*New* Sanders is in a first-place tie in Iowa, has a narrow edge in NH

[Donkees]

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

1. That's a good poll for Sanders!

And it's nice to see Warren moving back up again and Klobuchar starting to get some traction too.

[Sloumeau]

7. It's nice to see two women in the top five,

and not a billionaire in sight.

[Skya Rhen]

16. Really? Warren is down 15 points in NH from the last YouGov Poll released on Nov 16 - she was at 31%

In Iowa, Warren is down 2 points - she was at 18% in the YouGov Iowa poll released on Nov 16...




New Hampshire:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pubOi7tGP9BOHHNbNj3XLtMXxOUheSd/view

Iowa:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13afQpotpd1MwwjjjoegtFv-tRtQ6tQbO/view

[bluewater]

17. Yes, really lol

She had a sever mid-4th quarter decline in polling and is moving back up again!

wooo!

I think your old poll, from November 16th was it, was right before her slump.

But she persists! And is back on the upswing just in time for actual votong.

[Skya Rhen]

19. You can't be serious.

[bluewater]

21. The polls are what the polls are.

But, actual voting starts very soon so that is something to look forward to.

It will be nice to be able to discuss actual election results soon.

[BannonsLiver]

28. Yes, it will be.

Especially if one has the receipts.

[bluewater]

30. I hope a definitive leader emerges after Super Tuesday, and that it's Warren.

And I mean right after Super Tuesday.

Biden supporters claim it's going to happen and he will be the clear leader, some go as far to state he will mathematically clinch the nomination then (though that really isn't possible).

Sanders supporters hope that a dominating showing in IA, NH and NV will springboard him to a Super Tuesday bonanza.

Bloomberg supporters feel no one will emerge as a clear leader on Super Tuesday, but that he will become one of the top three candidates in delegate totals.

We Warren supporters hope that Biden falters and she becomes the consensus candidate that progressives and moderates rally around.

Buttigieg supporters... well, they too must be hoping Biden falters and that minority support isn't as important as it has been in the past.

Will a definitive leader emerge so soon? I really don't think so, but if one does it would have to be Biden, his support among minority Democrats will firewall him against even a strong Sanders surge.

But what about the brokered convention? hmmm? hmmm? hmmm?

I think it's very likely that no candidate can get enough delegate from the primaries to win on the first ballot.

Some people agree with that but then insist that enough candidates will drop out before or at the convention if that seems likely, giving the person with the plurality at that point (whom they insist will be Biden) the nomination on the first ballot..

I would call THAT a brokered convention, in that no candidate won enough delegates outright to win independently on the first ballot.

Could a brokered convention move onto a 2nd ballot or more?

Possibly.

If enough candidates choose not to concede and no candidate has a majority, the Super Delegates that can then vote on a 2nd ballot will simply tip the scales to the leader since they account for15% of all total delegates. That means the leading candidate will need a plurality of about 36% of the delegates from the primaries for this to happen. People feel this is the most likely outcome of any possible brokered convention.

Could two or more candidates agree to form a common front giving them more delegates than the one holding the plurality of delegates coming in? Possibly. But only if the plurality is in the very low 30% range or probably the 25-30% range.

Is this likely? No, I don't think so because I believe the next two strongest candidates won't be politically compatible. For example, a Sanders/Bloomberg coalition just won't happen.

So does that mean a Sanders/Warren coalition can not win at brokered convention at all? Well, one of them would have to be leading with a plurality of the delegates coming in to make that possible. If Biden holds that plurality, no, a Sanders/Warren coalition would simply not be strong enough.

And FINALLY...

The Super Delegates are going to vote for the candidate with the plurality of delegates entering the convention. Period. They will put immense pressure on all candidates to also get behind the person holding that plurality whether their delegates are needed or not to send the party out united.

I believe this final case will be true even if Sanders is the person holding the plurality of delegates entering the convention. The Super Delegates will do the right thing, get behind the single candidate with the most voter support and unite the party behind them.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. It's a *three-way* tie for first place in Iowa.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287407999

[George II]

4. Aw, you're spoiling the "narrative"!

[totodeinhere]

12. Not really. The OP accurately quoted that poll. n/t

[liberal N proud]

26. Bias polling for sure

[George II]

3. It should read " *New* Sanders is STILL in a first place tie, but lost ground to Buttigieg!"

No big change from the *last* CBS/YouGov poll. BS was tied with Biden, and now it's a 3-way tie, which means he's lost ground since the November poll.

