Finishing 2nd in Iowa behind Bernie would make Biden the moderate alternative.

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

If Biden finishes ahead of Buttigieg and Klobuchar in Iowa, it's over for both of them, not just Amy.

If Warren or Buttigieg drop below 15% in either Iowa or New Hampshire, that person is also done.
Public confidence in either would be shattered.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. It's not over until it's over.

The fat lady doesn't sing until March.

[bluewater]

2. On reflection...

March is a way aways… good point.

Things do happen.

[empedocles]

29. Don't forget 'the Ides of March'

[Joe941]

3. Bernie is the story in this analysis.

[bluewater]

5. Strong Sander's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would shake things up.

good point.

[judeling]

4. Amy maybe not

As the newest face to most. But Buttigieg for sure as that would be a decline.
If Buttigieg finishes 3 that means Klobuchar in 4th or 5th and she would be out. But if She finishes in third then Buttigieg is done and New Hampshire would be her last chance.

[Buzz cook]

6. Finishing second would not make Biden moderate.

Unless we are talking alternative moderate.

[Sloumeau]

7. Here's how I look at it:

Here are the first four states on the calendar:

Link:

[link:https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-calendar/|


Date....................State.....................Type

February 3............Iowa......................Caucus

February 11..........New Hampshire.......Primary

February 22..........Nevada..................Caucus

February 29..........South Carolina........Primary

The way I look at it, after the four early states are over, if you are above 15% in four states you are doing Excellent (letter grade A). If you are above 15% in three states you are doing Good (Letter grade B). If you get 15% in two states you are doing Fair (Letter grade C). If you get 15% in one state, you are doing Poorly (Letter grade (D). Finally, if after these four states, you haver zero states above 15%, you have failed (letter grade F).

Any A's and B's will probably hang on for a while. I expect the C's, D's, and F's won't make it long past Super Tuesday.

[bluewater]

8. interesting perspective

I'm going to make a score card based on this. lol

Thanks.

[Voltaire2]

9. Lulzd.

[roody]

10. Moderate as in continuing endless war?

[ehrnst]

24. You mean like....

In 1998 Sanders voted in favor of the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, which said: "It should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and to promote the emergence of a democratic government to replace that regime."

Later that same year, Sanders also backed a resolution that stated: "Congress reaffirms that it should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and to promote the emergence of a democratic government to replace that regime."


Sanders also voted for the 2001 Authorization Unilateral Military Force Against Terrorists (AUMF), which pretty much allowed Bush to wage war wherever he wanted.

Authorization for Use of Military Force - Authorizes the President to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations, or persons.
States that this Act is intended to constitute specific statutory authorization within the meaning of the War Powers Resolution.

Bernie supported the 1999 American bombing operation in Kosovo, and has criticized the high cost of the F-35 fighter jet program, he supported the Air Force’s decision to base some of those F-35s in his home state of Vermont, protecting more than 1,000 jobs tied to the military-industrial complex.

[Gothmog]

11. sanders needs to win big in all white states

Joe is going to do great in South Carolina and the south on Super Tuesday

Link to tweet

[crazytown]

12. Biden will be lucky not to score a 4th in IA

- a replay of 2008. All the polls had HRC way on top. She lost to superior ground games.

[Gothmog]

14. sanders is not Obama

Obama was helped by a large number of caucuses. I know in that Texas had the Texas two step in 2008 where Hillary won the primary but Obama got more delegates in Texas due to the caucus portion of the Texas Two Step.

Luckily there are far fewer caucuses this cycle. I note that sanders got a good percentage of his delegate wins in states with caucuses and these states now have primaries.

[crazytown]

15. I've said this a number of times,

but Obama wasn't OBAMA, for me at least, until New Hampshire primary night. 'Yes We Can' lit up the skies of NV, SC and Super Tuesday like lightning.

Is there a place for caucuses? I've never been to one. Group dynamics are subject to last minute manipulation. I don't know.

[Gothmog]

16. I waw with the Obama voter protection team and help run one

There are games that you can play to maximize the number of delegates. The Obama team had trainers come down from Iowa and helped train us on how to play games with caucuses.

I am so glad that Texas got rid of the Texas two step

[Gothmog]

13. In order to cancel out Biden's massive lead in the south, Bernie needs huge leads with white voters

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

18. good bye

I am sure your stay will be brief.

[George II]

19. That guy had a major issue with the word "tread", i.e. "thread"!

[brooklynite]

20. And if Biden finishes second to Buttigieg?

[Demsrule86]

22. Biden's fine...his strength was never supporsed to be in Iowa...but Warren, Klobachar and all the

others are done. Pete becomes one of the top three until Nevada and South Carolina (diversity) where it is all over for him and the fat lady sings...I also think coming in third would damage Sanders...but no matter what he too will hit a wall when states with diversity beging voting. We could have a nominee as early as super Tuesday.

[Demsrule86]

21. I have no idea what will happen... going to be very interesting.

[Gothmog]

23. According to Nate, Joe Biden leads in Iowa

Link to tweet

[Hortensis]

25. So finishing first would make Sanders a moderate.

[blm]

26. That's what Biden camp wanted when they focused attacks on Warren for

3months, isn’t it?

[bluewater]

27. I think you are correct!

Warren is back on the upswing though, just in time to get some momentum before voting starts.

[OnDoutside]

28. Top 3 for Biden in Iowa and/or NH would probably be enough before

South Carolina.....

[Hortensis]

30. Hypothetically finishing behind Sanders would make Biden the WHITE

runner-up in the little white state of Iowa. And that's all.

Biden is the most popular candidate with whites, AA and LatinX, but he's only barely higher with whites than the next two down. While he is by far the most popular with AA and LatinX.

And both IA and NH just happen to have very few blacks and LatinX. So polls there create an artificial appearance of relatively greater support for the second-tier candidates because they have little support to lose from non-white demographics who mostly don't exist.

There, in Iowa. But very much do elsewhere.