Biden is leading in Iowa and tied in New Hampshire and crushing the others in South Carolina.They

[Demsrule86]

may take no delegates from south Carolina. ... updated 538 polling algorithms show Biden is leading in Iowa, tied or leading in New Hampshire, and crushing everyone in South Carolina. Not good news for Sanders, Warren or Buttigieg who need Iowa and New Hampshire unlike Biden. On a dark day thanks to criminal warmongering impeached TRump, this is welcome news.

A big thanks to beastie boy...thanks to his post I looked at 538's updated averages. Take a look.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=405736

Iowa



Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/



New Hampshire




Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/new-hampshire/


South Carolina


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/

[calimary]

1. Nice!

[Demsrule86]

4. I would not be surprised if he didn't win both New Hampshire and Iowa...I don't think he has to

though.

[redstateblues]

2. But but but Steve Kornacki said ....

[Demsrule86]

3. I was watching that yesterday and turned it off...Biden will win despite the media's best efforts

for 'woke' candidates.

[vsrazdem]

5. Okay, sure.

[Demsrule86]

6. Check it out yourself.

There are links.

[vsrazdem]

7. I'm waiting for votes.

[Demsrule86]

8. Not much longer to wait then...I do consider the polls significant though...and good news for Biden.

[Thekaspervote]

9. Indeed! Good news for Joe. Althou...don't wake those that want to one to be diluted...😂

It’s going to become obvious as you mentioned.... soon

[Demsrule86]

11. Very true...on a dark day like today with WWIII on the horizen thanks to the orange draft dodger...

Private bonespurs...it makes me fee a bit better.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Me too!

[Demsrule86]

14. We are going to make Biden the nominee and beat the Trump bastard in November.

[getagrip_already]

10. the russians don't get a vote in iowa....

It's a caucus. They can't hack into it.

But even so, it's irrelevant. So is nh. Small states with small numbers of delegates, that get proportionally divided.

Just bragging rights. But fleeting.

[Demsrule86]

12. That is true...and no one really expects Biden to win there...but for the others...I think it is

important...particularly for Warren and Buttigieg who have declined significantly if these poll average are correct.

[Thekaspervote]

15. True, but he won't walk away with out delegates in his column. Unlike SC where Biden will take all

[Demsrule86]

16. If Biden doesn't win outright...and I still think this could happen, it will be basically a tie...

and on super Tuesday...Biden may very well have an insurmountable lead...so I agree. Biden doesn't have to win in Iowa...he will as you noted get delegates, but both Warren and Buttigieg need to win...and to a lesser extent so does Sanders.

[Indykatie]

17. The 15% Requirement To Earn Delegates Will Affect A Number of "Top Tier"

candidates. Mayor Pete for sure and possibly Warren may end up with 0 delegates in a number of the early states.

[Demsrule86]

18. Yes. I am so glad the DNC did this...or given the supers rules...we could have a brokered convention

every time.

[ritapria]

19. The last 2 Iowa Polls show the following

Last edited Fri Jan 3, 2020, 04:17 PM - Edit history (4)

These are the only 2 Iowa polls conducted in December (Emerson & Iowa St/Civiqs) … Aggregate Result : Bernie 21.5% ….Buttigieg 21% .. Biden 19% … Warren 15% ….Klobuchar 7% ...Booker 3.5% …. Steyer, Yang, Gabbard 2.5% ... The Latest Hill / Harris X National Poll : Biden 28% (-1%)... Bernie 16%(+3%) …. Bloomberg 11% (+5%) .... Warren 11% (-2% ) ... … Buttigieg 6%(+1%) …...I don't believe Bloomberg is at 11% ……At least I hope people are not that dumb ………. This is a mediocre polling outfit

[Demsrule86]

20. Did you read it...I posted everything...these are updated polls using algorithms...and quite

valid...the methodology is discussed if you care to read it.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/

[LongtimeAZDem]

21. Ahh...ha...ha...ha...ha...ha...ha...

[Demsrule86]

22. Hehe....the exasperation is palpable...wait for the next Biden is 'bad' post

Not the above poster; He is more than fair...and just has a favorite like many of us.

[Gothmog]

23. #National @Harris_X_ / @Thehill Poll (12/27-28):

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

26. Good find!!!! Biden is pulling away...the trend is there.

[Demsrule86]

27. Ohio is in March I think...Biden wins Ohio.

[Demsrule86]

35. I want to see Texas turn blue before I die!

[Scurrilous]

25. K&R

[Demsrule86]

28. Thank you!

[Scurrilous]

29. You're welcome Demsrule86!

[helpisontheway]

30. But..But..But..BERNIE....🙄nt

[Demsrule86]

37. Yeah right.

[GP6971]

32. Enjoy your stay !! n/t

[Rhiannon12866]

33. Of 4 minutes!

[GP6971]

34. It was quick.

Don't know if my alert did it, but glad to see that one gone.

[Rhiannon12866]

36. I think it was, good quick job!

We miss you, but you're still contributing!