U.S. JOE BIDEN IS FAVORITE TO WIN CLOSE IOWA CAUCUS RACE WITH ODDS OF ONE IN FOUR: FORECAST

[Iamaartist]

Joe Biden is most likely to win the first nominating contest of the 2020 Democratic primary race, a new forecast has shown.

The former Vice President has a one in three chance of winning the most votes in the Iowa caucus, while second place Bernie Sanders has winning odds of one in four (27 percent), according to a forecast launched by FiveThirtyEight on Thursday.

Having simulated the primary contest "thousands of times" using a model that accounts for drop outs and polling swings, the pollsters found Biden won 27 percent of votes in the state on average. In 80 percent of all predictions, he was found to pick up between 4 and 49 percent of the vote.

When it comes to delegates, Biden is forecast to win an average of 13 pledged Iowa delegates from a total of 41, and has a 38 percent chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate.

Vermont Senator Sanders was again found to be close behind the frontrunner, with a three in ten chance of bagging the most delegates. He is also projected to win 11 pledged delegates in the state on average.

By comparison, third and fourth place candidates Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren won 8 and 6 delegates on average respectively under the FiveThirtyEight model



Its average of Iowa caucus polls shows the race in the first nominating contest of the primaries will be incredibly right. Just 2.4 percentage points separate first place Biden and third place Buttigieg, and less than a single point stands between the former vice president and

Joe Biden is most likely to win the first nominating contest of the 2020 Democratic primary race, a new forecast has shown.

The former Vice President has a one in three chance of winning the most votes in the Iowa caucus, while second place Bernie Sanders has winning odds of one in four (27 percent), according to a forecast launched by FiveThirtyEight on Thursday.

Having simulated the primary contest "thousands of times" using a model that accounts for drop outs and polling swings, the pollsters found Biden won 27 percent of votes in the state on average. In 80 percent of all predictions, he was found to pick up between 4 and 49 percent of the vote.

When it comes to delegates, Biden is forecast to win an average of 13 pledged Iowa delegates from a total of 41, and has a 38 percent chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate.

Vermont Senator Sanders was again found to be close behind the frontrunner, with a three in ten chance of bagging the most delegates. He is also projected to win 11 pledged delegates in the state on average.

By comparison, third and fourth place candidates Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren won 8 and 6 delegates on average respectively under the FiveThirtyEight model.



Its average of Iowa caucus polls shows the race in the first nominating contest of the primaries will be incredibly right. Just 2.4 percentage points separate first place Biden and third place Buttigieg, and less than a single point stands between the former vice president

The Iowa caucus is just 24 days away, with Democrats in the Hawkeye State due to pick their favorite presidential candidate on February 3. Having remained the first nominating state since 1972, Iowa state officials will be revealing vote totals for the first time this year.

Out of the 41 pledged delegates on offer, 14 will be dished out based on the statewide vote, while 27 are awarded based on congressional district counts.

On a national level, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Biden the best odds of winning the majority of pledged delegates, measuring the likelihood of him winning the 2020 nomination at 40 percent.

The odds of Sen. Sanders doing the same are roughly half, with the forecasting projecting his odds as one in five at the time of writing. It also found that "no one" was more likely to win more than half of pledged delegates than either Warren or Buttigieg.

Its average of national Democratic primary polling also gave the former vice president a clear lead, with backing from more than 26 percent of party voters—eight points ahead of Senator Sanders on 18.1 percent.





https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-favorite-win-iowa-caucus-forecast-1481490

[getagrip_already]

1. I welcome it - I just don't believe it.....

There are campaigns out there that are betting the farm on winning. They will have screamers in every caucus site. They simply won't let joes people group up and be counted.

It's a sucky process, but it isn't going to be however the polls predict.

But hey, it's only 54 delegates out of 4300, and those are proportionally ranked. It means nothing. The winner might get 5 more delegates than the runner up.

But if you are a dem voter in iowa and support joe, you better put on your battle togs and prepare to yell and be intimidated. Cause the meek shall not win in iowa.

[Iamaartist]

2. We shall see..what happens..

Waiting begins...

[still_one]

4. I agree. It is too close, and Iowa being a caucus makes it even more unpredictable

[The Revolution]

6. Haven't ever seen that

Went to the caucus here in Iowa in 2004, 2008, and 2016. I've never seen any "screamers" or had trouble grouping up with my candidate's supporters. Usually when you come in, someone points out where each group is gathering, then you sit with that group until they count. Each group will have someone talk, but in my experience there isn't much movement unless a candidate isn't viable. And maybe there will be a few undecided voters at the beginning.


Honestly I expect most people to sit quietly while looking at their phones.

If you are supporting a candidate that is less likely to be viable, you may have to be a little louder to make sure other potential supporters realize you are there. Usually people just tape up or hold up some signs.

[ritapria]

3. This forecast is based on polls of "likely voters"

This forecast is premised on the assumption that only "likely voters" will attend the Iowa Caucus ...If " first-timers" flood the zone" in 2020 , this forecast will not amount to a hill of beans …. How can a pollster accurately measure enthusiasm (or lack thereof) and organizational capability ( or lack thereof) in a Caucus state ? They can't ...That is why polling caucus states is so tricky ..Forecasts based on polls even trickier …

[Demsrule86]

5. I think polls using likely voters are more accurate...and they are more likely to spend time at an

undemocratic caucus that does not measure the state...If Biden wins Iowa...unless Warren wins New Hampshire convincingly, she is toast. Sanders hands on but he will lose too in the end.