Biden's National Momentum Is Translating to the Early States

[highplainsdem]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/703589?unlock=U9DX5170UU5Z4HH0

As always, actions speak as loudly as polls. Sanders’s decision this week to aggressively attack Biden, throwing out an extended litany of criticisms against him in a Washington Post interview, is a sign that he sees the former vice president as a threat in Iowa. Even though they’re distinct ideologically, both draw outsized support from working-class white voters who make up a sizable share of Iowa’s Democratic electorate.

If Warren and Buttigieg were the trendy front-running candidates in the Iowa caucuses last year, Biden and Sanders now look like the two strongest contenders with less than one month left until Election Day. If Biden was still lagging behind in Iowa, as earlier polls suggested, it wouldn’t make much sense for Sanders to ramp up his attacks.

The emerging reality also is a reminder that Biden is a stronger front-runner than he’s given credit for. Not only does he dominate among three of the Democratic Party’s core voting constituencies—African-Americans, seniors, and moderates—but he’s got many more pathways to winning the nomination than his rivals.

If he beats expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire, it will be hard for anyone to derail his momentum. And even if he underperforms, he still is well-positioned to rebound in demographically favorable Nevada and South Carolina, not to mention in the Southern-centered Super Tuesday battlegrounds.

Weak performances by Warren and Buttigieg in Iowa would be awfully damaging to their campaigns, given their limited appeal with nonwhite voters. Sanders faces similar handicaps if he struggles out of the gate, but his loyal base and strength with Hispanic union members in Nevada gives him a few more options to rebound.

Time is running out for Biden’s rivals. A looming impeachment trial in the Senate threatens to sideline many of his rivals from the trail. Kamala Harris, who once looked like his most formidable challenger, already dropped out. Warren and Buttigieg have peaked and need to turn things around quickly. Sanders, who is surging at the right time, lacks the establishment support typically necessary to win.

Everything’s coming up Biden in 2020, a remarkable turn of fortune for a candidate who long dreamed of the presidency but has never come this close to winning his party’s nomination.

Emphasis added.

[comradebillyboy]

1. Looking at the crisis in the Middle East, who really thinks cranky

thin skinned Bernie is the guy to pursue any kind of successful diplomacy. or even have a clue how to govern an international superpower?

[peggysue2]

12. x1000!

Exactly on the nose. Each one of our candidates will be judged against the ongoing crisis with one question in mind: Who would be best suited in a moment or a series of moments of international tension and uncertainty? Who do you trust has the experience, skillset and calm deliberation to keep the country safe regardless of how rough the waters become?

I have my answer. And it ain't Bernie.

[Demsrule86]

16. Let me simply say...not me!

[Thekaspervote]

24. The voice of sanity... thank you!!

[onetexan]

35. BS has got nothin' on Joe Biden. Seems the cranky uncle's fibs is having the opposite effect.

Joe is the ONLY candidate i would trust to immediately restore international relations with our allies. No other candidate comes close.

[janterry]

2. unenthusiastic momentum

[LongtimeAZDem]

3. Sour grapes

[Sloumeau]

8. I know fans of Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and others.

The Biden fans that I know are the most enthusiastic out of all of them. Some people think we are unenthusiastic because Biden sometimes does not have a huge amount of people show up at his rallies. Well, a lot of us are older. We have a family to take care of, houses to maintain, and bills to pay. A lot of us may not have time to show up for a Biden rally. Yet, here in Arizona. we can vote by mail. Which means I just need to fill in a few boxes and mail my ballot in. Like so many Biden fans, I probably will not make it to a Biden rally this year, but you can bet that I will vote for him in the Democratic Primary and then again in November.

Maybe, when Trump is finally gone, my fellow Biden fans and I will finally have more time to leave the house in order to attend political rallies. We can only hope.

[LongtimeAZDem]

11. +1

[progressoid]

23. I too know fans of Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and others.

They also have a family to take care of, houses to maintain, and bills to pay.

[janterry]

14. maybe, to be sure

I am pretty horrified by the prospect of Biden.

But mostly, I just don't think he has a chance.

I think Biden's out-of-touch-ness with the younger and more progressive wing of the party
combined with his propensity for gaffes and the overall lack of enthusiasm his campaign inspires.........

oh, my! and not to mention a whole campaign spent arguing about his son........


My best guess is that we will lose.

[Thekaspervote]

25. That's your opinion..and that's all it is... an opinion

[janterry]

29. well, now

of course it is

[samnsara]

31. really???? Thats NOT what Im hearing reading or seeing....

[Demsrule86]

36. You make the mistake of thinking everyone thinks like you do...people often do. But it is not the

case. My kids are all voting for Biden. He has the best chance to beat Trump...IMHO the only chance. If there is so much momentum for Warren or for Sanders than why are they not the front runner?

[janterry]

38. No, I don't

not at all.

I always say what I think and speak within the limits of my knowledge.

I also always say I could be wrong. To be sure, I've seen Biden crash more than one presidential run, in his career.

But I have no idea what will happen. It's just what I think.

[Demsrule86]

41. When Biden ran before it was a different time. I doubt anyone would have beat Hillary last time

so it is just as well he didn't run.Although had he managed to win the primary, he would have taken the states we needed. And Biden was VP for eight years; a game changer. Also Biden was very helpful with the rust belt.

I worked both 08 and 12 in Ohio. Biden came to Youngstown multiple times in 08 and he went to the union halls in Trumbull and Mahoning too...in 12 Clinton and Biden were instrumental in winning the general...the polls were terrible and we were all terrified...but I will never forget Clinton as the campaigner in chief telling folks what Obama had done as Obama was too modest...Biden was always a great general election candidate as he is great in the states we need...but in primaries people often want to fall in love...or some such thing and end up picking the wrong candidate.