Buttigieg gained 2%
Biden gained 1%
BS gained 1%.

Nothing earth shattering.

[totodeinhere]

13. No, I think what they meant was that this is a new poll result.

They did not mean that it's a new fact that Sanders is leading an Iowa poll.

[Uncle Joe]

5. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread Donkees.

[janterry]

6. There is HOPE

[DownriverDem]

8. Caucuses

are not the same as primary elections. Iowa is not like most of the states diversity wise. Keep that in mind.

[ritapria]

9. Bernie gained 1% in Iowa , +7% in NH

The Iowa Poll shows no statistically relevant change in race since November …… As for NH ……. Bernie up 7% since November , Biden up 3 %.. Warren down a whopping 14% since November .....Buttigieg down 4% .. Klobuchar up 4% ……. In Iowa the Big enthusiasm edge goes to Bernie ..That matters in a Caucus state ... He has captured the momentum in NH - at Warren's expense

[totodeinhere]

14. That result is not very good for Warren. However as we know polls go up and down.

I think that she will remain a major force right up to the convention whether she gets the nomination or not. And she and her many supporters will be heard.

[BannonsLiver]

25. Only 1 percent?

Now it looks like neither IA or NH will be the easy wins Sanders supporters here have been predicting.

[Sloumeau]

10. Notice that Sanders Plus Warren 27% + 18% 45%.

Also notice that Biden, Buttigieg and Klubuchar= 25% + 13% + 7% = 45%.

These means that the 2 lefties have 45% of the vote, and that the 3 more moderates have 45% of the vote, for a total of 90% of the vote. This makes perfect sense because I believe that a recent gallop poll had the number of self-identified liberals in the Democratic party at 51%. Thus, it makes sense that the liberals would take about half of the votes. Who wins this election may very well depend upon when people drop out, which I think a few people here on DU have mentioned recently.

Also, notice that these 5 candidates have sewn up 90% of the votes. I really think the game is pretty much over for anyone who is not in this top 5. Few want to vote for a billionaire like Steyer or Bloomberg. Yang and Booker just don't seem to have enough traction to ever make it to the top, and the other remaining candidates don't even seem to have a hope of making a debate.

Here are a few widely speculative What ifs:

What if, in order to lock up the nomination, Biden promised the VP slot to either Buttigieg of Klobuchar if they dropped out right away?
What if Sanders and Warren came up with a President/VP ticket arrangement and one of them dropped out?

A person dropping out at the right time could totally change this race.

Well, mainstream media, you wanted a horserace, and things like the three-way-tie in Iowa among Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg means you are going to get your wish. The race is still on, at least for the top five.

[totodeinhere]

15. I object to your characterization of Sanders and Warren as "lefties."

As far as I'm concerned they are in the mainstream of where the American people are right now as a whole and either would beat the pants off from that idiot in the White House.

[Sloumeau]

22. Would you prefer that I call them "liberals" or "progressives", or...

would you just prefer that I call them "mainstream candidates"?

I could call them that, but it would not be accurate. Support for the policies of Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders, and for Elizabeth Warren, whose polices are very close to Bernie Sanders, on average seem to line up with about 51% of the Democrats, and Democrats have the largest share of Lefty/Liberal/Progressives in the country of the three major political groups: Democrats, Independents, and Conservatives. However, when you look at the country as a whole, you can see a different picture from the picture within the Democratic Party. If you go to the following link...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/245813/leans-conservative-liberals-keep-recent-gains.aspx

you will see a Gallup poll for how people identified themselves among three groups: Liberals, Moderates or Conservatives. Now, while you will see the total percentage of self-identified Liberals go up from about 17% in 1992 to about 26% in 2018, you will notice that the percentage of self-described Moderates and Conservatives in 2018 is about 35 each. In other words, there are more self-described Moderates in this country than Liberals and there are more self-described Conservatives in this country than there are Liberals. To call the Liberal policies of either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders mainstream would seem to be inaccurate because about 70% of the country does not consider themselves to be Liberals.

