Biden is only Democrat currently outpolling Trump in Virginia

[Skya Rhen]

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the only Democratic presidential hopeful currently outpacing President Donald Trump in Virginia, according to a new year-end survey.

Trump edges three other top-tier Democrats — Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, according to a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. All of the results are within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The results indicate that while Virginia has evolved from a red state, to a swing state, to one that now leans blue, “Democrats cannot completely take Virginia for granted,” said Brad Coker, CEO and managing director of the polling and consulting organization. Biden received 49% to Trump’s 45% with 6% undecided in the poll of 625 registered voters surveyed by phone between Dec. 12-16.

Trump had the backing of 48% to Warren’s 44% with 8% undecided. The president got 51% to Sanders’ 45% with 4% undecided. Trump received 47% to Buttigieg’s 45% with 8% undecided.

Biden had the highest favorability rating in the poll at 51%, compared with 45% for Trump, 36% for Warren, 35% for Sanders and 33% for Buttigieg, the least well-known of the candidates in the survey. Buttigieg had the lowest unfavorability rating at 30%, compared with 33% for Biden, 48% for Trump, 51% for Warren and 52% for Sanders.

Virginia’s presidential primary is on March 3, Super Tuesday, following contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
In 2008, Barack Obama became the first Democrat to capture Virginia’s electoral votes since President Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Democrats have carried Virginia in the last three presidential elections.


https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/biden-is-only-democrat-currently-outpolling-trump-in-virginia/article_322639e4-ac3a-562b-86b9-3c56e210e408.html

[LonePirate]

1. This is a bullshit poll. Any Dem will win VA by a minimum of 5-7 points, and likely 10+ points.

The recent VA elections in 2017 and 2019 are all the proof you need. 45 is hated in NoVa and Richmond and will lose by 20-30+ points in those vote rich areas.

[Skya Rhen]

2. FiveThirtyEight has it rated as a B+ poll - but your expertise takes precedence, of course...

[LonePirate]

4. By all means, ignore all of the recent VA elections and place your faith in an obviously bad poll.

You can rely on a poll that is clearly wrong because you think it suggests your candidate is the only possible choice. I am going to rely on results from the past three presidential elections as well as the far more important state elections in VA in 2017 and 2019 where Democrats romped.

[LanternWaste]

11. Much as you're placing your faith in a post hoc logical fallacy?

And failing to support your allegation of a bad poll with any objective evidence?

Kinda holding others to a higher standard than yourself on this one.

Faith, indeed.

[FBaggins]

7. It's the second poll this month showing the same thing

And Mason/Dixon is just about the gold standard for national pollsters doing single-state polling.

...hated in NoVa and Richmond and will lose by 20-30+ points in those vote rich areas

Clinton won those areas by significantly more than 20-30 points and still only won the state by about 5%...

Polls late in 2015 showed her up by ~15% over Trump.

[LonePirate]

8. You're ignoring all recent elections in the state in favor of a poll that matches an agenda for some

[FBaggins]

9. You can't say that a poll is "obviously wrong" just because you don't like it

Those recent elections in the state were roughly in line with the polling at the time.

[LonePirate]

10. This poll is a massive and sudden reversal of the most recent election from November!

This poll is radically different from a massively larger sample size of roughly 2 million people who voted in the November 2019 elections in Virginia. You can believe one or the other but not both. I choose the verified results from less than two months ago. Feel free to believe the flawed and hypothetical poll that completely disagrees with recent results. You are choosing to believe this poll simply because you like its numbers, regardless of how much they differ from reality.

[LanternWaste]

12. After this, therefor because of this, eh?

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

An alleged reality, faith... whatever it takes, right?

[FBaggins]

13. No it isn't

None of these candidates were on the ballot in November... nor was turnout what it would be in a presidential election.

Trump won Florida by a single percentage point... but Rubio won the state by almost eight percent in the very same election. Note also that these two polls show several points of difference between candidates of the same party. You simply can't say "Well... Democrats did well in VA last month... so we already know who will win next year"

The point of the OP is that candidate selection matters... you can't refute that by saying that anyone with a "D" will win VA because some other Ds won local elections a year earlier.