I think Biden would have beat Bush in 88 but we let the right wing destroy our own as we are wont to do. I think this is it-his best chance. I am very enthusiastic as you can tell-Biden is a good guy and does not deserve the nasty posts heaped on him here...and if anyone can beat Trump, it is Biden.

[janterry]

45. re:

[emmaverybo]

44. I was enthusiastic before he even decided to run. Many of his supporters have known and loved Joe

for a long time. We are not just infatuated. Our claims about him may be less lavish than others make about their preferred candidates simply because we tend to pragmatism, to calm, to not believe that any president is going to single-handedly transform American and global economics, have the time, political consensus, or power to enact multiple policy initiatives that cost trillions and not substantially raise taxes.

That we might tend to appreciate our candidate more quietly does not mean we are less constant.
Infatuation is easily dimmed by the intrusion of reality. Love and respect earned through decades, through actions not promises, tends to be more lasting.

Rallies don’t translate to votes. Cheerleaders don’t win games.

[onetexan]

37. LOL

they don't seem to see we're enthusiastic, and the millions who support Joe, as the polls show, feel the same way

[janterry]

39. lol

people here are, that's true. I've said that before.

I just don't think across the country he generates that kind of reaction. And, of course, his rallies and meetings are one indicator.

But, we'll see what happens. Perhaps things will change for him, this time around.

[Demsrule86]

17. such a sour taste...

[pfeiffer]

19. enthusiastic momentum

[samnsara]

30. we still vote

[Sloumeau]

4. highplainsdem, thanks a bunch for posting this! :)

This is very good news for Joe Biden!

[crazytown]

5. "If he beats expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire"

... and if he loses badly, it means nothing, as endless DU OPs have made clear.

[Skya Rhen]

9. It means nothing because people, like the diverse voters in NV and SC, will decide who's the nominee

Rest assured that Iowa and New Hampshire won't dictate who voters, in the states that follow, should cast their ballots for.

[progressoid]

22. You should tell that to the Biden campaign.

He's making 7 stops in Iowa in the next three days alone.

Seems like a waste of time if it means nothing.

[Thekaspervote]

28. His campaign is a 50 state strategy. I think his people have it covered. So don't worry

[Thekaspervote]

26. +1000

[pfeiffer]

20. He won't lose badly...that much is clear.

[crazytown]

27. 4th in IA

bookmark it - Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren have extraordinary operations on the ground.

[Thekaspervote]

32. No.. 538 poll averages have Biden in the lead in IA

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287405831

[crazytown]

34. HRC was 20 points ahead on Caucus eve, 2008

How did that work out? Obama's ground game was second to none. There's no Obama in this field, but there's no Hillary either. Biden's ground game is workmanlike, little more. A big Biden win in IA would probably be the best outcome for the GE - get it over with, but that ain't happening. 4th. bookmark it.

[Demsrule86]

43. It was a two person race in 08...and maybe others have figured out this is the best outcome in Iowa.

Let's hope. The sooner we turn to beating up on Trump instead of each other the better.

[Wawannabe]

6. Biden

Has Bernie campaign and supporters thrashing about and showing their true colors.

[ritapria]

7. Does Biden have an orgainization in Iowa to get his supporters out on Caucus Night ?

I don't mean that to be snarky, but rather an honest question …. Bernie's Iowa campaign is going to knock on 70,000 doors this weekend ….These efforts pay off in a close race …..

[Sloumeau]

10. This is from last July:

Unlike previous runs, Joe Biden is building out Iowa campaign team with 'robust' hiring, voter outreach

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/07/29/joe-biden-iowa-caucuses-2020-organizing-hires-staff-social-media-facebook-fundraising-democratic/1766592001/

IOWA CITY, Ia. — Fueled by strong fundraising and leading in the polls, Joe Biden is building the kind of top-tier Iowa organization that eluded him in his previous runs for president.

The former vice president benefits from a deep well of goodwill in the state. And at campaign stops, Biden frequently promises Iowa voters he plans to work hard to earn their support.

His campaign is making good on that promise by locking in existing backers and bringing in new support through extensive spending on social media and outreach from a growing staff roster. By Aug. 1, the campaign says it will have about 75 total staff members in Iowa, 60 of whom will be field staff.
...
In fact, Biden's operation is now one of the largest — if not the largest — so far in the state, surpassing many of his Democratic rivals. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign reported 65 staffers in Iowa as of July 1, while U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders had 48, former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke had 44 and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris had nearly 50.
...

[BannonsLiver]

13. How many of the 70,000 will say no thanks?

[TexasTowelie]

15. Exactly.

[Demsrule86]

18. Yes he does...I believe second only to Warren...not sure about Buttigieg.

He also has the unions...unions are great in caucuses...particularly the fireman's union.

[bucolic_frolic]

33. Biden has integrity

Biden has an intangible desire for public service. Through my decades in the Philadelphia area, he would get a lot of media coverage, and even with his few controversies, he just seemed of sound judgment and normal. I think that will be important later this year, people want a return to normalcy, someone who exudes common sense, and the values the country stood for in good times and bad before Trump. Trump's credentials are all negative now, only MID's can support him.

MID's. MAGAt's In Denial.

[DownriverDem]

40. Early Support

Folks have shown support for Biden early because he has the experience, knowledge, will take it to trump and gives them comfort/hope for the country. They believe Biden can win enough states to beat trump. They understand the seriousness of it all.

[Scurrilous]

42. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

46. K&R