469175002/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

12 replies

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Highlight:

Michigan Poll - Epic MRA find SANDERS/BIDEN both leading (Original Post) James48 Jan 2020 OP

So Sanders is leading by less than Biden... sweetloukillbot Jan 2020 #1

LOL! Woo boy! Kahuna7 Jan 2020 #2

MoE 4%, 'statistical dead heat'? Yes. crazytown Jan 2020 #4

By that "metric"... OilemFirchen Jan 2020 #10

This message was self-deleted by its author crazytown Jan 2020 #3

So Sanders leads by 5, Biden leads by 6... bearsfootball516 Jan 2020 #5

There is no such thing as a statistical dead heat. Loki Liesmith Jan 2020 #6

Thank you! DrToast Jan 2020 #9

People need to understand probabilities of results Loki Liesmith Jan 2020 #11

Yes, a result outside MOE may mean less certainty DrToast Jan 2020 #12

Favorability results from the same poll: LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #7

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #8

sweetloukillbot

(11,070 posts)

1. So Sanders is leading by less than Biden...

Reply to James48 (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 07:48 AM

Jan 2020

But Biden is in a dead heat?
OK.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)

2. LOL! Woo boy!

Reply to sweetloukillbot (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 08:02 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

4. MoE 4%, 'statistical dead heat'? Yes.

Reply to sweetloukillbot (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 08:04 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)

10. By that "metric"...

Reply to crazytown (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 02:18 PM

Jan 2020

Senator Sanders is losing to Trump by 3%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to James48 (Original post)

crazytown This message was self-deleted by its author.

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)

5. So Sanders leads by 5, Biden leads by 6...

Reply to James48 (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 08:14 AM

Jan 2020

And Sanders is "beating Trump" while Biden is in a "statistical dead heat"?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

6. There is no such thing as a statistical dead heat.

Reply to James48 (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 08:27 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DrToast

(6,414 posts)

9. Thank you!

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 01:49 PM

Jan 2020

I don’t know where it came from but I wish people would stop saying it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

11. People need to understand probabilities of results

Reply to DrToast (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 02:28 PM

Jan 2020

As a function of the confidence interval...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DrToast

(6,414 posts)

12. Yes, a result outside MOE may mean less certainty

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #11)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 03:18 PM

Jan 2020

But it does not mean a tie. The person ahead is still likely leading.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)

7. Favorability results from the same poll:

Reply to James48 (Original post)

Wed Jan 15, 2020, 10:16 AM

Jan 2020

Biden is the only one with a net favorable

Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Net Undecided
Joe Biden 44% 41% +3% 14%
Bernie Sanders 44% 45% -1% 11%
Elizabeth Warren 32% 39% -7% 15%
Pete Buttigieg 27% 27% 0% 16%
Mike Bloomberg 26% 34% -8% 24%
Donald Trump 41% 54% -13% 5%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to James48 (Original post)

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