[LonePirate]

14. Which VA election results do you refuse to believe are real? 2016? 2017? 2018? 2019?

There is a clear trend and consistent pattern with elections in VA during each of these four years. This poll is in contrast to the results and trend from all four years, yet somehow this poll is a herald speaking the unmistakable truth? It is a garbage, outlier poll.

The FL poll is at least consistent with the slightly red tint of the state and the close result in recent elections. The VA poll is not.

[Skya Rhen]

15. Joe is the only candidate that can beat Trump in these swing states - it's time for us to face it.

[LonePirate]

19. Except VA is not a swing state! VA is now a reliably blue state. It has changed massive since 2008.

If you want to push a case for FL being a swing state, then please do so as you can find evidence for it. The same cannot he said for VA which has proven each year during the past several years that it is more blue than the year before. With a Dem governor and Dems in charge of both chambers of the VA legislature, expect the passage of election and voting reform bills in 2020 that will keep the state blue.

[Skya Rhen]

20. Well, it's a reliably blue state that Bernie and Warren would lose to Trump...

[LonePirate]

21. The only Dem that could lose VA in 2020 is Gabbard. Sanders and Warren would win VA.

Polling experts are trashing this poll on Twitter for its screwed up methodology - far too many older voters and far too many voters without degrees. Both of those factors boost 45 and Biden while harming everyone else. It’s as if demographics from WV were used to poll VA.

[FBaggins]

17. Only one of us is refusing to believe something

Though you could say that I refuse to accept the unsupported premise of your position as a prerequisite to discussing it.

Prior election results tell us little to nothing about specific candidates for an entirely different office. Even reliably blue states occasionally elect a republican to a statewide race (and vice versa). Some candidates are more appealing than others in different parts of the country. There is no four year “trend” in VA for Sanders or Biden or Warren and how they compare to Trump.

The state has definitely shifted in our direction in recent years... but it's important to note that the candidates that we've had winning statewide in the state look quite a bit more like Biden than Warren or Sanders. It isn't at all surprising to see a disparity in how they poll in the state. What IS surprising is how close the race is even for Biden.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. There's plenty of evidence that Virginia remains a swing state...

Just because Democrats have won there doesn't mean it's suddenly Oregon. Look at the margins + the Democrats who've won statewide.

Ralph Northam was a former Republican who had his race break late against Ed Gillespie. He's more to the right than any candidate running for president.

In 2014, Warner won reelection by just 20,000 votes, despite winning by over 30% in 2008.

Virginia definitely leans Democratic but past elections, even recent elections, have shown it's still very close. Obama won it by +4 in 2012 and Hillary marginally improved it with a senator from Virginia on the ticket.

In fact, Virginia was probably way closer than it was expected to be in 2016, as was the case in 2014's midterm election.

So Democrats can't assume anything.

Assuming is what lost us PA and Michigan - two very reliable Democratic states at the presidential level.

[TexasTowelie]

23. You are choosing not to believe this poll simply because you don't like its numbers.

Warren has been slipping in the polls for a couple months now. It shouldn't come as a surprise that she is running behind Trump now because she was also running behind Trump when her poll numbers were peaking.

[Demsrule86]

16. Virginia is a moderate state...neither Warren nor Sanders will do well there IMHO.

My family in VA is supporting Biden...all of them.

[Demsrule86]

18. Those were district and legislature elections...you need a moderate candidate statewide.

Look what happened to Perriello in the governor's primary...he was backed by Sanders and others. Northam stomped him and we now have a majority in the legislature. Richmond is not New York.. . and we run either Sanders or Warren at our peril. We lose Virginia...we lose the general...stupid to take the chance...best to nominate someone who can win a general.

[boomer_wv]

3. It's a decent pollster

but they do have a R house effect and the VA results of this poll do seem much more R friendly than I'd expect give that Clinton won here by 5 and VA is more blue now than in 2016 even. However, the FL results look more inline with what I'd expect, so that's something to take into account.

Regardless, we again see Biden outperforming the field against Trump.

[Gothmog]

5. Poll: Trump trails Biden in Virginia, leads other 2020 Democrats

Link to tweet

[Sloumeau]

6. Skya Rhen, thanks for the posting! :)

This is good news for Joe Biden!