Why Biden's endorsement edge matters

[highplainsdem]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/25/politics/biden-endorsements-analysis/index.html

The endorsements keep on coming for former Vice President Joe Biden. On Monday, California Rep. Tony Cárdenas backed Biden's bid to be the Democratic nominee for president. It was Biden's 32nd endorsement from a governor or sitting member of Congress. No other Democrat has more than 13.

Biden's lead in endorsements is good news for him because candidates who lead in endorsements at this point usually do well in the primary. It paints the picture of a front-runner who may not be strong, though certainly is not weak, either.

Since 1980, there have been 14 primaries without an incumbent running in a given party's primary. For each of those, I looked at a dataset of endorsements in which each governor's endorsement was given 10 points, each senator's endorsement was given 5 points and each House member's endorsement was given 1 point.

The candidate leading in the endorsement primary at this point won 10 out of 14, or 71% of the time using this methodology. The only candidates who were winning the endorsement primary at this point and didn't go on to be the nominee were Democrat Dick Gephardt in 1988, Democrat Howard Dean in 2004, Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2008 and Republican Jeb Bush in 2016.

Biden, though, has something else going for him: he's also leading the polls. Gephardt in 1988 and Bush in 2016 were not anywhere near the lead in the national polls at this point. When candidates are leading in endorsements and the polls, they have won 7 out of 9 times (78%). When they lead in just endorsements and not the polling, they're 3 out of 5 (60%).

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One other thing that Biden was going for him is that he keeps on getting endorsements. He has gotten more this month from members of Congress or governors (3) than the rest of the field combined (0). That's important because, as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has pointed out, endorsements tend to be more predictive when they happen closer to the primary season.

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Happy Holidays to everyone here!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212814253

[TexasTowelie]

1. K&R! nt

[DownriverDem]

2. My support

goes to Biden. He can win enough states to beat trump. It's been a no brainer for a long time for me.

[Sloumeau]

3. highplainsdem, thanks for another great post! :)

This is great news for Joe Biden!

[Gothmog]

4. Endorsements do matter

[Thekaspervote]

5. Thx for posting highplainsdem and happy Christmas 🎄 to you!!

[emmaverybo]

6. Nice Xmas boost to my morale as one who supports Biden because his qualifications and experience

are unmatched by any other candidate. Perhaps, most important, I believe he has the character mettle, compassion, and widespread emotional appeal to be able to both unify and heal this nation.

But lest we mistake his natural bent towards reconciliation as weakness, it has been Biden, from day one, who called out the racist hatred displayed in Charlottesville as the ugly force we must battle for “the soul of our nation,” sending its followers “scrambling back under their rocks.”

Biden is well able for that fight. In fact, because of the respect he is held in here and in the world, his support among people of color, particularly AAs, and his years fighting for human rights, he is the most likely to succeed.

The young Joe we see here is not diminished, but strengthened over time by wisdom and finesse. He can still call a liar a liar to his face.

[Cha]

7. I had no idea this was going on..

One other thing that Biden was going for him is that he keeps on getting endorsements. He has gotten more this month from members of Congress or governors (3) than the rest of the field combined (0). That's important because, as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has pointed out, endorsements tend to be more predictive when they happen closer to the primary season.

They know Joe Biden.. they've worked with him for years!

Good article by Harry Enten.. Mahalo, hpd!

Mele Kalikimaka!

[Gothmog]

8. Joe Biden also leading the polls and the icing on the cake is Voters LOVE Biden!

Link to tweet

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. K&R