Now, you might present polls about certain issues to say that certain issues are popular, but a lot of that has to do with how an issue is presented to people. If you poll people with a question like, "Do you want everyone to have healthcare?" that might come out pretty popular, so you might say, "Hey, this is a mainstream proposal because a majority of people support it". However, there is a difference between a poll question and reality. Let's look at the ACA for example. Polls done before it was passed seemed to indicate that a majority of people supported it. However, after it passed, and Republicans really began to emphasize how people would have to pay more in taxes if they did not get insurance, and how certain doctors no longer took patients who had the updated insurance policies, support for the ACA dropped. This is one of the reasons why the Democrats got their butts kicked in 2010. Sometimes the way poll questions are presented can affect how popular things seem to be. Now, the individual mandate no longer exists, and lots more people support the ACA than before. So, the ACA seemed popular with the majority before it was implemented, then seemed unpopular with the majority shortly after it was implemented, then eventually became more popular.

So, was the ACA popular with the mainstream? The answer is yes, then no, then yes. The policies supported by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren would dramatically move this country to the left. They would argue that these changes are needed, and that may be true. However, whether or not someone considers their ideas "mainstream" would depend on who you ask and their political leanings. Sanders and Warren definitely represent the more left/liberal/progressive side of the Democratic party and the most left/progressive/liberal candidates of all of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Contenders. They have said over and over again that they are liberal, that they are progressive, and that their proposals represent radical change which they think is needed.

You think Bernie Sanders represents the mainstream. I do not. I believe that he represents the most liberal part of the Democratic Party, which is the most Liberal major party in the country. Every person is entitled to his or her opinion. However, if you are bothered when someone calls either Sanders or Warren a Lefty when they themselves both recognize that they represent the more Progressive and Liberal part of the Democratic Party, it seems to me that you are being a tad bit oversensitive. They would both tell you that they are Liberal, and they would both tell you that they are Progressive. That is exactly what being on the Left means.

Heck, the whole Democratic Party is on the Left when compared to the Independents and the Conservatives. Blue States mean Democratic, and they tend to be more Progressive, Liberal, and on the Left. Red States mean Republican, and they tend to be more Conservative and on the Right. People often use the terms "The Left" "Democratic" "Liberal" and "Progressive" interchangeably, as they do "Conservative" "Republican" and "The Right". I am not going to think that I did anything wrong calling someone a "Lefty" if he or she regularly calls himself a "Liberal" or a "Progressive". I am not really sure why you think that that is a problem.

[crazytown]

36. " (Sanders) represents the most liberal part of the Democratic Party"

Sanders does not represent the liberal/left tradition of the Democratic Party. His slogan explains it. 'Not me. Us' The interest of the collective over the individual. Democratic Socialism, not liberal Social Democracy.

[Sloumeau]

37. Whether a politician has slogan of "Not me. Us" or not...

politicians represent the people who vote for them. Ideally, the also represent everyone in their districts or state. They also represent the ideas that they present to the voters. This is why it is called a "representative democracy" or a "Democratic Republic" or a "Democracy" or a "Republic". Because we, the voters, do not have time to research and vote on every bill, we vote for people to represent us. This is why we have a "United States House Of Representatives".

[crazytown]

35. "What if Sanders and Warren came up with a President/VP ticket arrangement"

There are Warren supporters who would not vote for that ticket. I'm one of them.

[HeartlandProgressive]

11. K&R

[SaschaHM]

18. Great poll for Biden.

Delegates will be split. Warren isn't being trounced in a manner that would make her drop out before Super Tuesday. Looks like he's more or less sewing this up on Super Tuesday or shortly after.

[ritapria]

20. Source Bill Neidhardt Twitter Feed

Today Bernie drew a crowd of 430 voters in Boone , Iowa this Sunday Morning …..Only 800 caucused in Boone , Iowa in 2016 …..

[BannonsLiver]

24. ...

[BannonsLiver]

23. Doesn't look like the easy win for Bernie many of his supporters here have been predicting.

[evertonfc]

27. He should be.

because he is about to get demolished once it goes south

[RandySF]

29. A three way tie is not first place,

[Joe941]

31. Bernie is running an incredible campaign.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

32. The primary definition of "incredible" is

"too extraordinary and improbable to be believed."

[Gothmog]

33. sanders is tied in Iowa

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

34. In order to cancel out Biden's massive lead in the south, Bernie needs huge leads with white voters

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

38. According to Nate, Joe Biden leads in Iowa

Link to tweet